Millz Young here, part of Tony’s Picks, and we’re about to go over the fights that are going to finish and the fights that are going to go the distance for this week’s UFC Fight Night card. The event is headlined by Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez, taking on Michel Pereira. If you guys want more of my exclusive picks and packages, head on over to Tony’s Picks—that’s where you can get more of my exclusive bets on this week’s MMA card and everything up and coming in the future.
Fight 1: Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne
Alright, so the first fight that we’ve got, we’ve got a big favorite. We’ve got Robelis Despaigne taking on Austen Lane. Robelis Despaigne is about a -350 on the books, up to a -400. He usually finishes all of his opponents inside the distance, but not as of late, because his last fight got extended to the scorecards. But in this fight, they’ve got the under 2.5 rounds at like -750, and they’ve got the under 1.5 at -300. I think the under 1.5 is the way the fight is going to play out.
So if you guys are looking for something to parlay, you know, for some fights not to finish and go the distance, I would think the under 1.5 is the way to go. But Austen Lane can extend this fight a little bit and mix in the takedowns, and if he does that, you know, Robelis Despaigne might not be able to cover that price tag. Speaking of, Austen Lane used to play for the Jacksonville Jaguars, and now he’s taking on Robelis Despaigne in the first fight of the night. I lost money on Robelis Despaigne as a -170 favorite before, so there’s no way I’m betting him as a -400 favorite here. But this is all about which fights are going to finish and which are going to go the distance. I don’t think this one’s going the distance—I think it’s going under 1.5 rounds. Alright, let’s move on to the next fight.
Fight 2: Melissa Martinez vs. Alice Ardelean
Alright, so the next fight we’ve got is a women’s fight taking place: Melissa Martinez is taking on Alice Ardelean. Melissa Martinez is coming back as a -128 to -135 favorite, while Alice Ardelean is at about -102. Both these girls are coming off losses in their last fights.
They’ve got the overs—let’s talk about the overs. The over 2.5 rounds is at -360. Whenever you have a women’s fight, the overs are always going to be chalky. Those are like one of the most chalky things, but they hit probably at like an 88% rate, sometimes even higher than that. But it is what it is. That’s just something you’ve got to deal with when you’re betting women’s overs; you know they’re going to be chalky, but you know you’re always in good hands. In this one, they’ve got the fight going the distance at -350.
I think both these girls are going to be able to get to the third round. If anything happens, it might happen in the third round, but I do think this fight goes the distance. Neither of them has the finishing ability where you can say, “Oh man, her last fight, she knocked out her opponent,” or “She’s dangerous with jiu-jitsu.” None of these girls pose that kind of threat, so with that being said, I think this one’s going the distance.
Fight 3: Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed
Alright, let’s move on to the next fight. They’re giving us like three women’s fights back to back to back, alright? In this next fight, we’ve got Elise Reed taking on Jessica Penne. Elise Reed is a -170 favorite out there, while Jessica Penne is around +150.
Matchup-wise, you’ve got a grappler versus another grappler, but you’ve also got a wrestler in Elise Reed and the jiu-jitsu player in Jessica Penne. In this one, the over 2.5 rounds is at -260. The reason for that is Jessica Penne is a little bit more dangerous with her jiu-jitsu and stuff. Now, let’s say Elise Reed gets on top of you and lays on top of you for ground and pound for maybe over two minutes without any strikes back, which she hasn’t been able to do, but you never know against the right opponent.
The fight ending inside the distance is at +190, and the fight going the distance is at -240. Now, when you look at the price difference on the market, the fight going the distance is probably the way they’re saying it’s going to play out at -240, but the over 2.5 rounds is at -265. That’s only like a 20-cent difference on there. You’ve got a lot of people who probably just take the -240 because it’s a better price tag.
But let’s just say this: if you’re doing a parlay where you’re taking the over 2.5 rounds at -265 and then the over in another fight, and you’re parlaying them, it’s not a big difference. Sometimes it’s just better to be safe than sorry. I think the over 2.5 rounds should hit as well. You know, this is a fight where the fight going the distance at -240 isn’t the safest thing to bet on, because I do see a path where one of these fighters could get finished. But I do think the fight goes the distance in this one, though I wouldn’t necessarily recommend parlaying it with something else. It’s not one of those fights where you want to put all your confidence in the distance bet, because more finishing could happen here. So, I’m not going with that one.
Fight 4: Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal
Next up, we’ve got Joselyne Edwards taking on Tamires Vidal. Joselyne Edwards is a -260 favorite. She’s a clean striker, you know, likes to strike and mix in takedowns every now and then, but not really—she struggles with the takedowns, and that’s her weakness. If you can get her down to the ground, her opponents can win time and minutes. Tamires Vidal is a powerful striker, but she needs to get in close to strike.
Now let’s talk about the odds. They’ve got the over 2.5 rounds juiced to -350, and the fight going the distance is at -325. The reason why is because Joselyne Edwards—well, I think all of her fights have been won by decision. It’s just one of those things with women’s fights, where at like an 88% clip, they usually go the distance. So, I think this one goes the distance as well.
But this could be the fight where Joselyne Edwards gets her first finish. She might be able to do it in this one, but I definitely like Edwards in this spot. Let’s see what we can play to get you paid. I like Edwards to win by decision. That’s priced at around -150. The odds are telling you the fight is going the distance since the favorite to win by decision is still chalky at -150. So yeah, man, I think Joselyne Edwards gets this one done, and I think she’s just a level above Tamires Vidal in this fight.
Fight 5: Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto
Alright, next up, we’ve got a good one to talk about. We’ve got Brad Katona taking on Jean Matsumoto. Brad Katona has been a long veteran in the sport. We’ve been watching him since The Ultimate Fighter in his first season, and then he came back for the redemption season. He’s a smart fighter, sometimes too smart for his own good because he’s always thinking about what to do instead of just going out there and looking for the finish. That doesn’t always get the crowd going or make the UFC want to keep you around. That’s why he got cut from the UFC once and had to fight his way back through The Ultimate Fighter again. The guys he lost to weren’t bad fighters, but that’s why he’s back.
In this fight, I think the books are disrespecting him a little bit. Jean Matsumoto only has one fight in the UFC. We made money on him off Dan Argueta, but he’s a -260 favorite here, with some books showing -230 or -250. The line’s been jumping around.
The fight going the distance is priced at -300, while the fight ending inside the distance is at +240. The over 2.5 rounds is at -325. Jean Matsumoto is more dangerous, but Brad Katona always goes to decision. Always. I mean, like all the time. So I like Jean Matsumoto to win this fight, but I saw something interesting—Matsumoto to win inside the distance is at +260. That’s worth a little sprinkle, you know? Sprinkle some Skittles to get back some M&M’s.
Fight 6: Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev
Alright, next fight taking place, we’ve got UFC veteran Matheus Nicolau taking on Asu Almabayev. Matheus Nicolau is a -185 favorite, with some books pricing him as high as -190.
Let’s talk about the fights that will finish and go the distance because that’s what we’re here for. The over 2.5 rounds is priced at -280, and the fight going the distance is at -260, so they think this one is going the distance. But Matheus Nicolau has been finished in his last couple of losses, so that’s been a way to beat him. Asu Almabayev has a path to victory here.
The over 1.5 rounds is interesting, but the over 2.5 rounds at -280 is pretty chalky. I think the line’s a bit too in favor of the favorite because of recency bias with his wins. But in this fight, I don’t think it’s going the distance. Matheus Nicolau has been finished before, and I think he could get finished again. So give me the fight to end inside the distance at +200.
Fight 7: Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda
This fight is definitely not going the distance. Darren Elkins is taking on Daniel Pineda. This one has been flipping back and forth, with Pineda originally the favorite, but now Elkins is a slight favorite at -105.
Both these guys usually don’t go to the scorecards. The over 1.5 rounds is priced at -160, and I like that play. The fight ending inside the distance is at -200. Pineda tends to gas out after 7 minutes, maybe even after the first round, so that’s something to consider. Elkins can take damage, and I like the over 1.5 rounds at -160. I also love the fight not to go the distance at -200 because in the third round, both these guys are going to be looking for a way out. But I know Darren Elkins won’t, and if Pineda hasn’t finished Elkins by then, he’ll definitely be looking for a way out. So give me the fight not to go the distance.
Fight 8: Cameron Smotherman vs. Jake Hadley
Alright, this fight just got put together, so we don’t have too much information on it yet. Cameron Smotherman is stepping up on short notice to take on Jake Hadley. Smotherman was in Abu Dhabi cornering Rufian Stots for Bellator, and now he’s flying back to the States for this fight. The fight was just announced on Tuesday, so we don’t have odds yet. Let’s move on to the next fight.
Fight 9: Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji
Charles Johnson is taking on Sumudaerji in this one, and it’s going to be a good fight. This one could be a Fight of the Night candidate. Charles Johnson is a -200 favorite, but he’s now coming up to a -220 on the books. He’s on a three-fight win streak.
The over 2.5 rounds is at -200, and the fight going the distance is at -180. Charles Johnson usually goes to decision and scorecards. He did get a third-round KO in his last fight against Joshua Van, so I think there’s a chance he could get a submission here. But the over 2.5 rounds seems like a solid play for this fight, and I see the fight going the distance.
Both these guys have been through wars, and they’re tough, so they can take damage. In the third round, I’d sprinkle a little on Charles Johnson to finish because he’s coming off a nice third-round KO in his last fight, but overall, I think this fight goes the distance.
Co-Main Event: Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips
Alright, co-main event time! We’ve got Rob Font taking on Kyler Phillips. The over 2.5 rounds is at -220, and the fight going the distance is at -200. Kyler Phillips is a big favorite at -400, but that price is way off, in my opinion. Rob Font is a tough veteran who’s fought the best in the division. When Font fought Deiveson Figueiredo, he was only a -130 favorite, so there’s no reason why Kyler Phillips should be -400. That’s just crazy.
In this fight, I think it’s going the distance. Kyler Phillips might just be able to ragdoll Rob Font down, but I don’t think he’ll submit him. Rob Font has been able to take damage from a lot of good fighters, so give me the fight to go the distance in this one.
Main Event: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
Finally, in the main event, we’ve got Anthony Hernandez taking on Michel Pereira. Hernandez is a slight favorite at -130, and Pereira is at +115. Let me know who you guys are betting on in this one. Who do you like? Let me know in the comments below.
They’ve got the over 2.5 rounds at +105, and the under 2.5 rounds at -135. This is a five-round fight, but it’s definitely not going the distance in my eyes. I like the under 3.5 rounds at -275. Pereira is explosive in the first round and can knock anyone out—he’s had three KOs in his last few fights. Hernandez usually finishes his opponents late, drowning them out and submitting them. His finish rate is great.
The under 3.5 rounds is definitely in play. The under 2.5 at -135 is also a good bet. Once we get to the second round, Pereira will either still be able to mix in his wrestling and fight differently, or Hernandez will see Pereira’s gas tank depleting and push the pace. So give me the under 2.5 rounds at -135.
Conclusion
Alright, that wraps up our breakdown of the UFC Fight Night card for this week. Let me know who you guys have winning the main event and throughout the card. It’s Millz Young here, part of Tony’s Picks. If you want my exclusive picks and predictions, head over to the site to get your packages for this week’s MMA card. Don’t forget to hit the comments up and like the video!