With the end of the MLB season near, the Tampa Bay Rays (79-81) and Boston Red Sox (80-80) are battling it out for the last place in the stakes, which will increase the excitement of the forthcoming encounter at Fenway Park this Saturday. Both teams are around .500 which is normal for a season with positive and negative periods. This match will be interesting even for those who want to place a bet on it, and therefore we’ll provide some insight into the betting strategies. Here are your free MLB latest picks for this anticipated American League showdown.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox 9/28/24 Game Info and Odds |
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| When: | Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 4:10 PM ET |
| Where: | Fenway Park |
| Watch: | MLBN, NESN, ESPN, MLB.TV |
| Rays odds: | -111 Moneyline |
| Red Sox odds: | -106 Moneyline |
| Total Line: | 8.5 |
Tampa Bay Rays (79-81) vs. Boston Red Sox (80-80)
The Tampa Bay Rays, despite their recent struggles, have shown resilience against the Red Sox, particularly at Fenway Park. They’ve managed two wins against Toronto but dropped their most recent series against Detroit, reflecting their season’s ebb and flow. This inconsistency is mirrored in their batting average of .230 and a moderate slugging percentage of .368, which suggests their offense has been underwhelming.
| Tampa Bay Rays Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 26, 2024 | DET | 3-4 | Lose |
| Sep 25, 2024 | DET | 1-7 | Lose |
| Sep 24, 2024 | DET | 1-2 | Lose |
| Sep 22, 2024 | TOR | 4-3 | Win |
| Sep 21, 2024 | TOR | 3-2 | Win |
Conversely, the Boston Red Sox have shown upward momentum, winning four out of their last five games. The Red Sox boast a stronger offensive lineup than the Rays, with a batting average of .253 and a significantly higher slugging percentage of .425. Their recent victories over and Minnesota highlight their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, a key factor in their slight edge over the Rays in the standings.
| Boston Red Sox Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 25, 2024 | TOR | 1-6 | Lose |
| Sep 24, 2024 | TOR | 6-5 | Win |
| Sep 23, 2024 | TOR | 4-1 | Win |
| Sep 22, 2024 | MIN | 9-3 | Win |
| Sep 22, 2024 | MIN | 8-1 | Win |
Shane Baz (3-3, 3.07 ERA) vs. Kutter Crawford (9-15, 4.17 ERA)
The ERA of 3.07 belonging to Shane Baz of the Rays is pretty promising, complemented by a WHIP of 1.09. With the combined team’s pitching woes, this could prove to be beneficial in a hitter friendly environment such as Fenway Park. However, the win and loss column suggests that the bullpen or team’s offense does not support him much when he pitches. What he does against the Red Sox will be very important since he is targeting their explosive batting line-up.
Although his ERA is less impressive at 4.17, Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox has been getting more wins, which points to more running support from his team. Given how long the current season has taken, pitchers often have experienced what their play might be like for more innings than Baz would. Nonetheless, with this amount of experience, a right-handed pitcher like Crawford is still pretty prone to allowing 33 home runs like he has this season. The rays may be in hit-or-miss form, but they can capitalize on weaknesses.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay Rays -111, Total Odds: 8.5
The betting lines suggest that it will be a close contested match and the rays will prevail a little more. Considering their recent games on an under trend and the past history at fenway, the under on 8.5 definitely looks appealing. Both coaches this time round were not interested in seeing a high score that was unlikely to happen anyway given both team’s pitching lineups.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends
Looking at the Rays’ betting trends, it would appear the tendency is also towards the UNDER as it has come in 13 of the last 15 games against American League teams. Away from home, the team has enjoyed success against the Red Sox as they have won nine out of their last 10 encounters at Fenway park.
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
On the flip side, the Red Sox have displayed progress but are still unable to beat the Rays at home, having lost 9 out of the last 10 games contested against them. Their recent form allows us to believe that the sequence could come to a halt, especially because of Crawford’s present form. Still, one should not forget about the historical issues they have faced in such matchups.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox 9/28/24 Betting Picks
Based on the past record and current status, the Rays will be favoured to win against their opponents who have struggled late on the road this season. However one will appreciate the recent poor consistency from the rays. The Red Sox has been on a winning streak at home for a while now hence this match will not be as easy as the bookmaker’s odds suggest. Looking at the scoring averages of the two teams, and both teams being dominant in their games most times, betting on the under would be the fairest bet.
While some may wish to go into the particulars of the game, it would in fact be safer to pick the Red Sox to cover +1.5. Watch out for men performance prop bets and do not be afraid to take the under-total where both teams both take into account the run-scoring trends. These options provide extremely useful perspectives for this premium matchup analysis.