As we enter Week 5 of the NCAAF season, the Florida State Seminoles (1-3) face the SMU Mustangs (3-1) in a pivotal matchup that could shape the trajectory of their respective seasons. This clash, set to take place at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday, September 28, 2024, at 8:00 PM ET, will be broadcast on the ACC Network. With both teams eager to build on their prior performances, this encounter presents numerous opportunities for pro college football free picks and strategic betting considerations.
Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs 09/28/24 Game Info |
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| When: | Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 3:30 PM ET |
| Where: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium |
| TV: | ACC Network |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
Florida State Seminoles (1-3) vs. SMU Mustangs (3-1)
Florida State enters the game wanting to bounce back from their recent loss as they have not had a good start to the season, with their rushing and receiving units showing potential on several occasions. Lawrance Toafili managed to tow 147 rushing yards from the 30 attempts as their running back, scoring two touchdowns with an average of 4.9 yards carry. Where he conflicts Chub boats into the balanced offense of Florida State, a series of backfield specialists are expected today in Louisiana Tech vs FIU. On the contrary, Ja’Khi Douglas has also attempted to help by receiving the ball and registered 224 yards on 13 catches at an average of 17.2 yards per catch. His capacity to make plays on first receptions is important for the Seminoles as they will visit the Mustangs aiming for their secondary.
On the other hand, the SMU Mustangs are on a roll with a 3-1 record thanks to a versatile offense. Brashard Smith has been effective in the backfield for the Mustangs, contributing 380 yards on the ground on 53 carries, good for six touchdowns and 7.2 yards per carry. His powerful running style is comparable to how rushing can change the game’s dynamics during the much anticipated Kentucky vs Mississippi duel today. In addition, wide receiver RJ Maryland chipped into the passing game with 191 yards on 13 receptions with an average of 14.7 yards. Maryland contributes efficiently to prolonging the plays so that the passing game of SMU is affected even more.
DJ Uiagalelei QB vs. Kevin Jennings QB
This season has been a struggle for DJ Uiagalelei, the quarterback for Florida State, as he has only registered 72 completions on 126 attempts, resulting in 843 yards with only two touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion percentage and passer rating of 57.1% and 113.8 consecutively indicate that he is still there. One such area will be his decision-making, which will help reduce turnovers and set not just aspirations of improving turnover rates in the red zone but also accomplish such goals, making it easier for Florida State to score.
On the contrary, the case of Kevin Jennings of SMU has been a barrage of reliability, even more so reliability considering how he has been utilized as a passer. He completed 43 of his 70 attempts and gained 479 passing yards with 3 individual touchdowns and a single interception. This means Jennings has a 61.4 percent completing ratio with a 130.2 passer rating. His poise in the pocket with the ball and the execution of the offense methodically has helped SMU a lot early in the season and will be an important component in the SMU offense going forward.
The battle between the quarterbacks stands out as an important aspect of the match, where Uiagalelei has to use his experience to construct a successful strategic offense, while Jennings has to do still all that is gracious in the leadership of SMU to keep the winning streak intact. This game, in its outcome, will be highly dependent on the individual bright strategies and actions of each of the players.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: SMU Mustangs -6, Total Odds: 47.5
SMU enters the game as 6-point favorites, underscoring confidence in their form and home-field advantage. With a moneyline of -225, they are viewed as having the upper hand, while Florida State, at +185, is seen as the underdog. The over/under is set at 47.5, reflecting moderate expectations for scoring. Considering SMU’s offensive strengths and Florida State’s quest to evolve offensively, betting enthusiasts might find value in the over, anticipating a more open and competitive contest.
Florida State Betting Trends
Florida State’s recent betting trends show they are 1-4 ATS in the recent stretch, struggling to meet expectations consistently. However, they have shown resilience with a 16-4 SU record across their last 20 games, and maintaining a perfect 7-0 SU in recent road games is a significant confidence booster. Despite these strengths, the totals have often gone under, particularly noted in matchups within the Atlantic Coast Conference and September contests, suggesting a need for offensive breakthroughs.
SMU Betting Trends
In contrast, SMU has enjoyed a fruitful period, going 12-2 SU in their last 14 and 10-1 SU at home, underscoring their home fortress status. They have managed to exceed their point targets frequently, particularly highlighted by a 4-1 ATS record in recent Saturday games, showcasing their ability to deliver when expected. The blend of consistent execution, both offensively and defensively, positions them as strong contenders.
Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs 09/28/24 Betting Picks
In assessing this matchup, SMU’s balanced attack and Jennings’ consistent QB play favor their ability to control game flow and tempo, suggesting they possess the attributes to cover the spread against a slightly erratic Florida State performance base. The Seminoles must unlock Toafili’s potential and Douglas’s aerial contributions while tightening defensive setups to innovate effectively against SMU.
Bettors focused on extracting value might lean towards SMU covering the spread with their dominant form and factors. Exploring point totals can also be beneficial, given both teams’ offensive capabilities, leading to intriguing opportunities for those seeking comprehensive top-tier analysis and tips in this standout weekend matchup.