Hey everyone, it’s Mindy from Tony’s Picks! I’m excited to bring you this matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and, of course, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This conference matchup is here in Tampa. But before we dive in, make sure you like and subscribe, and click on the bell to get the latest notifications. If you love this video, head over to tonyspicks.com every single day.
Quarterbacks Comparison: Mayfield vs. Jackson
Alright, let’s get into what’s going on in this matchup. If we look at these two quarterbacks, you can actually say that Baker Mayfield is doing better statistically than Lamar Jackson. He completes 70.9% of his passes compared to Jackson’s 67%. Mayfield has also thrown for more yards, with 15 touchdowns compared to Jackson’s 10. And he has a higher touchdown completion percentage—one of those advanced stats—coming in at 7.9%, making him more efficient than Jackson.
Running Backs: A Lopsided Comparison
Now, let’s talk about the running backs, and this is where it gets really lopsided. I’m sure you all realize this, but Derrick Henry is a total beast. He has 704 yards this season compared to Rashad White or whoever it will be for the Buccaneers—both of whom have about 187 yards total this season. Derrick Henry also has eight touchdowns, while Rashad White has zero. Henry ranks in the 91st percentile among running backs in the NFL, so he’s totally crushing it.
The key here will be whether Baker Mayfield can outperform Lamar Jackson and if they can stop the run at all.
Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10/21/24 – Defensive Edge and Advanced Stats
Let’s take a look at some defensive numbers because I almost give the edge to Mike Evans over Zay Flowers. We see the Buccaneers’ defense performing pretty well—they only allow 59 yards per game and are eighth in yards against. Not too shabby on the defensive side! In terms of defensive efficiency, they rank ninth in the NFL, compared to Baltimore’s 23rd ranking.
When we look at special teams, the Buccaneers have the advantage—they’re fast on defense, with a special teams efficiency of 63.1 compared to 45.7 for the Ravens. If the Buccaneers can play well on defense, they have a really good shot at winning this game.
Blitz Percentage and Spread Analysis
Now, let’s look at some advanced team defensive stats. The Buccaneers pretty much dominate the Ravens in this area. Their blitz percentage is 25%, compared to the Ravens’ 18%. They also hurry the quarterback 7.2% of the time, while Baltimore only manages 2.4%.
When it comes to betting, we’re always focused on the spread and how the cash flows. The cover percentages are about the same—66% for both teams. But if you look at the favorites, the Buccaneers cover 80% of the time on the moneyline. For non-conference and away games, it’s clear the Buccaneers, not the Ravens, have the upper hand. They’re 4-1 in their conference, covering the spread 80% of the time. Overall, they cover 66.7% of the time and beat their opponents by an average of 11.9 points. Meanwhile, the Ravens only win by 1.8 points on average.
Prediction: Buccaneers to Cover
For me, this suggests that if the Buccaneers play even halfway decent defense, they should cover this game. So, that’s my pick—I’m taking Tampa Bay at home to cover the 4.5-point spread. Based on my modeling, I have them winning by 5.67 points. I’m all over the Buccaneers at home, hoping they can score more touchdowns than Derrick Henry because that’s what it’s going to come down to.
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