Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets NFL Prediction 10/14/24

The first thing I think about when I see this matchup is those weird colored uniforms from about 5 Years ago. Remember that??? The Bills were in all bright red and the Jets wore bright green. It was like Christmas bulbs running around all over the place! It was ugly, and it looks like we are in for another ugly game on Monday night. These teams match up well on paper. On the bottom of the page that is! It’s number 27 vs 22. It’s 19 vs 24. It’s 32 vs 14 and goes on and on. The forecast for gametime in New York is 53 degrees with a 15mph wind out of the northwest. Sounds like a beer and pizza kind of night. There is always a storyline when these two Hall of Fame Quarterbacks come to town! I have found the edges in this game so let’s go to the data below.

Dolla Dolla Bills Y’all!

Josh Allen, new year, new team, new stats. Josh Allen has been getting it done in the Win/Loss column, but not so much in the stat book. He’s only averaging 198 yards in the air, has a completions percentage of 60.3% and 8 TD’s. These are very unlike Josh Allen numbers as he usually averages 238.9 passing yards per game and is the highlight of your fantasy team each week. But the last two games for the Bills have been big losers to the Texans 20-23 and the Ravens 10-35. Josh Allen went a depressing 9 for 30 passing vs the Texans.  Yuck!  But there have been highlights too. The passing game may be struggling a bit but running back James Cook has been racking up the first downs with 16 and touchdowns 4. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per attempt compared to his counterpart Breece Hall at 3.

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  • Josh Allen’s QB Rating is 103 to Rodgers 82
  • Josh Allen rarely gets sacked unlike Mr. Rodgers
  • The Bills have won the first half in each of their last 6 vs the Jets
  • The Bills are 2-0 when favored and have a margin of victory of 21.5 in those games

 

The Jets Greatest Hits!

Oh, the Jets. And The Jet lag from London last week. They are on a full-time repeat loop of controversy; the firing of head coach Robert Saleh, did Aaron Rodgers cause it, the mushroom tea, how is Rodgers’ knee injury and the trade rumors with Davante Adams. This is a lot for any team to handle but especially hard for a team struggling to either pass or run the ball in any sort of way. There is a reason why the Jets have not made the playoffs in the last 13 years. Turnovers. They turn the ball over 10.4% of the time when a team like the Bills average only 3.9%. Rodgers has 4 INT’s to Allen’s 0. But the Jets defense is exceptional as usual. The defense allows 53.8 less passing yards and 48 less rushing yards per game than the league average. The Mean Green Defense also only allows .4 touchdowns per game this season and hurry opposing quarterbacks 6.3% more than any other team this season.

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  • The underdogs have won 8 of the last 10 games between the Bills and Jets
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown 2 or more Touchdowns in 11 of his last 12 is October
  • Mike Williams has +34 receiving yards at home in his last 6 games
  • 11 of the Jets last 12 games against the NFC East have gone under the total.

 

Bills -2.5 vs. Jets +2.5 O/U 41 Free Prediction for 10/14/2024

After sifting through the analytics, the play for Monday’s game is going to be on the UNDER. The defensive efficiencies outweigh the offensive efficiencies, and the trends agree. The Under is a whopping 2-8 in all games played with these two teams this season. The Jets are 25th in points per game, they rank last in rushing yards per game, and they are 4th in sacks. Oh, and that Jets defense. The Bills are 22nd in yards per game, 25th in 3rd down efficiency percentage and 7th in interceptions. These numbers will help ensure we have a low scoring affair.

 

Mindy’s Pick: UNDER 41