MMA Locker Room here with Tony’s Picks, and we’re about to go over the fights that finish and the fights that go the distance. Now, if you guys want more information on my MMA picks and packages, all you have to do is check me out on the site. I’ve got my three-pack for you guys, with individual picks and plays. So now you know where to get all your MMA packages and picks — right here at MMA Locker Room, in collaboration with Tony’s Picks.
Let’s get into it. This fight card we’re going over has a lot of UFC fighters making their debut, which makes it hard to get the best read on some of them. Some of these fights have odds where they’re giving us over/under 2.5 rounds. Of course, you can always bet on fights to either go the distance or finish early. I’m going to let you guys know which way I lean — whether I’m favoring over 2.5 rounds, round three to start, or if I expect the fight to finish early or go the distance.
Clayton Carpenter vs. Lucas Rocha
Let’s go ahead and get it started. The first fight of the night, we’ve got Clayton Carpenter taking on Lucas Rocha. Like I mentioned earlier, two fighters making their UFC debut. The over 2.5 rounds is at -140, while the under 2.5 is at +101. I like the over 2.5 here, based on the favorite. Clayton Carpenter’s path to victory usually involves taking the fight to decision and implementing his wrestling. So, I think the over 2.5 is a good bet, and you don’t even have to wait too long. On the other side, Lucas Rocha is a guy who can finish a fight at any moment. He can be down in round one and then turn it around with an explosive knockout in round two. He doesn’t need a lot of strikes to finish opponents, but I still think this fight is going to go the distance.
Daniel Argueta vs. Cody Haddon
Next fight up, we’ve got Daniel Argueta taking on Cody Haddon. Cody Haddon is the favorite, but Argueta is going to be the wrestler here, while Haddon is the striker. The over 2.5 rounds is set at -176, and I like the over in this fight as well. Haddon does have a path to victory with his hands, but Argueta is wrestling-heavy and has top-tier cardio for at least seven to eight minutes. After that, he tends to slow down. I think this fight can go the distance, and I would lean toward betting the fight to go the distance rather than just the over 2.5 rounds to get a better line. The only one with real finishing potential here is Cody Haddon, and if there’s only one fighter with finishing ability, that’s usually a sign to bet the fight going the distance.
Cory McKenna vs. Julia Polastri
Next, we’ve got a women’s fight: Cory McKenna taking on Julia Polastri. Julia is a slight favorite at -135. The over 2.5 rounds is heavily favored at -460, and the under 2.5 is +285. As is often the case with women’s fights, we’re seeing chalky favorites for the fight to go over and to go the distance. Julia is the cleaner striker, while Cory McKenna is a grappler who trains at Team Alpha Male. I like the fight to go the distance here. I’m not recommending a bet on the over 2.5 rounds because of the odds, but I think Julia wins by decision.
Junior Tafa vs. Sean Sharaf
Next, we were supposed to have Junior Tafa taking on Chris Barnett, but now it’s Junior Tafa vs. Sean Sharaf. We don’t have odds for this yet, but I don’t think this fight is going the distance. Junior Tafa tends to finish his opponents in the first round, and Sean Sharaf is another explosive fighter who finishes his opponents early. I’d take the under 1.5 rounds, and if you can get more specific odds, bet on the fight finishing in the first round. One of these guys is getting touched, and one of them is going down.
Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price
Now we have Themba Gorimbo taking on Niko Price. Themba is a big favorite at -300. The over 2.5 rounds is at -106, and the under is at +130. Niko Price is explosive and dangerous, with a history of finishing opponents in crazy ways, like when he knocked a guy out from the ground with a hammerfist. Themba, on the other hand, has been able to go to decisions, though he did knock out Pete Rodriguez — but then again, who hasn’t knocked out Pete Rodriguez? I’m taking a shot with the over 2.5 rounds, but I’m also considering round three to start. That just means they need to fight for 10 minutes, and I think Themba can do that. That said, this is a tricky one. If you want to play it safe, bet that the fight doesn’t go the distance.
Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
In the next fight, Jonathan Pearce takes on Pat Sabatini. The over 2.5 rounds is at -191, and the under is at +136. This is a grappler vs. grappler matchup, and Jonathan Pearce is the slight favorite. Sabatini is dangerous, with great submission skills, while Pearce is tough but has a tendency to leave his neck exposed. I like the over 2.5 rounds at -190 because both guys are tough and push the pace with their wrestling and cardio. But Sabatini’s jiu-jitsu could be a factor if Pearce makes a mistake. Despite the plus money on the under, I don’t think it’s a good bet. I’d stick with the over 2.5 rounds and expect the fight to go the distance.
CJ Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov
Next, we’ve got CJ Vergara taking on Ramazan Temirov. Temirov is a big favorite at -300, and the over 2.5 rounds is at -190. Vergara typically goes to decision, but Temirov is making his UFC debut and has explosive striking. I think this fight won’t go the distance. The under 2.5 rounds is at +137, so I’d take a shot at that. Temirov’s striking is top-tier, and I think he can finish Vergara.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Josh Fremd
The next fight is Abdul Razak Alhassan taking on Josh Fremd. The over 1.5 rounds is at -146, and the under is at +105. Alhassan used to have a crazy stat where all his wins came by first-round knockout. But recently, he’s slowed down a bit. Fremd isn’t known for his finishing ability, so I like the over 1.5 rounds here. However, I don’t think the fight will go the distance because of Alhassan’s finishing ability. If he gets held down and gasses out, Fremd might take advantage. But the fight ending before the final bell seems likely.
To summarize, I’ve given you guys the best ways to bet beyond just picking winners. You can bet round props, method of victory, or even whether the fight will go to a decision. There are so many ways to get paid in MMA. That’s what we do here at MMA Locker Room — make money anyway!
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono
Next up, we’ve got Daniel Rodriguez taking on Alex Morono. I like D-Rod in this spot, but the over 2.5 rounds is at -200, and the under is at +142. Both of these fighters are durable, and they don’t rush to finish opponents. I like the over 2.5 rounds here, and I think the fight goes the distance.
Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia
In the next fight, Grant Dawson takes on Rafa Garcia. Dawson is a big favorite at -400, and the over 2.5 rounds is at -295. Both guys are going to look for takedowns, so I like the over 2.5 rounds and the fight going to the scorecards. Dawson by decision seems like a solid bet.
Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
In another matchup, Chidi Njokuani takes on Jared Gooden. The over 2.5 rounds is at +115, while the under is at -160. I’m going with the under here. I don’t think this fight makes it far into the second round, and I’d even consider the under 1.5 rounds for better odds.
Brad Tavares vs. JunYong Park
Finally, we’ve got Brad Tavares taking on JunYong Park. This fight was rebooked, and both guys usually go to the scorecards. The over 2.5 rounds is at -260, so it’s a chalky bet. I’d recommend parlaying that with some other fights for better odds. Expect the fight to go the distance.
Main Event: Tatsuro Taira vs. Brandon Royval
Main event time! We’ve got Tatsuro Taira taking on Brandon Royval. The over 3.5 rounds is at +130, while the under is at -106. This is Taira’s second opportunity in a five-round fight, but he hasn’t gone five rounds yet. Royval, on the other hand, has been in championship-level fights before. I don’t think this fight is going the distance. I’d lean toward the under 3.5 rounds.
Conclusion
That’s it for today, folks. If you want more videos and information, check me out on my YouTube page, where I interview fighters and cover MMA media. Let me know who you guys are betting on for these fights and which ones you think will go the distance. Millz Young here, part of Tony’s Picks.