What a way to start off Week 5 with this NFC South Divisional matchup. Both teams are undefeated in conference play and are ready to make a statement. Vegas anticipates a close one so it should be a fun watch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons 10/03/24 Game Info |
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| When: | Thursday, October 3, 2024, at 8:15 PM ET |
| Where: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
| TV: | Amazon |
| Stream: | NFL Game Pass |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Tampa Bay took it to Philadelphia last week on their home turf with the easy 33-16 victory. The big wins are proving to make fans big believers in the continuing Baker Mayfield comeback story. Baker threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns but maybe the even bigger story was the defense. The Bucs sacked Jalen Hurts 6 times and only allowed 114 passing yards. They also forced 2 fumbles.
The Falcons played in one of the more exciting games of the week! This game put up 50 points with the win coming off the foot of Younghoe Koo with .07 seconds left. The 58 yard kick got the 24-26 much needed victory. The Falcons special teams and defense was exceptional on Sunday. Troy Anderson intercepted Carr for a 47 yard TD return and Koo hit for another 3 field goals. Koo hasn’t missed yet this season.
Baker Mayfield QB vs. Kirk Cousins QB
Baker Mayfield has settled in nicely into the early season. He is averaging 246 yards this season with a 70.5% completion percentage and 8 touchdowns. The Bucs are 9th in scoring, 7th in passing and 11th in 3rd down efficiency.
Kirk Cousins is a feast or famine type of guy. He threw zero TD’s last week and only has 4 on the season. He averages only 216 yards a game with a 64.7% completion rating. His 3rd down efficiency is an embarrassing 26.3%, 29th in the league.
NFL Point Spread/Total: Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (-110), Total: 43.5
Atlanta opened as the favorites at -2.5 with an opening total of 42.5. Initial trends are going to the Buccaneers and the Under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends:
- The Buccaneers have won 6 of their last 7 games as underdogs
- Tampa Bay is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games
- The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in their last 8 against the NFC South
- Rachaad White has rushed for +34 yards in his last 6 vs NFC South opponents
Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 7 games as favorites against NFC opponents
- Each of the Falcons last 7 Thursday games have gone Under the total
- Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6
- Kyle Pitts has +35 receiving yards in his last 4 games following a win
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons 10/03/24 Betting Picks:
Clearly there is a huge mismatch at the quarterback position in this one. Mayfield has the edge in passing yards, completion percentage, touchdowns, time of possession and 3rd down efficiency. Kirk Cousins just leads Mayfield in…turnovers. Atlanta’s point differential is sitting at -10 on the season. The Bucs are also better on the defensive side. The Tampa defense is 19th in sacks while the Falcons are dead last in the league. Tampa Bay’s blitz % is 18.3% and I am sure they are going to use that to get to Cousins as much as possible. Take the over 1 interception prop for Kirk Cousins.
Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18, Atlanta Falcons 17.