With the peak of the MLB season approaching, the level of competitiveness among teams rises, especially in games such as the one about to take place between the San Diego Padres (92-68) vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72). And the postseason picture is at stake, so there’s a good story to be written by both teams. For those evening out with some MLB free picks, this one has a nice combination of professionalism and the possibility of an upset.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 9/28/24 Game Info and Odds |
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| When: | Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 8:10 PM ET |
| Where: | Chase Field |
| Watch: | ARID, ESPN, MLB.TV |
| Padres odds: | +135 Moneyline |
| Diamondbacks odds: | -160 Moneyline |
| Total Line: | 9.5 |
San Diego Padres (92-68) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72)
The San Diego Padres have shown remarkable resilience this season, boasting a strong lineup that has consistently delivered when it counts. Their recent form, with 10 wins out of the last 13 games, underlines their readiness for the postseason. Analyzing their last five outings reveals a team that is versatile and adaptive, overcoming rivals like the LA Dodgers and the Chicago White Sox with strategic plays and robust pitching.
| San Diego Padres Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 27, 2024 | ARI | 5-3 | Win |
| Sep 26, 2024 | LA | 2-7 | Lose |
| Sep 25, 2024 | LA | 3-4 | Lose |
| Sep 24, 2024 | LA | 4-2 | Win |
| Sep 22, 2024 | CHW | 4-2 | Win |
On the other side, the Arizona Diamondbacks have faced a turbulent stretch with a recent 1-4 slip in their last five games, showing vulnerability, especially in their pitching department. Despite a commendable offensive performance throughout the season, their inconsistency at home has been a point of concern. The Diamondbacks’ recent games, particularly the heavy loss against the Giants and a narrow defeat to the Brewers, highlight the challenges they face in maintaining form against high-caliber opponents.
| Arizona Diamondbacks Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 27, 2024 | SD | 3-5 | Lose |
| Sep 25, 2024 | SF | 8-2 | Win |
| Sep 24, 2024 | SF | 0-11 | Lose |
| Sep 23, 2024 | SF | 3-6 | Lose |
| Sep 22, 2024 | MIL | 9-10 | Lose |
Martin Perez (3-0, 2.61 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (3-4, 5.56 ERA)
This season, Martin Perez has continued to be dependable for San Diego. He’s 3-0 with an amazing ERA of 2.61. He has been very important for San Diego in terms of pitching, as he has been able to control the runs scored by the opponents and stay focused and calm in the crucial innings. He also boasts a WHIP of 1.1 while striking out many batters, which means that Perez’s pitching can single-handedly run the game and let the team enjoy victory.
In contrast, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Diamondbacks has been around many losses this season, as evidenced by a record of 3-4 with a higher 5.56 ERA. Accordingly, his WHIP is too high, meaning he struggled to keep the hits low, amounting to 1.52, which could work against him since the Padres have a weapon up their sleeves to exploit that weakness. How Rodriguez performs in this particular game will be very important if Arizona is to make any shock returns.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+125), Total Odds: 9.5
In the present betting market, the spread suggests that the Diamondbacks are slight favorites and this is interesting because they have been in a bad shape lately. The total over 9.5 runs should appeal to those confident that it will be a battle of bats and not batters, more so because of the two teams’ attacking capabilities and the pitchers’ luck.
San Diego Padres Betting Trends
The Padres are statistically going under in most of the games they have played of late, which factor in their efficient pitching and game plan. They have amassed 10-3 SU in their last 13 games which conjures the aspect of ‘winners mentality’ apart from the fact that their traveling game exhibit some slight weakness.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends
Betting trends of the team from Arizona show equal amounts of over and under betting suggesting some indecisiveness on how their games will be structured or defense aspects. This may be a sign that bettors considering betting on Diamondbacks would need to think twice.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 9/28/24 Betting Picks
Considering everything, the Padres look like the more viable option in this case, more so with Perez on the mound. A better overall record and better tactics in their last games give them an upper hand. As for prop bets, looking into Perez for some k’s might be worthwhile.
A reasonable consideration for the smart money is for the Padres to win within the spread and probably focus on the under because of the recent trend and Perez’s game management. For fans and people looking for premium best picks of the day, the Padres will win in a very close game where proper use of pitchers will be the game plan.