Free NFL Picks For Today, Sunday 10/20/2024
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Patriots at Jaguars 9:30PM ET—New England left tackle is out with their running back Stevenson and left guard questionable. On defense a corner is questionable. Jacksonville running back Etienne is questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. New England fell to 1-5 following their 41-21 home defeat to Houston. The Patriots gained 291 yards with 82 rushing for 3.1 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 368 yards to the Texans with 192 rushing for 6.9 yards a carry. Drake Maye completed 20 of 33 for 243 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Jacksonville drops to 1-5 with their 35-16 defeat in London to the Chicago Bears. The Jaguars put up 278 yards with 68 rushing for 3.3 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 273 yards to the Bears with 152 rushing for 5.2 yards a carry.
The Pick:
Jacksonville has a significant injury advantage in this game based on the Chao ratings. The Patriots offensive line is banged up as is their running back. Maye practiced this week and had a knee issue entering this week. They have a low injury score on offense of 71.5. New England runs 4.6 yards a carry and has been inaccurate and inefficient in the passing game with 4.6 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots defense allows 6.9 yards per pass attempt. The Jaguars rush for 5.3 yards a carry and struggled with inaccuracy and efficiency at the quarterback position. Etienne health at running back is a concern here. New England is 11-4 to the under away from home against the AFC. Jacksonville is 8-1 to the under as a favorite. Rain and wind in the forecast in London. Play New England and Jacksonville under 42.
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Dolphins at Colts 1PM ET—Tua remains on IR for Miami. Receiver Beckham and their right tackle are questionable. On defense a safety is doubtful with two linebackers questionable. Indianapolis running back Taylor and receiver Downs are out. Receiver Pittman and Pierce are questionable as is their right tackle. On defense a linebacker is doubtful with defensive end questionable. Miami improves to 2-3 after their 15-10 road win at New England. The Dolphins put up 372 yards with 193 rushing for 4.7 yards a carry. On defense they surrendered 299 yards to the Patriots with 148 passing on 34 attempts. Tyler Huntly completed 18 of 31 passes for 194 yards with an interception. Indianapolis sits at 3-3 following their 20-17 road win at Tennessee. The Colts gained 269 yards with 80 rushing yards for 2.9 yards a carry. Defensively they held the Titans to 241 yards with 95 yards passing on 27 attempts. Joe Flacco hit 22 of 38 for 189 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
Miami has a slight injury advantage here based on Dr. Chao ratings. The Dolphins offense is the healthiest of the four units on the field. Miami is rushing for 3.9 yards per carry with 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Defensively they allow 4.7 yards a carry with only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Indianapolis rushes for 4.6 yards a carry but has struggled with accuracy at the quarterback position. The Colts are a poor defensive team, surrendering 155 yards rushing per game with 70% completions against for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. The Taylor injury is huge for the Colts run attack. The Pass offense has a low injury score of 65.8. Miami is 3-1 to the spread on the road facing teams that allow 7 yards per pass attempt or higher. Indianapolis is 2-7 to the spread at home against losing teams. Play Miami +3.
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Lions at Vikings 1PM ET—Detroit has a right guard questionable. On defense a cornerback is questionable. Their pass rusher Hutchinson is on IR. Minnesota running back Aaron Jones is questionable. On defense a linebacker is out with nose tackle questionable. Detroit improved to 4-1 following their 47-9 road win at Dallas. The Lions gained 492 yards with 184 rushing for 5.1 yards a carry. On defense they held the Cowboys to 251 yards with 53 rushing for 3.1 yards a carry. Jared Goff completed 18 of 25 passes for 313 yards with three touchdowns. Minnesota enters play at 5-0 after their 23-17 victory in London to the NY Jets. The Vikings gained 253 yards with 82 rushing for 2.7 yards a carry. On defense they limited the Jets to 254 yards with 36 rushing for 2.6 yards a carry. Sam Darnold hit 14 of 31 for 179 yards and an interception.
The Pick:
Minnesota an injury advantage in this game based on the Dr. Chao injury scores. The Lions defense has the lowest score at 76.9. Detroit offense is the healthiest unit in this game. Detroit is rushing for 4.8 yards a carry and getting high efficiency at the quarterback position with 71.2% completions and 8.4 yards per pass attempt. On defense the Lions hold opponents to 4.2 yards a carry and only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota rushes for 4.1 yards per carry with 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They have defended well by limiting foes to 3.6 yards a carry and 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Detroit is 15-5 to the spread on the road. Minnesota is 1-7 to the spread at home against teams that average 130 or greater yards rushing per game. The Lions health and efficiency on offense are the key here. Play Detroit +1.5.
Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Texans at Packers 1PM ET—Houston offensive starters are healthy. On defense two linebackers a safety and corner are out. A defensive tackle is questionable. Green Bay starters on offense are healthy. On defense a tackle is out. Houston improved to 5-1 following their 41-21 road win at New England. The Texans put up 368 yards with 192 rushing for 6.9 yards a carry. Defensively they held the Patriots to 291 yards with 82 rushing for 3.1 yards per carry. CJ Stroud hit 20 of 31 for 192 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Green Bay moves to 4-2 with their 34-13 home win to Arizona. The Packers gained 437 yards with 179 rushing for 4.7 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 303 yards to the Cardinals with 89 rushing for 3.9 yards per attempt. Jordan Love connected on 22 of 32 for 258 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
Green Bay has a clear injury advantage based on the Dr Chao ratings. The Houston defense has the lowest injury score of all the four units by far at 79.9. Green Bay offense is the healthiest of the four units with a 92 score. Houston averages 4.5 yards per run with 68% completion rate for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. On defense they give up 4.6 yards a carry and only 53% completion rate. Green Bay is an efficient offensive team. They run for 5.1 yards a carry and average 7.8 yards per pass attempt. On defense they hold foes to 4.3 yards per carry and 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Houston has a 27-point loss at Minnesota. They are 1-3 to the spread on the road against teams that average 5.65 yards per play or greater. Advantage too great health wise for the Packers offense. Play Green Bay -3.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NY Giants NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Eagles at Giants 1PM ET—Philadelphia tight end Goedert is out. On defense a corner is questionable. New York starters are healthy on offense. On defense a nose tackle and linebackers are questionable. Philadelphia improved to 3-2 following their 20-16 home win to Cleveland. The Eagles gained 373 yards with 116 rushing for 3.2 yards a carry. On defense they held the Browns to 244 yards with 144 passing on 23 attempts. Jalen Hurts completed 16 of 25 for 264 yards with two touchdowns. NY fell to 2-4 after their 17-7 home defeat to Cincinnati. The Giants gained 309 yards with 119 rushing for 3.8 yards per run. Defensively they allowed 304 yards to the Bengals with 121 rushing for 6 yards a carry. Daniel Jones hit 22 of 41 for 205 yards with an interception.
The Pick:
Philadelphia has a light injury advantage based on the Chao ratings. Both teams have high injury scores. The Eagles are averaging 4.7 yards per rush with 68% completions for 7 yards per pass attempt. On defense they surrender 4.8 yards per run with only 61% completion rate. New York is a poor offensive team with 3.9 yards a carry with 5.8 yards per pass attempt. A poor rush defensive team allowing 5.2 yards a carry and surrender 71.4% completion rate. NY is 0-3 to the spread at home facing teams that average 7 yards per pass attempt or greater. Play Philadelphia -3.
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Titans at Bills 1PM ET—Tennessee quarterback Levis is questionable. On defense a corner is questionable. Buffalo starters on offense and defense are healthy. Tennessee drops to 1-4 after their 20-17 home defeat to Indianapolis. The Titans gained 241 yards with 146 rushing for 5.3 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 279 yards to the Colts with 80 rushing for 2.9 yards a carry. Will Levis connected on 16 of 27 for 95 yards with a touchdown and interception. Buffalo is 4-2 after their 23-20 road win at NY Jets. The Bills put up 359 yards with 149 rushing for 4.5 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 383 yards to the Jets with 272 passing on 35 attempts. Josh Allen hit 19 of 25 for 215 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Tennessee has a light injury advantage based on Dr Chao injury scores. They rush for 4.4 yards a carry with 64.8% completions for 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Defense is where the Titans shine as they allow four yards a carry with five yards per pass attempt. Buffalo rushes for 4.3 yards a carry with 63% completions for 7 yards per pass attempt. Buffalo is poor in run stopping as they allow 140 yards and 5.3 yards per pass attempt. The Bills allow 66% completion rate. The Titans have high injury scores on both sides of the field. The Bills rush defense a concern when laying these many points in an NFL game. Buffalo is 2-4 to the spread at home against a losing team. Play Tennessee +9.5.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Bengals at Browns 1PM ET—Cincinnati starters on offense and defense are healthy. Cleveland running back Chubb is questionable as is their center. On defense a linebacker and safety are questionable. Cincinnati improved to 2-4 following their 17-7 road win at NY Giants. The Bengals gained 294 yards with 121 rushing for six yards a carry. On defense they allowed 309 yards to the Giants with 190 passing on 41 attempts. Joe Burrow hit 19 of 28 for 208 yards. Cleveland moves to 1-5 after their 20-16 road defeat to Philadelphia. The Browns put up 244 yards with 100 rushing for four yards per carry. On defense they allowed 372 yards to the Eagles with 256 passing on 25 attempts. Deshaun Watson completed 16 of 23 for 168 yards.
The Pick:
Cincinnati has a clear injury advantage based on the Chao ratings by 8.3 rating points. The Browns offense is the most injured unit with a low injury rating of 75.2. Cincinnati rushes for 4.5 yards a carry and has an efficient pass offense with 71.6% completions with 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland runs for 4.3 yards a carry and an inefficient passing game with 4.3 yards per pass attempt. On defense the Browns are surrendering 4.7 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals have won their past two road games by double digits. Cincinnati is 8-1 to the spread on the road facing poor defenses that allow 5.65 yards per play or greater. Play Cincinnati -6.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Seahawks at Falcons—Seattle right tackle is out. On defense both corners are out. The Atlanta fullback is out. On defense two linebackers are out with a safety questionable. Seattle sits at 3-3 following their 36-24 home defeat to San Francisco last Thursday night. The Seahawks posted 358 yards with 52 rushing for 2.6 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 483 yards to the 49ers with 228 rushing for 6.9 yards a carry. Geno Smith completed 30 of 52 for 312 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Atlanta improved to 4-2 with their 38-20 road win at Carolina. The Falcons gained 423 yards with 198 rushing for 5.2 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 335 yards to the Panthers with 221 passing on 38 attempts. Kirk Cousins hit 19 of 30 for 225 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
Atlanta has a light injury advantage based on Dr Chao’s rating. Seattle is rushing for 4.6 yards a carry and are completing 69% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Defensively they surrender 5 yards per run with 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Atlanta is rushing for 4.7 yards a carry and an efficient passing game with 7.3 yards per pass attempt. The Falcons defense allows 4.4 yards per run by 73.2% completions for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. There is a rest advantage for the Seahawks here. The Falcons have gone over in three straight. Seattle is over in five of six. The Seahawks are 7-2 to the over on the road facing a team that averages 350 yards per game or greater. Play Seattle and Atlanta over 51.
Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Commanders NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Panthers at Commanders 4PM ET—Carolina right tackle is out with receiver Johnson and tight end Tremble questionable. On defense a left end and linebacker are out with another linebacker doubtful. The right end is questionable. Washington running back Robinson is questionable. On defense their right end is out with left end questionable. Carolina falls to 1-5 following their 38-20 home defeat to Atlanta. The Panthers posted 337 yards with 114 rushing for 4.8 yards a carry. On defense they gave up 423 yards to the Falcons with 198 rushing for 5.2 yards per run. Andy Dalton hit 26 of 38 for 221 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Washington moves to 4-2 with their 30-23 road defeat to Baltimore. The Commanders gained 305 yards with 52 rushing for 2.9 yards a carry. Defensively they surrendered 484 yards to the Ravens with 308 passing on 26 attempts. Jayden Daniels went 24 of 35 for 269 yards with two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Washington has a significant injury advantage based on Dr. Chao ratings. The advantage is +18.2 in the ratings. Carolina has a very low 70.6 injury score with the defense at 63. Washington offense is the healthiest unit with a rating of 91.2 making this a huge discrepancy. Carolina averages 4.7 yards per run but is inefficient in the passing game with 5.4 yards per pass attempt. On defense they allow 4.5 yards per run with 70% completions for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The Commanders rush for 5.1 yards a carry with 67% completions for 74.6% completion rate for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. On defense they are allowing five yards per run with 70% completions for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. All the Panther’s losses this season have been by 10 or more points. Play Washington -9.5.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. LA Rams NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Raiders at Rams 4PM ET—Las Vegas right guard is out with their receiver Meyers doubtful. Running back White is questionable. On defense a left tackle and linebacker are out with their right tackle questionable. LA receiver Kupp and Whittington are questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. Las Vegas falls to 2-4 following their 32-13 home defeat to Pittsburgh. The Raiders gained 275 yards with 57 rushing for three yards per run. On defense they allowed 293 yards to the Steelers with 183 rushing for 5.2 yards a carry. Aiden O’Connell completed 27 of 40 passes for 227 yards with a touchdown and interception. LA drops to 1-4 with their 24-19 home defeat to Green Bay. The Rams gained 370 yards with 134 rushing for 4.8 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 328 yards to the Packers with 202 passing on 26 attempts. Matthew Stafford hit 29 of 45 for 260 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
No injury advantage in this game based on the Chao ratings. The healthiest unit is the Raiders defense. Las Vegas averages 3.7 yards a carry with 68.4% completions for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. On defense the Raiders allow five yards per rush with 67.2% completions for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Rams rush for 4 yards a carry with 67% completion rate for 6.4 yards per attempt. Defensively they allow 158 yards rushing per game for 4.8 yards a carry. Their pass defense has been very poor by giving up 70% completions for 8.4 yards per pass attempt. The Rams have rest advantage, but their only win came against an injured 49ers team at home. The Raiders are 8-6 as a road underdog. Play Las Vegas +7.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Chiefs at 49ers—Kansas City receiver Smith-Schuster is questionable. Receiver Rice and running back Pacheco are out. On defense an end is out. San Francisco receiver Jennings and running back McCaffrey are out. Their defensive starters are healthy. Their placekicker remains out. Kansas City improved to 5-0 following their 26-13 home victory to New Orleans. The Chiefs gained 470 yards with 139 rushing for 3.6 yards a carry. On defense they held the Saints to 220 yards with 46 rushing for three yards per run. Patrick Mahomes connected on 28 of 39 for 331 yards and an interception. San Francisco is 3-3 with their 36-24 road win at Seattle. The 49ers put up 483 yards with 228 rushing for 6.9 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 358 yards to the Seahawks with 306 passing on 52 attempts. Brock Purdy hit 18 of 28 for 255 yards and three touchdowns.
The Pick:
KC has a slight injury advantage based on Dr Chao injury ratings. The healthiest unit is the Chiefs defense with a 90.6 injury rating. Kansas City rushes for 3.9 yards a carry with 69.4% completions for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. They defend well by limiting opponents to 3.7 yards a carry and 6.5 yards per pass attempt. San Francisco rushes for 5 yards a carry with an efficient 8.5 yards per pass attempt. On defense they give up 4.4 yards a carry with 62% completions for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. With key playmaker injuries the Chiefs have gone under in three straight. KC comes in off the bye and San Francisco has significant rest having play on Thursday night. Play Kansas City and San Francisco under 47.
NY Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Pick Prediction 10/20/2024
Jets at Steelers—New York tight end Conklin is questionable. On defense a nickel back is out with corner questionable. Pittsburgh center Frazier is out. Their defensive starters are healthy. NY drops to 2-4 following their 23-20 home defeat to Buffalo. The Jets gained 383 yards with 121 rushing for 5.8 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 359 yards to the Bills with 149 rushing for 4.5 yards a carry. Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 35 for 294 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Pittsburgh improved to 4-2 with their 32-13 road win at Las Vegas. The Steelers put up 293 yards with 183 rushing for 5.2 yards a carry. On defense they held the Raiders to 275 yards with 218 passing on 40 attempts. Justin Fields hit 14 of 24 for 145 yards.
The Pick: Pittsburgh will make the switch to a healthy Russell Wilson at quarterback. He was accurate under center for Denver last year with 66.4% completions but a career low 6.9 yards per pass attempt. NY has a slight injury advantage based on the Chao ratings. Here we have a healthy Jets offense against a healthy Steeler defense. A banged-up Steelers offense facing a banged-up Jets defense. NY averages 3.9 yards a carry with only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. On defense they hold opponents to 4.3 yards a carry with 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh rushes for 3.6 yards a carry with 68.3% completions for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh defense holds opponents to 3.3 yards per run but 69.4% completions for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. NY offense has been struggling the past three games and Rodgers must rebuild chemistry with Adams. Digging deep into intangibles has the Steelers coaching are miles ahead of the Jets here. That is what you must factor here with each team adding an impact piece into their offensive system. Play Pittsburgh +1.5.