Hi there, everybody! It’s Rodd and Ron coming at you with Game 5 of the WNBA Finals between the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty, happening on Sunday, October 20th, 2024. Before we get to our winner-take-all selection, I just want to say, if you’re new to Tony’s Picks, welcome aboard! We’re glad to have you. Make sure you subscribe, give us a thumbs up—it’s greatly appreciated—and let us know who you think is going to win the championship in the comments section below.
Game 5: Lynx vs. Liberty
Alright, it’s down to one game—winner takes all. The line is set at 5.5 in favor of the Liberty, with the total at 157.5. What do you think about this one, Ron?
Ron’s Analysis
Yeah, well, you know, if you’ve been following these videos, we’re 16-4 in the playoffs. We’ve done a heck of a job, and it all culminates in Game 5. We’ll be in prime time, up against Sunday Night Football—I’m not sure how that’s going to work out, but I’ll be flipping back and forth for sure.
Looking at this game, I still think the Liberty are probably the team to win it; we said that at the beginning. But, man, 5.5 points? I still have to go with the Lynx here. The Lynx are 16-6-1 on the road ATS, and 4-1 as an ATS road underdog. We’ve been backing them all season, and while they might not win, we’re going to take the Lynx +5.5.
Rodd’s Take
I agree with you, Ron. We’ve got to go with the Lynx. They’re giving us well over a possession, and what have we seen in the last two games? It’s come right down to the wire, down to who had the ball last and fired a shot—one went in, the other didn’t. It’s come down to a win-or-take-all Game 5, and the books are giving us 5.5 points. I’m with you; got to go with the Lynx.
Trends and Stats
Let’s look at some trends: teams revenging a road loss between two top teams, dating back to 1990, are 22-3, which favors the Liberty getting their revenge and potentially winning the championship. But the Lynx this season, after a home win, are 18-1 ATS. And when they’ve been a home dog and got the win, they’re 7-0 ATS dating back to 2022. Also, keep in mind the New York Liberty, in this spot—third game in five nights—are 0-5 ATS.
So, give us the Lynx in this one. I might even sprinkle a little on the moneyline. Don’t forget, the Liberty are 0-5 in closeout finals games, so they still need to shake off that monkey on their back if they’re going to win this one. But yeah, give me those Lynx and those points.
Prediction and Final Thoughts
As for the total, I think it goes over. The line was set at 156-157, and they lowered it too much. I think we easily get into the 160s in this one. We’ve seen more high-scoring games in New York, and the trend dipped a bit in Minnesota. I agree; I like the over, and I like the Lynx to cover. If the Liberty can’t overcome their past, the monkey stays, and that would be massive.
Thanks to everyone who has tuned in to these videos. We appreciate each and every one of you. It’s been a great season, and we definitely look forward to the next one. Make sure you tune in on Sunday and enjoy this game because, man, the WNBA has been really exciting, and hey, we’ve been making money—let’s make one more in this one.
Thanks, everybody! Have a wonderful Sunday. Don’t forget to check out our Best Bets in the NFL because those are also going today. You can find the links in the description. Have a good one, and we’ll catch you next season!
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