Chargers vs Cardinals Prediction 10/21/24

What a night for Monday Night Football in Glendale Arizona! 82 Degrees, wind at 2.5 mph and of course zero chance of rain! That’s way better than 57 degrees and rain that I must endure. Yuck! The Chargers are taking on the Cardinals in this non-conference match-up. The Chargers are 3-2 on the season, 2nd in their conference, coming off a nice win over the Denver Broncos on the road 23-16. The Cardinals are 2-4, 3rd in the NFC West, after losing badly to the Green Bay Packers 34-13. The Cardinals turned the ball over 3 times and could never get anything going in Lambeau. Both teams need this win badly to keep any playoff hopes alive. Let’s dig into the data.

Can the Chargers Win Tonight?

The 2024 Chargers rely on the run and defense to win games. It’s unusual for me to not highlight the quarterback play in my breakdown, but Herbert has been almost invisible. This is so un-Herbert like since we are used to him putting up big numbers. Herbert has put up a whopping 815 yards in 6 games with 6 TD’s. This is 34.8% under league average this year. Running back J.K. Dobbins is averaging 87.6 yards per game with 3 touchdowns on the year. He has the statistical head-to-head advantage over Arizona’s James Conner. This game is still going to come down to defense. The Chargers are 2nd in defensive efficiency, only allowing 5 touchdowns all season. The Chargers special teams also rank 14th while the cardinals are dead last. If the Chargers can limit their turnovers, slow the clock and keep Kyler Murray in the pocket, they can win.

More…

J.K. Dobbins has scored a Touchdown in his last 4 when his team is the favorite
The Cardinals have failed to Cover the spread in his last 4 Monday night games
The Chargers have gone UNDER the total in their last 7 games
The Chargers have scored first in their last 5 games
The Cardinals have lost 8 of their last 9 against the AFC

Can the Cardinals Win Tonight!

Quarterback Kyler Murray is off to a hot start this year. He has put up 1186 yards with 8 touchdowns. His quarterback rating is 98.8 which is 5.6% greater than league average this year. Trey McBride has been Murray’s main target since Arizona’s top receiver Marvin Harrison Jr had been sidelined with a concussion. McBride is targeted 66.2% more than other tight ends in the league and will be an integral part if the cardinals want to get this win. The Cardinals are also very efficient in the red zone at 58.8%. This is 7% better than most teams in the league. The Cardinals defense has allowed 163 points this season which is almost 3 times more than the Chargers so being efficient on offense is a must.

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James Conner has scored a touchdown in his last 4 Monday night games
James Conner has recorded 86+ rushing yards in his last 5 games
Zay Jones has scored a touchdown in his last 2 games vs the Chargers
The Arizona Defense has 5 Interceptions in 5 Games this season
The Arizona Cardinals have lost the first half as home underdogs in their last 7 games

Chargers -1.5 vs. Cardinals – O/U 44 – Prediction for 10/21/2024

After sifting through the numbers, the edge in this game emerges. What is the old saying? Defense wins championships. That’s right, I’m going with the better defensive team in this game. The fighting Harbaugh’s. The Chargers have covered the spread 60% of the time this season with an average point differential of 5. My modeling has the Chargers winning 21-19 so I am going to stay out of the way of that 1.5 spread. The overall efficiency numbers still favor the Chargers by 31.2% so as long as Herbert doesn’t turnover the ball, we should be golden.

Mindy’s Pick: Chargers ML -120

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