Free College Football Picks Week 5 Part 3-9/28/2024
Charlotte vs. Rice College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Charlotte at Rice 7PM ET—Charlotte fell to 1-3 following their 52-14 road defeat at Indiana. The 49ers put up 256 yards with 137 rushing for 4.1 yards per run. On defense they allowed 510 yards to the Hoosiers with 288 passing on 27 attempts. Their starting quarterback Max Brown is questionable. Trexler Ivey hit 14 of 23 for 119 yards with a touchdown. Rice fell to 1-3 with their 37-14 road defeat at Army. The Owls put up 297 yards with 41 rushing for 3.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 408 yards to the Black Knights with 288 rushing for 5.1 yards a carry.
The Pick:
Quarterback issues for the Owls with the injury to Max Brown. The Owls running game is generating 5.7 yards a carry. They have defended well by holding opponents to 4.2 yards a carry with 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Charlotte is having issues on both sides of the football. They run for only 2.9 yards per carry. On defense they allow 267 yards passing with 9.7 yards per pass attempt. Opponents rush for 4.9 yards a carry on the 49ers. Rice is 10-4 to the spread at home. Play Rice -6.5.
UL Monroe vs. Troy College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
UL Monroe at Troy 7PM ET—UL Monroe fell to 2-1 following their 51-3 road defeat at Texas. The Warhawks gained 111 yards with 57 rushing for 2.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 497 yards to the Longhorns with 258 passing on 29 attempts. General Booty hit 8 of 19 for 42 yards and an interception. Troy improved to 1-3 after their 34-12 home win to FCS Floria A&M. Two weeks ago, it was a 38-21 home defeat to Iowa. The Trojans put up 253 yards with 24 rushing on 21 attempts. Goose Crowder missed the game due to a shoulder injury. He returned in the win against Florida A&M. On the year he completes 69.4% of his passes with five touchdowns and 8.6 yards per pass attempt.
The Pick:
Crowder has been an efficient passer for the Trojans. Troy has played a tough schedule and have rushed for 4.3 yards a carry. UL Monroe has struggled in pass defense by allowing 67.8% completions with 7.2 yards per pass attempt. They are getting inaccurate and inefficient quarterback play. UL Monroe is 5-9 to the spread on the road. Troy is 7-3 to the spread in home conference games. Play Troy -7.
Tulsa vs. North Texas College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Tulsa at North Texas 7PM ET—Tulsa improved to 2-2 following their 23-20 road overtime win at Louisiana Tech. The Golden Hurricane gained 333 yards with 105 rushing for 3.5 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 284 yards to the Bulldogs with 87 rushing for 2.2 yards a carry. Kirk Francis hit 24 of 36 for 228 yards and a touchdown. North Texas is 3-1 after their 44-17 home win to Wyoming. The Mean Green produced 534 yards with 216 rushing for 6.7 yards a carry. On defense they held the Cowboys to 244 yards with 69 rushing for 2.2 yards per run. Chandler Morris hit 28 of 41 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Tulsa has efficient offense with 5.2 yards per run and 62% completion rate with 7.3 yards per pass attempt. The Golden Hurricane limits their opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. It is an efficient offense for the Mean Green. They are allowing 285 yards passing per game with 7.6 yards per pass attempt. The Golden Hurricane is 8-2 to the spread as a road underdog. Play Tulsa +6.5.
Middle Tennessee St vs. Memphis College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Middle Tennessee St at Memphis 7:30PM ET—Middle Tennessee St fell to 1-3 following their 45-17 home defeat to Duke. The Blue Raiders produced 295 yards with 158 rushing for 4.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 340 yards to the Blue Devils with 216 passing on 21 attempts. Nicholas Vattiato hit 21 of 33 for 127 yards with a touchdown and interception. Memphis drops to 3-1 with their 56-44 road defeat at Navy. The Tigers put up 659 yards with 274 rushing for 7.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 566 yards to the Midshipmen with 361 rushing for 9.3 yards per carry. Seth Henigan completed 32 of 56 for 371 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
Middle Tennessee St has a productive passing game with 64% completion rate with 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Blue Raiders are passing for 261 yards a game. With Memphis they are an explosive offense but leaky defensively through the years. The Tigers playoff hopes took a massive blow last week. They are 5-8 to the spread at home. Play Middle Tennessee St +26.
Illinois vs. Penn St College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Illinois at Penn St 7:30PM ET—Illinois improved to 4-0 following their 31-24 road overtime win at Nebraska. The Fighting Illini gained 381 yards with 166 rushing for 4.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 345 yards to the Cornhuskers with 48 rushing for under two yards per rush. Luke Altmyer hit 21 of 27 passes for 215 yards and four touchdowns. Penn St is 3-0 with their 56-0 home win to Kent. The Nittany Lions put up 718 yards with 309 rushing for 6.2 yards a carry. On defense they limited the Golden Flashes to 66 yards with 18 passing on 13 attempts. Drew Allar completed 17 of 21 for 309 yards and three touchdowns.
The Pick:
Illinois has been tested this season with wins against Kansas and Nebraska. They are getting effective passing with 70% completions and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. On defense they hold opponents to 3.5 yards a carry and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Penn St won at West Virginia got past two MAC teams. They gave up 27 points at home to Bowling Green in a seven-point win. Play Illinois +18.
Georgia vs. Alabama College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Georgia at Alabama 7:30PM ET—Georgia improved to 3-0 following their 13-12 road win at Kentucky. The Bulldogs gained 262 yards with 102 rushing for 3.4 yards a carry. On defense they held the Wildcats to 284 yards with 114 passing on 28 attempts. Carson Beck hit 15 of 24 for 160 yards. Alabama is 3-0 with their 42-10 road win at Wisconsin. The Crimson Tide put up 405 yards with 181 rushing for 5.3 yards a carry. On defense they held the Badgers 290 yards with 141 passing on 31 attempts. Jalen Milroe completed 12 of 17 for 196 yards with three touchdowns.
The Pick:
Alabama is rushing for 5.8 yards per attempt. They are getting the better quarterback play with 67.2% completion rate with 10.3 yards per pass attempt. The Crimson Tide holds opponents to 52.3% completions for 3.2 yards per pass attempt. Georgia had only a one-point win at Kentucky as a -21.5 favorite. Play Alabama +2.
Ohio St vs. Michigan St College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Ohio St at Michigan St 7:30PM ET—Ohio St is 3-0 after their 49-14 home win to Marshall. The Buckeyes posted 569 yards with 280 rushing for 9 yards a carry. On defense they held the Thundering Herd to 264 yards with 125 rushing for 2.9 yards a carry. Will Howard completed 16 of 20 for 275 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Michigan St fell to 3-1 following their 23-19 road defeat at Boston College. The Spartans put up 368 yards with 127 rushing for 3.8 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 292 yards to BC with 140 passing on 16 attempts. Adam Chiles hit 17 of 35 for 241 yards and three interceptions.
The Pick:
Michigan St is moving the football for 4.7 yards per run and throwing for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. They defend by limiting the opposition to 2.6 yards a carry and 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Ohio St has played a weak schedule piling up positive stats. This will be their first road game of the season. Play Michigan St +24.
South Alabama vs. LSU College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
South Alabama at LSU 7:45PM ET—South Alabama improved to 2-2 following their 48-14 road win at Appalachian St. The Jaguars posted 474 yards with 320 rushing for 7.4 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 385 yards to the Mountaineers with 266 passing on 40 attempts. Gio Lopez hit 16 of 24 for 154 yards and two touchdowns. LSO moves to 3-1 with their 34-17 home win to UCLA. The Tigers gained 454 yards with 102 rushing for 3.6 yards a carry. On defense they held the Bruins to 295 yards with 281 passing on 36 attempts. Garrett Nussmeier completed 32 of 44 for 352 yards with three touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Jaguars offense has performed well with 6.9 yards per run and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Defensively they limit opponents to 3.8 yards a carry. LSU defense is the concern as they are allowing 66.1% completions with 8.3 yards per pass attempt. They have not covered a spread. Including a home game against FCS Nichols St where they allowed 21 points. They were only up seven after three quarters at home to a down UCLA team. Play South Alabama +22.
Florida St vs. SMU College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Florida St at SMU 8PM ET—Florida St is 1-3 following their 14-9 home win to California. The Seminoles put up 284 yards with 107 rushing for 2.6 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 410 yards to the Golden Bears with 303 passing on 37 attempts. DJ Uiagalelei completed 16 of 27 for 177 yards with a touchdown and interception. SMU fell to 3-1 after their 66-42 home win to TCU. The Mustangs put up 415 yards with 238 rushing for 5.7 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 480 yards to the Horned Frogs with 415 passing on 46 attempts. Kevin Jennings hit 14 of 19 for 137 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Florida St holds teams to 4 yards per run and 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Their offense has struggled with 2.3 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Florida St has played a tough schedule. The Mustangs were held to 15 points at home in a loss to BYU. Could see the Seminoles defense keep them in the game here. Play Florida St +6.5.
Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Cincinnati at Texas Tech 8PM ET—Cincinnati improved to 3-1 with their 34-0 home win to Houston. The Bearcats put up 362 yards with 149 rushing for 3.9 yards a carry. On defense they limited the Cougars with 233 yards with 92 passing on 21 attempts. Brendan Sorsby completed 12 of 15 for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Texas Tech improved to 3-1 with their 30-22 home victory to Arizona St. The Red Raiders put up 334 yards with 133 rushing for 3.4 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 376 yards to the Sun Devils with 282 passing on 38 attempts. Behren Morton hit 24 of 44 for 201 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Bearcats are putting up good offensive numbers. They do struggle defensively by allowing 4.5 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The Red Raiders are rushing for 5 yards a carry and throwing for 319 yards per game with 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Texas Tech has been impressive at home. Cincinnati’s lone road game came at MAC school where they won 27-16. Play Texas Tech -2.5.
New Mexico vs. New Mexico St College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
New Mexico at New Mexico St 8PM ET—New Mexico sits at 0-4 following their 38-21 home defeat to Fresno St. The Lobos put up 485 yards with 147 rushing for 5.3 yards per run. On defense the Lobos allowed 345 yards to the Bulldogs with 252 passing on 34 attempts. Devon Dampier completed 33 of 53 for 338 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. New Mexico St sits at 1-3 following their 31-11 home defeat to Sam Houston St. The Aggies posted 152 yards with 78 rushing for 2.8 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 382 yards to the Bearkats with 280 rushing for 5.1 yards a carry. Santino Marucci hit 14 of 29 for 74 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
The Pick:
New Mexico defense is allowing 6.4 yards a carry with 68.3% completion rate and 9.1 yards per pass attempt. They are getting inefficient quarterback play. New Mexico St at home was competitive against Liberty in a six-point home loss. In their other home game, they defeated an FCS team. Play New Mexico St +9.
Air Force vs. Wyoming College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Air Force at Wyoming 8PM ET—Air Force fell to 1-2 following their 31-3 road defeat at Baylor. The Falcons gained 218 yards with 193 rushing for 3.4 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 478 yards to the Bears with 248 passing on 24 attempts. John Busha went 0 of 5 in defeat. He rushed for 45 yards. Wyoming is 0-4 with their 44-17 road defeat at North Texas. The Cowboys put up 244 yards with 69 rushing for 2.1 yards a carry. On defense they gave up 534 yards to the Mean Green with 318 passing on 43 attempts. Evan Svoboda connected on 11 of 23 for 155 yards with a touchdown.
The Pick:
Air Force struggling on both sides of the field. The Falcons rush for only 3.4 yards a carry and getting inaccurate passing. Defensively they are allowing 6.1 yards a carry with 75% completion rate with 10.5 yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys are defending better getting better performance from their passing game. Play Wyoming +4.
Washington St vs. Boise St College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Washington St at Boise St—Washington ST improved to 4-0 following their 54-52 home overtime win to San Jose St. The Cougars posted 627 yards with 237 rushing for 4.8 yards a carry. On defense they gave up 491 yards to the Spartans with 375 passing on 54 attempts. John Mateer went 26 of 46 for 390 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Boise St sits at 2-1 with their 56-14 home win to FCS Portland St. Three weeks ago it was a 37-34 road defeat at Oregon. The Broncos produced 369 yards with 221 rushing for 6.7 yards a carry. On defense they gave up 352 yards to the Ducks with 243 passing on 21 attempts. Maddux Madsen completed 13 of 18 for 188 yards and three touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Cougars are running for six yards a carry and making plays downfield in the passing game with 9.5 yards per pass attempt. They are holding opposing quarterbacks to 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Boise St pass defense the concern as they are allowing 64.8% completions for 7.6 yards per pass attempt. They did give up 45 points at Georgia Southern. Play Washington St +7.
Arizona vs. Utah College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Arizona at Utah 10:15PM ET—Arizona fell to 2-1 following their 31-7 road defeat at Kansas St. The Wildcats gained 324 yards with 56 rushing for 2.9 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 391 yards to the Wildcats with 235 rushing for 5.7 yards a carry. Noah Fifita completed 26 of 42 for 268 yards with an interception. Utah improved to 4-0 with their 22-19 road win at Oklahoma St. The Utes put up 456 yards with 249 rushing for 4.8 yards a carry. On defense they held the Cowboys to 285 yards with 237 passing on 44 attempts. Cam Rising is questionable with a hand injury and has missed the past two games. Isaac Wilson hit 17 of 29 for 207 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He rushed for 41 yards.
The Pick:
Arizona has struggled defensively as they are allowing 5.9 yards a carry. Offensively they are rushing for 2.9 yards a carry. Utah is rushing for 5 yards a carry. Defensively they hold opponents to 3.2 yards a carry and only 44.6% completions with 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Arizona was clobbered by the Kansas St run game. The Utes can do the same here in their home stadium. Play Utah -8.5.
Oregon vs. UCLA College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Oregon at UCLA 11PM ET—Oregon sits at 3-0 following their 49-14 road win at Oregon St. The Ducks put up 546 yards with 240 rushing for 7.5 yards a carry. On defense they held the Beavers to 309 yards with 178 passing on 35 attempts. Dillon Gabriel completed 20 of 24 for 291 yards and two touchdowns. He rushed for 64 yards and a touchdown. UCLA drops to 1-2 with their 34-17 road defeat at LSU. The Bruins posted 295 yards with 14 rushing yards on 22 carries. On defense they allowed 454 yards to the Tigers with 352 passing on 44 attempts. Ethan Garbers went 22 of 36 for 281 yards with two touchdowns and a pick.
The Pick:
Garbers performance at LSU is encouraging here. He is a senior quarterback with experience. Oregon is allowing 4.9 yards per rush. UCLA is still effective in stopping the run by allowing 3.2 yards per carry. The Bruins are averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Play UCLA +25.5.