As the Major League Baseball season comes to an end, the last match of the season between the Miami Marlins (58-100), who have had a bitter experience and Minnesota Twins (82-76), who are hoping to make a playoff appearance on September 26, 2024 at Target Field promises to be the ultimate test of extremes economically. With that being said, this preview presents a premium expert’s tips as to what may happen when these teams come on board.
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins 9/26/24 Game Info and Odds |
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| When: | Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 7:40 PM ET |
| Where: | Target Field |
| Watch: | BSFL, BSNO, MLB.TV |
| Marlins odds: | +205 |
| Twins odds: | -250 |
| Total Line: | 8.5 |
Miami Marlins (58-100) vs. Minnesota Twins (82-76)
The Miami Marlins, standing at 58 wins and 100 losses, have been glimmers of light even amidst the shrouding adversities. However, the same cannot be said of their batting, as they had a rather unimpressive .242 batting average and a .298 OBP. Of late, they played 4 games against the Washington Nationals, in which they won one game and lost three but luckily managed to defeat the Minnesota Twins 4-1. This performance showcases their burning spirit in the face of all the odds stacked against them.
| Miami Marlins Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 25, 2024 | MIN | 3-8 | L |
| Sep 24, 2024 | MIN | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 22, 2024 | ATL | 4-5 | L |
| Sep 21, 2024 | ATL | 2-6 | L |
| Sep 20, 2024 | ATL | 4-3 | W |
The Minnesota Twins, with a better overall record, have recently faced setbacks, going 2-5 in their last seven games. They boast a .247 batting average and 179 home runs, demonstrating strong slugging capabilities. Their recent games include mixed results against the LA Angels, with two wins (10-5, 6-4) and a loss (6-2), followed by a decisive 8-3 victory over the Marlins and tough losses to both Miami and Boston.
| Minnesota Twins Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 25, 2024 | MIA | 8-3 | W |
| Sep 24, 2024 | MIA | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 22, 2024 | BOS | 3-9 | L |
| Sep 22, 2024 | BOS | 1-8 | L |
| Sep 20, 2024 | BOS | 4-2 | W |
Valente Bellozo (3-4, 3.82 ERA) vs. David Festa (2-6, 4.8 ERA)
Valente Bellozo of the Marlins brings a 3.82 ERA into this contest, showing a capacity to limit opponent scoring despite a less flattering 3-4 win-loss record. His 1.3 WHIP and ability to manage hits and walks over 63.2 innings pitched suggest he could pose some difficulties for the Twins’ hitters, especially if he maintains control and minimizes home runs, a noted challenge with 14 allowed this season.
David Festa, the starting pitcher for the Twins, carries a higher ERA of 4.8 and a 2-6 record that points to struggles this season. However, his strikeout rate is impressive, with 72 Ks over 60 innings, indicating potential to disrupt the Marlins’ hitters. His challenge will be managing the game deeper into innings and reducing the impact of his 1.28 WHIP, which has sometimes set the stage for scoring against him.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-110), Total Odds: 8.5
Current betting odds favor the Twins heavily, with a moneyline of -250 and a spread of -1.5. The total set at 8.5, with the over being favored slightly, suggests an expectation of a relatively high-scoring game, likely influenced by both teams’ recent overs in their respective series.
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Marlins are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games, indicating a trend that might concern bettors leaning towards a Miami upset. Their performance on the road also suggests a propensity for lower-scoring games, with the total going UNDER in 4 of their last 5 away games. However, their record against the Twins in recent matchups stands at 4-2 SU, presenting a glimmer of hope for an against-the-odds performance.
Minnesota Twins Betting Trends
The Twins have shown volatility, reflected in their 2-7 SU record in their last 9 games against National League teams, highlighting potential vulnerabilities. The total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 7 home games, aligning with their offensive capabilities and perhaps defensive shortcomings.
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins 9/26/24 Betting Picks
Based on the stats and what the teams have shown lately, I would still favor my recommendation that the Twins will cover the spread. It is due to their stronger offense and a long batting lineup that polishes the chances of the Marlins, especially with the full pitching rule with Miami. Although the intriguing pattern in over and under results by both teams makes a case that the total might probably be swinging more to the UNDER than anything else, with the importance of this particular late-season match, it is possible the pitchers put in extra effort.
In the case of prop bets, it might be wise to look for some prop bets along the lines of David Festa strikeouts props since it’s been a season full of K’s for him. The safest option would be to take the Twins to win the game, however, in order to search for value, it would be smart to go for the under on total points. Could be helpful extra factors for your betting tactics and free baseball tips.