Free NFL Picks For Today, Sunday 9/29/2024
Denver Broncos vs. NY Jets NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Denver Broncos vs. NY Jets 1PM ET—The Broncos starters are healthy on both sides. The Jets right tackle on offense is out. On defense a linebacker is doubtful. Denver improved to 1-2 following their 26-7 road win at Tampa Bay. The Broncos gained 352 yards with 136 rushing for 4.9 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 223 yards to the Bucs with 132 passing on 33 attempts. Bo Nix hit 25 of 36 for 216 yards. NY improved to 2-1 with their 24-3 home win to New England. The Jets put up 400 yards with 133 rushing for 4 yards a carry. On defense they held the Patriots to 139 yards with 61 passing on 26 attempts. Aaron Rodgers went 27 of 35 for 281 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Broncos have a slight injury advantage based on Dr Chao’s injury scores. The lowest score is for the Jets defense. Denver is rushing for 4.2 yards a carry. They have limited big plays in the passing game by allowing 5.1 yards per pass attempt. The concern here is for the Jets rush defense that is giving up 4.8 yards a carry. Denver is 5-3 to the spread as a road underdog of +3.5 to +9.5. The Jets are 1-6 to the spread at home against losing teams. Play Denver +8.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Bengals at Panthers 1PM ET—Cincinnati has healthy starters on offense. On defense their left tackle is out with their right tackle doubtful. Carolina left guard on offense is out with their right guard and receiver Johnson questionable. On defense and end is questionable with nose tackle out.
Cincinnati fell to 0-3 following their 38-33 home defeat on Monday night to Washington. The Bengals produced 436 yards with 124 rushing for 6.2 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 356 yards to the Commanders with 248 passing on 23 attempts. Joe Burrow hit 29 of 38 for 324 yards with three touchdowns. Carolina is 1-2 with their 36-22 road win at Las Vegas. The Panthers 437 yards with 131 rushing for 4.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 331 yards to the Raiders with 276 passing on 40 attempts. Andy Dalton completed 26 of 37 for 319 yards and three touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Bengals have a significant injury advantage based on Dr Chao’s injury scores. The lowest score is on the Carolina defense which is quite low at 72.9. There is now tape on Andy Dalton and how he will operate under the Panthers system. Cincinnati is getting efficient quarterback play with 70.9% completions and 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Carolina defense is performing poorly by allowing 4.7 yards per carry with 71.4% completions with 7.2 yards per pass attempt. More time now with Burrow and his receivers in Game 4. Play Cincinnati -4.5.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Eagles at Buccaneers 1PM ET—Philadelphia receiver Smith is out. Receiver Brown and their right tackle is questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. Tampa Bay receiver McMillan is doubtful with their right tackle questionable. On defense an end and free safety are out. Their nose tackle is questionable. Philadelphia improved to 2-1 following their 15-12 road win at New Orleans. The Eagles put up 440 yards with 172 rushing for 6.9 yards a carry. On defense they held the Saints to 219 yards with 130 passing on 25 attempts. Jalen Hurts completed 29 of 38 for 311 yards and a pick. Tampa Bay fell to 2-1 with their 26-7 home defeat to Denver. The Buccaneers posted 223 yards with 91 rushing for 5.7 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 352 yards to the Broncos with 136 rushing for 4.9 yards a carry. Baker Mayfield completed 25 of 33 for 163 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
The Dr Chao injury scores about even with these teams. The Bucs injury scores are low on defense with the Eagles low on offense. The Tampa Bay offense is running for only four yards a carry and passing for only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Bucs are struggling in run defense by allowing 4.9 yards a carry. Eagles offense is rushing for 5 yards a carry and getting efficient quarterback play with 70.6% completions with 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Tampa Bay inefficient offensive performance the concern here. The Eagles are 5-1 to the spread in their September Road games. Tampa Bay is 1-8 to the spread after a loss. Play Philadelphia -1.
LA Rams vs. Chicago Bears NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Rams at Bears 1PM ET—Kupp and Nacua are out for LA on offense. Their defensive starters are healthy. Chicago receiver Allen is questionable. On defense a tackle and free safety are questionable. LA improved to 1-2 with their 27-24 home win to San Francisco. The Rams offense gained 296 yards with 98 rushing for 3.8 yards a carry. On defense LA allowed 425 yards to the 49ers with 288 passing on 30 attempts. Sam Bradford hit 16 of 25 for 221 yards with a touchdown. Chicago drops to 1-2 following their 21-16 road defeat at Indianapolis. The Bears put up 395 yards with 63 rushing for 2.3 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 306 yards to the Colts with 150 rushing for 4.5 yards a carry. Caleb Williams completed 33 of 52 for 363 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
The Pick:
Chicago has a significant injury advantage in the Dr Chao injury scores here by a wide margin of 15 points. The Rams offense has a very low score. The Rams running game generates only 3.4 yards a carry. They are getting accurate passing and average 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Rams defensive numbers are bad as they are giving up 5.1 yards per carry with 72% completions for 9.4 yards per pass attempt. The Bears offense has been inept by averaging just 3 yards a carry with inaccurate play at quarterback and only 4.5 yards per pass attempt. The Bears are defending the pass very well by holding teams to 59.1% completions and 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Play LA and Chicago under 40.5.
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Saints at Falcons 1PM ET—New Orleans running back Kamara, receivers Olave and Wilson are questionable. Their right guard is out. On defense a linebacker is out. Atlanta has their fullback and right tackle out. Their defensive starters are healthy. New Orleans drops to 2-1 following their 15-12 home defeat to Philadelphia. The Saints put up 219 yards with 89 rushing for 3.1 yards a carry. Defensively the allowed 460 yards to the Eagles with 288 passing on 38 attempts. Derek Carr hit 14 of 25 for 142 yards with a touchdown and interception. Atlanta fell to 1-2 with their 22-17 home defeat to Kansas City. The Falcons offense gained 311 yards with 82 rushing for 3.3 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 345 yards to the Chiefs with 217 passing on 39 attempts. Kirk Cousins went 20 of 29 for 230 yards with a touchdown and interceptions.
The Pick:
Slight injury advantage for Atlanta based on the SIC scores. Atlanta is allowing nearly 72% completion rate and 150 rushing yards per game. New Orleans is running for 153 yards per game with 4.4 yards per carry. They are getting accurate quarterback play and averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Defensively the Saints are holding opposing quarterbacks to 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Saints are 7-4 as a road underdog. Atlanta is 4-8 as a home favorite. Play New Orleans +3.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Jaguars at Texans—Jacksonville receiver Davis is questionable with tight end Engram out. On defense their middle linebacker and nickel back are questionable. Houston receiver Dell is out with running back Mixon questionable. On defense a safety is out with tackle questionable. Jacksonville fell to 0-3 after their 47-10 road defeat to Buffalo. The Jaguars offense posted 239 yards with 92 rushing for 5.4 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 388 yards to the Bills with 266 passing on 31 attempts. Trevor Lawrence went 21 of 38 for 178 yards with a touchdown and interception. Houston drops to 2-1 after their 34-7 road defeat to Minnesota. The Texans put up 296 yards with 38 rushing for 2.7 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 276 yards to the Vikings with 156 passing on 28 attempts. CJ Stroud hit 20 of 31 for 215 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
The Pick:
Each team have about equal team injury scores based on Dr. Chao ratings. Jaguars have the offensive advantage with the Texans the advantage on defense. Jacksonville is running for 5.1 yards a carry. They do defend the run effectively by allowing 3.8 yards a carry. Houston passing game is generating only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Jags are a desperate 0-3 team. They are 10-6 on the road against the AFC. Houston is 2-4 to the spread at home against the division. Play Jacksonville +6.5.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Vikings at Packers 1PM ET—Minnesota starters are healthy on offense. On defense a linebacker is out. Green Bay quarterback Love is questionable. On defense a corner is questionable. Minnesota improves to 3-0 with their 34-7 home win to Houston Texans. The Vikings produced 274 yards with 118 rushing for 4.2 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 296 yards to the Texans with 38 rushing on 14 carries. Sam Darnold completed 17 of 28 for 181 yards and four touchdowns. Green Bay sits at 2-1 following their 30-14 road win at Tennessee. The Packers gained 378 yards with 188 rushing for 5.1 yards a carry. On defense they held the Titans to 237 yards with 33 rushing on 11 carries. Malik Willis hit 13 of 19 for 202 yards with a touchdown. He rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
Green Bay has a slight injury advantage as Love is expected to be at full healthy based on the SIC ratings. Minnesota offense generating 4.8 yards a carry and getting accurate play at quarterback with 7.9 yards per pass attempt. On defense they hold opponents to 3.6 yards a carry and only 5.9 yards per pass attempt. The Packers run defense is giving up 4.7 yards a carry. The Vikings are 9-4 to the spread on the road. Green Bay is 0-4 to the spread at home facing a team that averages 7 yards per pass attempt or greater. Play Minnesota +3.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Steelers at Colts 1PM ET—Pittsburgh left guard is out. On defense a linebacker is out. Indianapolis has a center and right tackle questionable. On defense their left end is out with right end questionable. Pittsburgh improved to 3-0 after their 20-10 home win to LA Chargers. The Steelers put up 336 yards with 114 rushing for 3.7 yards a carry. Defensively they held the Chargers to 166 yards with 105 passing on 20 attempts. Justin Fields connected on 25 of 32 for 245 yards with a touchdown and interception. Indianapolis sits at 1-1 with their 21-16 home win to Chicago. The Colts offense posted 306 yards with 150 rushing for 4.5 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 395 yards to the Bears offense with 63 rushing yards on 28 carries. Anthony Richardson hit 10 of 20 for 167 yards with two interceptions.
The Pick:
Pittsburgh has a slight injury advantage based on Dr. Chao’s ratings. Indy defensive injury score is very low at 73.3. But the Steelers offensive injury scores are low at 79.5. Indy is struggling with pass accuracy with 49.3% completions. On defense they are allowing 70.4% completion rate. The strength of the Steelers has been their defense where they allow 3.5 yards a carry and only 5.9 yards per pass attempt. The run game generates only 3.6 yards per carry and only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Play Pittsburgh and Indianapolis under 40.
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Patriots at 49ers 4PM ET—New England left tackle is out with a left guard questionable. On defense a linebacker and corner are questionable. San Francisco running back McCaffrey is out. Receiver Samuel is questionable and left tackle Williams questionable. On defense a tackle and safety are questionable. New England fell to 1-2 following their 24-3 road defeat to NY Jets. The Patriots posted 139 yards with 78 rushing for 5.2 yards a carry. On defense they gave up 400 yards to the Jets with 267 passing on 35 attempts. Jacoby Brissett hit 12 of 18 for 98 yards. San Francisco drops to 1-2 with their 27-24 road defeat to LA Rams. The 49ers gained 425 yards with 137 rushing for four yards a carry. Defensively they held LA to 296 yards with 189 passing on 26 attempts. Brock Purdy went 22 of 30 for 292 yards and three touchdowns.
The Pick:
San Francisco has a slight injury advantage but both teams have very low injury scores on the Dr Chao ratings. New England is running at a high rate as they average 4.8 yards a carry. They are getting inaccurate and inefficient quarterback play as they average 4 yards per pass attempt. On defense the Patriots hold opponents to 3.7 yards a carry and only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. San Francisco is rushing for 4.3 yards a carry and getting efficient play at quarterback. The Patriots offense is the weak unit here. They are 7-3 to the under on the road when lined at a total of 35.5 to 42 points. The Patriots will be challenged to score here. Play New England and San Francisco under 40.5.
Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Commanders at Cardinals 4PM ET—Washington is healthy on offense. On defense and end is out. Arizona tight end is out with their right tackle questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. Washington improved to 2-1 following their 38-33 road win at Cincinnati. The Commanders posted 356 yards with 108 rushing for 3.4 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 426 yards to the Bengals with 312 passing on 38 attempts. Jayden Daniels completed 21 of 33 for 254 yards with two touchdowns. Arizona drops to 1-2 with their 20-13 home defeat to Detroit. The Cardinals offense posted 277 yards with 77 rushing for 4.3 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 373 yards to the Lions with 187 rushing for 4.3 yards a carry. Kyler Murray hit 21 of 34 for 207 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
Washington has a slight injury edge based on the Dr Chao injury scores. They have a high score. Washington is getting good offensive production with 4.8 yards per run with 80.3% completion rate with 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Defense is an issue. Arizona producing good offense with 5.3 yards per run and 69% completions for 8.3 yards a carry. Pass defense a major concern. Washington is 9-6 as a road underdog. Play Washington +3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Chiefs at Chargers—Kansas City has healthy starters on offense. On defense an end is out. Charger quarterback Herbert is questionable. Their left tackle is out. On defense a linebacker is out. A safety is suspended with a corner and nickel back questionable. KC improved to 3-0 following their 22-17 road win at Atlanta. The Chiefs offense gained 345 yards with 128 rushing for 3.9 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 311 yards to the Falcons with 229 passing on 29 attempts. Patrick Mahomes hit 26 of 39 for 217 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. LA fell to 2-1 with their 20-10 road defeat at Pittsburgh. The Chargers put up 166 yards with 61 rushing for 3 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 336 yards to the Steelers with 232 passing on 32 attempts. Justin Herbert completed 12 of 18 passes for 125 yards with a touchdown.
The Pick:
Kansas City has a significant injury advantage based on Dr. Chao’s ratings. LA pass offense a very low injury score of 58.3. Herbert is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Heinicke may start. The Chargers offensive line is banged up. The Chargers run heavily and average 5 yards a carry. The passing game averages only 5.7 yards per attempt. LA defends holding opponents to 3.9 yards a carry and only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. KC defense gets upgraded with the Chargers injuries. The Chiefs are 6-3 to the under as a road favorite of 7 points or greater. LA is 6-1 to the under at home against the division. Play KC and LA under 40.
Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Browns at Raiders—Cleveland tight end and both offensive tackles are out. On defense a linebacker is out. Las Vegas receiver Adams is out with their left tackle doubtful. On defense and end is doubtful with linebacker out. Cleveland drops to 1-2 following their 21-15 home defeat to NY Giants. The Browns offense gained 217 yards with 69 rushing for 3.8 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 340 yards to the Giants with 228 passing on 35 attempts. Deshaun Watson hit 21 of 37 for 196 yards and two touchdowns. Las Vegas fell to 1-2 after their 36-22 home defeat to Carolina. The Raiders put up 331 yards with 55 rushing for 3.4 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 437 yards to the Panthers with 306 passing on 37 attempts. Gardner Minshew completed 18 of 28 for 214 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
Las Vegas has a significant injury advantage based on Dr. Chao injury ratings. The Browns offense has a low injury score of 68.5. Browns running back Chub is still out as well. Cleveland passing game has been very poor with inaccurate play and only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. The team runs for only 4.3 yards a carry. On defense they allow 4.4 yards a carry. Las Vegas is getting accurate passing with 73.9% completions for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland is 1-4 to the spread on the road as a favorite up to 7 points. The Raiders are 9-1 to the spread at home when lined between +3 and -3. Play Las Vegas +2.5.
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Pick Prediction 9/29/2024
Bills at Ravens—Buffalo has healthy starters on offense. On defense a linebacker and nickel back are out. Baltimore left guard is doubtful with their center questionable. On defense their nose tackle is doubtful with nickel back out. Buffalo improved to 3-0 following their 47-10 home win to Jacksonville. The Bills put up 388 yards with 122 rushing for 4.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 139 yards to the Jaguars with 147 passing on 46 attempts. Josh Allen hit 23 of 30 for 264 yards and four touchdowns. Baltimore is 1-2 with their 28-25 road win at Dallas. The Ravens offense gained 456 yards with 274 rushing for 6.1 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 412 yards to the Cowboys with 361 passing on 51 attempts. Lamar Jackson completed 12 of 15 for 182 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
Baltimore has a significant injury edge in this game based on Dr. Chao ratings. The Bills defensive score is low at 75.9. Buffalo offense is getting elite production in the passing game. They complete 75.3% completion rate with 8.6 yards per pass attempt. The defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Baltimore has strong offensive numbers with 5.9 yards per carry on the ground and 65.6% completions for 7.6 yards per attempt. Pass defense is a weakness for the Ravens by allowing 66.7% completion rate with 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Buffalo is 4-1 to the over on the road against a losing team. Play Buffalo and Baltimore over 46.5.