This Saturday is extremely thrilling and entertaining for fans as they attend the NLDS Game 1 between the New York Mets (89-73) and the Philadelphia Phillies (95-67) at the crowded Citizens Bank Park. Given the nature of playoffs and this match-up, it is easy to see this as a pillar for baseball best free picks. When the game starts at 4:08 PM ET with the Phillies at home, fans everywhere can watch the game on FOX, ESPN, and MLB.TV and many other networks.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10/5/24 Game Info and Odds |
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| When: | Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 4:08 PM ET |
| Where: | Citizens Bank Park |
| Watch: | FOX, ESPN, MLB.TV |
| Mets odds: | +159 Moneyline |
| Phillies odds: | -189 Moneyline |
| Total Line: | 7.5 |
New York Mets (89-73) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
The New York Mets come into this series marked as underdogs, a status underscored by their uneven end to the season and their .246 batting average. Their recent series against San Diego showcased this volatility, with the Mets securing 2 wins against 2 losses. They’ve demonstrated significant power with 207 home runs this season, suggesting potential against the Phillies’ pitchers if they can leverage their .319 on-base and .415 slugging percentages effectively.
| New York Mets Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Oct 3, 2024 | MIL | 4-2 | Win |
| Oct 2, 2024 | MIL | 3-5 | Lose |
| Oct 1, 2024 | MIL | 8-4 | Win |
| Sep 30, 2024 | ATL | 0-3 | Lose |
| Sep 30, 2024 | ATL | 8-7 | Win |
Conversely, the Philadelphia Phillies, boasting a robust 95-67 record, have demonstrated a consistent and formidable season. Their .257 batting average and 198 home runs might slightly trail the Mets in power hitting, but their superior on-base percentage (.325) and slugging percentage (.425) underscore their offensive efficiency. Notably, their recent series against Los Angeles, where they clinched 2 wins against 1 loss, highlights their ability to leverage their home-field advantage effectively.
| Philadelphia Phillies Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 29, 2024 | WSH | 6-3 | Win |
| Sep 28, 2024 | WSH | 3-6 | Lose |
| Sep 27, 2024 | WSH | 1-9 | Lose |
| Sep 25, 2024 | CHC | 9-6 | Win |
| Sep 24, 2024 | CHC | 4-10 | Lose |
David Peterson (10-3, 2.9 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.57 ERA)
David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets, and he has done very well this season with an ERA of 2.9 and WHIP of 1.29. Well, opponents have not broken the .230 batting average against him. Peterson’s effectiveness is very good especially when there aren’t many pressures as he only allows 8 home runs, but in the case, he will face the Phillies dangerous at home so this focus has to change.
On the contrary, Zack Wheeler for the Phillies also stands as one of those reliable and dominating, with 2.57 and 0.96 whips through 200 pitched innings. None other than Wheeler was able to catch 224 batters this season, which brings more pressure to the Mets hitters since he specializes in getting high-class hitters out. Given the fact that he has also pitched more than Peterson, with 20 homers allowed notwithstanding, this could be the winning factor for this opening game.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -189, Total Odds: 7.5
Considering also the present form and the game taking place on the teams’ home court, it comes as no surprise that the betting odds are in favor of the Phillies with a -189 moneyline, due mainly to their well concluded season and the current form of the team’s starting pitcher. The over/under in this case would stand at 7.5, which shows a more than average rate of scoring for the match since both teams have played more or less high scoring matches of late.
New York Mets Betting Trends
The Mets have demonstrated that they are capable of pulling off surprises, as judging by their 7-3 record against NL East opponents and the way they have played in October games. Nevertheless, their record against the Phillies on the road (3-8 SU) must worry some of their fans.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
Philadelphia has performed remarkably in their last home games suffering only 2 losses in 11 games (9-2 SU) and also holding a good home record against their rivals Mets (8-3 SU) which reinstates their favor. The trends in recent games show the teams have frequently scored more than the expected total in these games.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10/5/24 Betting Picks
It is clear from the statistics and trends that the ‘Philadelphia’ Phillies are the team to beat. They have shown the ability to win particularly at home and Zack Wheeler is efficient on the bump. Even though the Mets are the weaklings, they too have had some brilliance, particularly in the last few outings which would mean they may be less of an underdog against the Phillies than the odds show.
From a betting standpoint, the Phillies being at home is highly likely to be helpful and therefore is a nice market to produce winnings. So to bet on the over on total here is also likely to be helpful since both teams particularly now have been scoring a good number of points. For those who want better premium matchup reviews, there are prop bets on how many strikeouts or home base hits you think the players will have.