With the conclusion of the MLB season fast approaching, the Philadelphia Phillies, with a formidable 94-67 game record, brace themselves to take on the lowly Washington Nationals, who stand at 71-90. It is perfect weather for a Sunday contest, with both teams looking for a win at Nationals Park. Let’s take a closer look at this game, making part of our MLB daily free picks to see how things pan out regarding bets and results.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals 9/29/24 Game Info and Odds |
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| When: | Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 3:05 PM ET |
| Where: | Nationals Park |
| Watch: | MASN, ESPN, MLB.TV |
| Phillies odds: | -185 Moneyline |
| Nationals odds: | +155 Moneyline |
| Total Line: | 7.5 |
Philadelphia Phillies (94-67) vs. Washington Nationals (71-90)
Despite their impressive season record, the Philadelphia Phillies have shown signs of struggle in their recent games. They come into this matchup with two consecutive losses against the Nationals, putting a dent in their otherwise robust performance. Analyzing their last five outings reveals a mixed bag: losses to the Nationals and the Cubs, interspersed with victories over the Cubs. The fluctuating performance indicates some inconsistencies, especially in their offense and bullpen management, that could play a crucial role in this game.
| Philadelphia Phillies Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 28, 2024 | WSH | 3-6 | Lose |
| Sep 27, 2024 | WSH | 1-9 | Lose |
| Sep 25, 2024 | CHC | 9-6 | Win |
| Sep 24, 2024 | CHC | 4-10 | Lose |
| Sep 23, 2024 | CHC | 6-2 | Win |
Conversely, despite their less stellar overall record, the Washington Nationals have shown glimpses of formidable play, particularly in their recent back-to-back wins against the Phillies. These victories, characterized by aggressive batting and solid pitching, may inject confidence into the team. However, their overall last five games could have been better, with losses to the Royals reflecting issues in maintaining consistent scoring and defensive strategies.
| Washington Nationals Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 28, 2024 | PHI | 6-3 | Win |
| Sep 27, 2024 | PHI | 9-1 | Win |
| Sep 26, 2024 | KC | 4-7 | Lose |
| Sep 25, 2024 | KC | 0-3 | Lose |
| Sep 24, 2024 | KC | 0-1 | Lose |
Aaron Nola (13-8, 3.52 ERA) vs. Jake Irvin (10-13, 4.22 ERA)
The ace of the Philadelphia franchise, Aaron Nola, enters the game with an admirable 3.52 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, reflecting his ingredients in minimizing the opponent’s run-scoring and thereby making himself a strong bet to give his side a win. His precision and control throughout the Nola season, in which he managed to record 190 strikeouts with just 50 walks through 194.1 innings pitched, will be important in navigating the Nationals’ lineup. But his form when pitching away from home leaves a lot to be desired, which makes his start rather interesting.
In comparison, it can be noted that Jake Irvin of the Washington Nationals, with a less remarkable record and a higher ERA of 4.22, still has a decent WHIP of 1.18, almost equivalent to that of Nola. That kind of stuff helps, but what is most important is for him to manage the terrible hitters to a mere 168 hits in 183.1 innings pitched. However, there may be a concern in terms of the number of home runs given up (29) when going up against a strong Philadelphia Phillies team that has power hitters who can change the game with a single swing.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-111), Total Odds: 7.5
Given the last season’s records, the sportsbooks seem to treat the Phillies as -1.5 point coming back favorites on losses. Still, the observations and the current uptrend against the emphatically losing Nationals make this prediction even closer than the odds suggest. The total line over 7.5 gives an expectation that it will be a high-scoring game, as both teams have shown offensively in recent games.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies have been on a high-scoring binge in their recent games, with the total going OVER in 4 of 5 games. Nonetheless, the team’s poor performance away from home, with their last 7 games ending 1-6 SU, makes it difficult for those who tend to bet on the Phillies to be confident in a favorable outcome.
Washington Nationals Betting Trends
The Nationals have proven that they can put runs on the scoreboard against their division Rivals, with the OVER betting option coming through in 4 out of the last five against NL East clubs. Moreover, their head-to-head record against the Phillies should also provide some hope, particularly considering that 4 out of the last 6 games versus Philadelphia at home went below the total.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals 9/29/24 Betting Picks
Assessing both teams in certain manners always foretells an exciting matchup. The Phillies, despite being the first siders, have proven to be a bit shaky on the road; hence placing a +1.5 spread on the Nationals is quite an enticing bet. Sports over-betting trends in recent matches indicate that the over-distance on a 7.5 total may also be a good bet.
Concerning handicappers’ picks and tips, it would be wiser for most punters to go with the Nationals +1.5 instead, as the importance of previous home games against the Phillies comes into play. Bets on how many strikeouts each pitcher will achieve are quite typical for action, as both pitchers are significantly honoring their strikeout history.