With baseball’s regular season ending, the New York Mets encounter the Atlanta Braves in a crucial doubleheader at Truist Park. The situation couldn’t be more critical, as the playoff places are at stake. This one, particularly being a rescheduled one from September 26, features the two teams who have synched in terms of their records but traveled different roads to reach here. It is an important game for fans of MLB and the top exclusive handicappers oddsmakers who plan to evaluate the teams’ chances for the playoffs.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Game 1 9/30/24 Game Info and Odds |
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| When: | Monday, September 30, 2024, at 1:10 PM ET |
| Where: | Truist Park |
| Watch: | SNY, BSSO, MLB.TV |
| Mets odds: | +130 |
| Braves odds: | -155 |
| Total Line: | 7.5 |
New York Mets (88-72) vs. Atlanta Braves (88-72)
The New York Mets are navigating a turbulent phase, marked by recent struggles that have seen them falter significantly on the road. With a batting average of .246 and 755 runs scored, they’ve shown capability but face challenges in maintaining consistency. Their recent games reveal a pattern of highs and lows, crucial to consider for today’s strategy. The Mets’ performance in their last five outings includes a refreshing shutout against Milwaukee but losses in three of those games, which could impact their psychological edge heading into this high-stakes matchup.
| New York Mets Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 29, 2024 | MIL | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 28, 2024 | MIL | 0-6 | L |
| Sep 27, 2024 | MIL | 4-8 | L |
| Sep 24, 2024 | ATL | 1-5 | L |
| Sep 22, 2024 | PHI | 2-1 | W |
Conversely, the Atlanta Braves have been enjoying a stronger run, evidenced by their recent victories. Their batting lineup, with a similar .243 average but an edge in home runs (210), poses a significant threat. Atlanta’s last five games include crucial wins, particularly against Kansas City and Miami, but a recent loss to Kansas City may expose vulnerabilities. Their formidable record at Truist Park and dominance over the Mets in past home encounters sets the stage for what could be another defining performance.
| Atlanta Braves Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 29, 2024 | KC | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 28, 2024 | KC | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 27, 2024 | KC | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2024 | NYM | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 22, 2024 | MIA | 5-4 | W |
Tylor Megill (4-5, 3.98 ERA) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.47 ERA)
Tylor Megill is making a pitch for Tylor who has struggled this season so far in all respect with a 3.98 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Though he has performed well at times in recent games, there have been occasions when he has not fared very well against mounting pressure. The pitchers hold a good percentage of threatening the batters with strikeouts but face outbursts when it matters the most against an onslaught of a Braves batsman’s face.
For the Braves, Spencer Schwellenbach has had it much easier throughout the season with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Apart from the statistics, discipline and control played major roles in his successes as we see his walk rate lower and the strikeout to innings pitched higher. It is possible that the tone of the Atlanta will be set today by Schwellenbach for he has a good history and is also much less prone to give home run balls as compared to his opponent.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Braves -1.5 (+142), Total Odds: 7.5
The betting odds slightly favor the Braves, particularly given their strong performance at home and historical dominance over the Mets in similar setups. The point spread and moneyline reflect the perceived closeness of this matchup, with the total runs expected being set conservatively at 7.5.
New York Mets Betting Trends
The Mets have been struggling on the road and have a concerning record in recent matchups against Atlanta, especially at Truist Park. Their inability to secure consistent wins in critical games has been a recurring theme, impacting their betting trends negatively.
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
The Braves show strong betting trends, particularly at home. Their recent record of 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing at home against the Mets should give bettors confidence. Additionally, the total going UNDER in many of their recent games suggests a trend that might continue in this high-pressure game.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves 9/30/24 Betting Picks
Attending to the present state and past outcomes, it would be fair to say that Atlanta holds links the strongest in this duel. The pitching staff of Atlanta Braves as well as their ability to close games make it worthy to make more money. For those interested about the games and looking into prop bets, it would not be a surprise to see the total runs go under considering the trends and the nature of the game.
The best bet in this situation would be a victory for the Braves against the spread. Their performance at home and their recent history against the Mets are very favorable in terms of making MLB free picks.