Hey everyone, it’s Mindy from Tony’s Picks! I’ve got a NCAAF pick for you today between Rutgers and USC—hopefully, you’ll love it. But before we get started, make sure you like, subscribe, and click on the bell to get the latest notifications. Also, be sure to check out Tonyspicks.com to get my very best plays every single day.
Struggling Teams: Rutgers and USC in Conference Play
Alright, here we go. It’s kind of the battle of the bads, right? Rutgers is 1-3, and USC is 1-4 in conference play. I don’t think this is what we would have expected at the beginning of the season, especially for this USC team. But yeah, it’s maybe time for the old Fighting Lincoln Riley’s to step up here in this one.
Rutgers has a QB that is just not performing well right now. He’s ranked 73rd in the nation, averaging 191 yards per game, with a QBR of 19.3. But they do have a great running back in Monangai. I mean, that guy is amazing. I would literally give it to him every single time—he averages eight yards per carry. They can’t stop him, and he can’t be beat. I don’t know why they don’t utilize him more, but hey, I’m not the coach, it’s Schiano.
USC’s Edge at Home and Efficiency Advantage
Now, on the other hand, you’ve got Miller Moss. He’s been excellent, averaging 279 yards per game with a QBR of 139, ranking 12th in the nation. I like what USC is doing lately, especially at home. At home, they’re 3-0 against the spread, and I like teams that cover spreads—a lot.
If we look at USC’s performance at home, their moving average is 6.7 points above the ATS number. They’ve beaten teams like Penn State and Wisconsin, and I feel like they’re much better than this Rutgers team.
Prediction: Take USC and Lay the Points
Looking at offensive and defensive efficiencies, the higher the number, the better. On my scale, USC is at 74 for offense, while defense for Rutgers is at 41—that’s not good. Rutgers is at 51 on offense, while defense for USC stands at 69. It’s a clear efficiency advantage for USC.
Oh, and one more thing: Rutgers is dealing with a lot of injuries on defense. Miller Moss is going to have a field day here. So let’s go ahead and take the Trojans. We’re not scared; we’ll lay the 14. They should be better than this anyway, right?
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