The anticipation towards UFC 307 is mostly driven by the bantamweight bout featuring veteran Jose Aldo taking on the upstart Mario Bautista, which is bound to be the firework. This is a worthy match because it presents a turning point in their professional journeys and displays the remarkable talents and tactics that enabled them to rise to this level. There is an acute difference in experience and technique between the fighter’s field, and this match is one of the most important ones for the exclusive pro handicappers who are trying to figure out the possible changes in the development of that particular division.
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista 10/5/24 Game Info |
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| When: | Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 10:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
| Aldo Odds: | +150 |
| Bautista Odds: | -175 |
Jose Aldo Analysis
Jose Aldos’ 32-8-0 record is impressive and speaks volumes about his activity level and success. With a significant strike rate of 3.63 and striking accuracy of 46%, his striking ability, particularly offensive, is well placed. Specifically, Aldo got 0.51 takedowns per 15 min with a very impressive recovery of 91%, which renders him very dangerous on the floor. His latest win over Martinez further asserts his ability to face high-level competition. Much like in the case of Kayla Harrison, who will seek to capture the Women’s Bantamweight in her next fight, we see a near identical thread of seasoned athletes, battle tested warriors who still reign supreme in their respective narratives of age and strategy.
Mario Bautista Analysis
In contrast, Mario Bautista, with even more relative experience than his predecessor, steps into the octagon with a remarkable record of 14-2-0. He has a track record of aggression, as illustrated by the more than average number of significant strikes landed per minute of 5.69. In contrast, he strikes has a defense of 53%, which indicates some element of a riskier striking approach but effective so. Bautista’s grapples are considered his strength as he chucks in a higher average of 2.25 takedowns in fifteen minutes and an average submission of 1.0. His last fight against Simon also proves that Bautista continues improving in UFC. Looking at other fighters, such as Roman Dolidze, who is about to compete in the Middleweight division, we see a tendency for new fighters to be able to achieve more and more in the divisions’ geography which breaks the standard.
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista Stats
| Aldo | Bautista | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 32-8-0 | 14-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 14:14 | 8:40 |
| Height | 5′ 7″ | 5′ 9″ |
| Weight | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach | 70″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 3.63 | 5.69 |
| Striking Accuracy | 46% | 48% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 3.73 | 3.99 |
| Defense | 60% | 53% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 0.51 | 2.25 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 53% | 44% |
| Takedown Defense | 91% | 66% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista Betting Picks
Judging from the details of both fighters and recent events, this contest does look evenly posed with some elements that might swing in any direction. Bautista’s overall grappling stats and offensive skills could be offset by Aldo’s skill set and experienced counter punching. In this fight, the key question may be whether Aldo can dictate the pace and keep the fight off the ground, using a purely striking strategy against Bautista’s relatively weak striking defense.
With specific odds given, Aldo is a -175 favorite and Bautista +150, the odds are still grazing on the dog for Bautista for value purpose. Given Aldo’s experience in the big fights, high periphery of both attack and ability to do defense could well break Bautista’s rhythm in the fight, thus could be viewed as a risky, but appealing wager.
Free Pick: Jose Aldo +150
In review, UFC 307 provides not only a stage for the bantamweight fighters of the highest level, but also for all the bettors and fans an opportunity to take part in what promises to be an action packed fight where strategies will come to the fore. This contest perfectly embodies what mixed martial arts is all about, bringing together all aspects of fighting that involve experience, skill, and tactics to bring about a great outcome. To the most anticipators of engaging with UFC 307 no-cost picks, Jose Aldo is one of the best choices as he carries both the opportunity of winning and winning the fight and winning considering betting.