Free College Football Picks Week 5 Part 2-9/28/2024
Colorado vs. UCF College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Colorado at UCF 3:30PM ET—Colorado improved to 3-1 following their 38-31 home overtime win to Baylor. The Buffaloes gained 432 yards with 91 rushing for under three yards per carry. On defense they allowed 314 yards to the Bears with 148 passing on 21 attempts. Shedeur Sanders hit 25 of 41 for 341 yards and two touchdowns. UCF is 3-0 with their 35-34 road win at TCU. The Knights put up 519 yards with 289 rushing for 5.4 yards per run. Defensively they allowed 460 yards to the Horned Frogs with 402 passing on 53 attempts. KJ Jefferson hit 13 of 22 for 230 yards and three touchdowns. He rushed for 46 yards.
The Pick:
We saw Colorado struggle against on the road Nebraska as they were held to 10 points. UCF is holding teams to 2.6 yards per run and only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Buffs on the road average only 3 yards a carry with 6.2 yards per pass attempt. They have been respectable defensively on the road by giving up 4.2 yards per run and 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Play Colorado and UCF under 64.5.
Western Michigan vs. Marshall College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Western Michigan at Marshall 3:30PM ET—Western Michigan sits at 1-2 with their 59-31 home win to FCS Bethune Cookman. The Broncos the week prior lost at Ohio St 56-0. In defeat the Broncos gained only 99 yards with 28 rushing on 31 carries. On defense they allowed 683 yards to the Buckeyes with 410 passing on 33 attempts. Hayden Wolff went 8 of 15 for 71 yards. Marshall fell to 1-2 with their 49-14 road defeat at Ohio St. The Thundering Herd put up 264 yards with 125 rushing for 2.9 yards a carry. Defensively they surrendered 569 yards to the Buckeyes with 280 rushing for 9 yards a carry. Stone Earle went 16 of 21 for 132 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
Western Michigan is struggling defensively as they allow 4.7 yards per carry and 66.7% completions with 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Marshall has run the football effectively with 5.3 yards a carry. Western Michigan just gave up 31 points at home to an FCS school. The Broncos are 2-5 on the road in their past seven non-conference games. Play Marshall -3.
TCU vs. Kansas College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
TCU at Kansas 3:30PM ET—TCU is 2-2 following their 66-42 road defeat at SMU. The Horned Frogs gained 480 yards with 65 rushing for two yards a carry. On defense they allowed 375 yards to the Horned Frogs with 238 rushing for 5.7 yards a carry. Josh Hoover hit 28 of 43 for 396 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Kansas fell to 1-3 following their 32-28 road defeat at West Virginia. The Jayhawks put up 531 yards with 247 rushing for 5.3 yards a carry. On defense they surrendered 443 yards to the Mountaineers with 295 passing on 30 attempts. Jalon Daniels went 15 of 25 for 184 yards with a touchdown and pick.
The Pick:
The Horned Frogs defense is allowing 217 yards rushing for 4.9 yards a carry. Their ground game is struggling with 3 yards per carry average. The Jayhawks ground attack produces 5.5 yards per carry. They are getting good defensive performance by allowing 3.7 yards per run and only 52.1% completion rate. Back-to-back road games for the Horned Frogs here where they allow an average of 46.5 points a game. Play Kansas -2.
Oklahoma vs. Auburn College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Oklahoma at Auburn 3:30PM ET—Oklahoma fell to 3-1 after their 25-15 home defeat to Tennessee. The Sooners gained only 224 yards with 36 rushing on 34 attempts. On defense they gave up 345 yards to the Volunteers with 194 passing on 21 attempts. Freshman Michael Hawkins to start at quarterback for the ineffective Jackson Arnold on Saturday. Hawkins saw action last week hitting 14 of 23 for 152 yards and a touchdown. Auburn drops to 2-2 after their 24-14 home defeat to Arkansas. The Tigers put up 431 yards with 146 rushing for 5.6 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 334 yards to the Razorbacks with 183 rushing for 3.3 yards per run. Hank Brown hit 7 of 13 passes for 72 yards and three interceptions.
The Pick:
Freshman quarterback in a tough environment for the Sooners. Oklahoma offense has struggled with only 3.6 yards a carry and 5.5 yards per pass attempt. They are allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt on defense. Auburn offense rushes for 6.2 yards a carry. They are throwing for 284 yards per game with 9.8 yards per pass attempt but most of these numbers came against weak opponents. First road game for Oklahoma. Play Auburn +2.
Fresno St vs. UNLV College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Fresno St at UNLV 3:30PM ET—Fresno St improved to 3-1 following their 38-21 road win at New Mexico. The Bulldogs gained 345 yards with 93 rushing for under three yards a carry. On defense they allowed 485 yards to the Lobos with 338 passing yards on 53 attempts. Mikey Keene hit 26 of 33 for 226 yards with a touchdown. UNLV is 3-0 after their 23-20 road win at Kansas. The Rebels posted 267 yards with 181 rushing for 3.9 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 352 yards to the Jayhawks with 199 rushing for 5.7 yards a carry. Hajj Malik Williams expected to start as Matthew Sulka redshirts. Williams is a transfer from Campbell who has rushed for 88 yards on ten carries. This year. He is a mobile quarterback based on his starts from Campbell.
The Pick:
Sulka was an ineffective passer with UNLV. Williams was accurate at his FCS school. Fresno St is not getting much production on the ground with 3.8 yards a carry. That win at Kansas was impressive for the Rebels. UNLV defense has performed well holding opponents to 4.2 yards per run and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Play UNLV -1.5.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M—Game played on neutral field at AT&T Stadium. Arkansas improved to 3-1 following their 24-14 road win at Auburn. The Razorbacks gained 334 yards with 183 rushing for 3.3 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 431 yards to the Tigers with 285 passing on 35 attempts. Taylen Green hit 12 of 27 for 151 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Texas A&M is 3-1 with their 26-20 home win to Bowling Green. The Aggies posted 408 yards with 235 rushing for 5.5 yards per run. On defense they held the Falcons to 339 yards with 250 passing on 37 attempts. Conner Weigman has missed the past two games with a shoulder injury. He is a game time decision. Marcel Reed went 16 of 29 for 173 yards with two touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Aggies have run the football effectively with 256 yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry. They defend well holding opponents to 4.3 yards a carry and only 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Razorbacks are giving up 242 yards passing per game with 7 yards per pass attempt. The Aggies are 4-1 to the spread when favored by -3.5 to -10. Play Texas A&M -4.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Louisville at Notre Dame 3:30PM ET—Louisville improved to 3-0 following their 31-19 home win to Georgia Tech. The Cardinals gained 326 yards with 57 rushing for 2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 410 yards to the Yellow Jackets with 312 passing on 32 attempts. Tyler Shough went 13 of 19 for 269 yards with two touchdowns. Notre Dame is 3-1 after their 28-3 home win to Miami Ohio. The Fighting Irish put up 428 yards with 270 rushing for 7.5 yards a carry. On defense they held the Redhawks to 229 yards with 119 passing on 36 attempts. Riley Leonard hit 16 of 25 for 154 yards with a touchdown.
The Pick:
Notre Dame run offense impressive as they are averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Their defensive has been outstanding by allowing 3.6 yards per carry and 42.7% completions for 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Louisville has piled up stats with Austin Peay and Jacksonville St in two of their three games. The Cardinals run offense and pass defense against the Yellow Jackets the concern here. Play Notre Dame -6.5.
Wisconsin vs. USC College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Wisconsin at USC 3:30PM ET—Wisconsin fell to 2-1 with their 42-10 home defeat to Alabama. The Badgers put up 290 yards with 149 rushing for 3.6 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 407 yards to the Crimson Tide with 226 passing on 22 attempts. Braedyn Locke hit 13 of 26 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown. He was the backup inserted as starter after the injury to Tyler Van Dyke. USC fell to 2-1 after their 27-24 road defeat at Michigan. The Trojans gained 379 yards with 96 rushing for under for under five yards a carry. On defense they allowed 322 yards to the Wolverines with 290 rushing for 6.3 yards a carry. Miller Moss completed 28 of 51 for 283 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
Tough spot for Wisconsin behind a backup starting at quarterback. Wisconsin’s rush game not strong enough to exploit the USC defense with a 4 yards per rush average. They are passing for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. On defense the Badgers give up 4.5 yards a carry on the ground along with 7.5 yards per pass attempt. USC is running for 5.3 yards a carry and throwing for 319 yards a game with 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Trojans have defended the pass well. The Trojans are 5-0 to the spread in their past five home September games. Play USC -15.5.
UTSA vs. East Carolina College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
UTSA at East Carolina 4PM ET—UTSA improved to 2-2 after their 45-7 home victory to FCS Houston Christian. Two weeks ago, it was a 56-7 road defeat at Texas. The Roadrunners gained 260 yards with 130 rushing for 3.3 yards a carry. On defense they surrendered 614 yards to the Longhorns with 427 passing on 32 attempts. Owen McCown hit 21 of 29 for 132 yards. He was effective against his FCS opponent last week. East Carolina fell to 2-2 with their 35-24 road defeat at Liberty. The Pirates put up 331 yards with 127 rushing for 4 yards per run. On defense they allowed 414 yards to the Flames with 191 rushing for 4.2 yards per run. Jake Garcia completed 20 of 36 for 204 yards and an interception.
The Pick:
East Carolina has struggled with their ground attack this season. UTSA has gotten accuracy at the quarterback position and on defense are stopping the run. ECU has a home loss by two to a down Appalachian St. Play UTSA +4.
North Carolina vs. Duke College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
North Carolina at Duke 4PM ET—North Carolina fell to 3-1 following their 70-50 home defeat to James Madison. The Tar Heels put up 616 yards with 141 rushing for 4.5 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 611 yards to the Dukes with 388 passing on 34 attempts. Jacolby Criswell completed 28 of 48 for 475 yards with three touchdowns and two picks. Duke improved to 4-0 after their 45-17 road win at Middle Tennessee St. The Blue Devils put up 340 yards with 124 rushing for 3.5 yards a carry. On defense they held the Blue Raiders to 295 yards with 168 rushing for 4.2 yards a carry. Maalik Murphy hit 14 of 21 for 216 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
Duke has defended well by holding teams to 3.4 yards per run and 4.2 yards per pass attempt. They have been efficient through the air with 64.6% completions for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Their biggest challenge came in an overtime win at Northwestern. North Carolina has not covered a spread in four games this year. The pass defense has been poor for the Tar Heels as they are giving up 8.8 yards per pass attempt and they face a Duke team that is strong in the passing game. Play Duke -3.
Mississippi St vs. Texas College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Mississippi St at Texas 4:15PM ET—Mississippi St fell to 1-3 following their 45-28 home defeat to Florida. The Bulldogs gained 480 yards with 240 rushing for 4.3 yards a carry. On defense the Bulldogs allowed 503 yards to the Gators with 226 rushing for 6.3 yards a carry. Blake Shapen hit 13 of 21 for 140 yards with a touchdown. Michael Van Buren is expected to start and hit 7 of 13 for 100 yards. Texas sits at 4-0 with their 51-3 home win to UL Monroe. The Longhorns put up 497 yards with 239 rushing for 4.6 yards a carry. Defensively they held the Warhawks to 111 yards with 54 passing on 25 attempts. Arch Manning hit 15 of 29 for 258 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Quinn Ewers is questionable at quarterback.
The Pick:
Mississippi St has a passing game that completes 65.3% of their passes with 8.7 yards per pass attempt. They have struggled defensively by allowing 5.1 yards per run and 71.1% completions. Texas is getting great offensive production with 4.8 yards per run and 68% completion rate with 9.9 yards per pass attempt. They defend the run and pass well. The Bulldogs gave up 45 at home to Florida last week and 41 to Toledo two weeks ago. Play Mississippi St and Texas over 62.5.
Old Dominion vs. Bowling Green College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Old Dominion at Bowling Green 5PM ET—Old Dominion fell to 0-3 following their 37-13 home defeat to Virginia Tech. The Monarchs gained 293 yards with 243 rushing for 6.2 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 465 yards to the Hokies with 289 rushing for 5.7 yards per carry. Grant Wilson missed the game due to injury and questionable here. Quinn Henicle was 5 of 12 for 38 yards and an interception. Bowling Green drops to 1-2 after their 26-20 road defeat at Texas A&M. The Falcons put up 339 yards with 89 rushing for 3.9 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 408 yards to the Aggies with 235 rushing for 5.5 yards a carry. Connor Bazelak completed 20 of 36 for 250 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
ODU has defended holding opponents to 4.1 yards per carry and 57.5% completion rate for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Falcon’s defense is allowing 5.3 yards a carry and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Old Dominion was competitive in a 23-19 road loss at South Carolina. Play Old Dominion +9.5.
Louisiana Tech vs. FIU College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Louisiana Tech at FIU 6PM ET—Louisiana Tech drops to 1-2 after their 23-20 home overtime defeat to Tulsa. The Bulldogs put up 285 yards with 87 rushing for just over two yards per carry. On defense they allowed 333 yards to the Golden Hurricane with 228 passing yards on 36 attempts. Jack Turner hit 7 of 14 passes for 41 yards. Evan Bullock relieved and went 4 of 6 for 49 yards and a touchdown. FIU fell to 1-3 with their 45-42 home defeat to FCS Monmouth. Two weeks ago, it was a 38-20 road loss at FAU. The Golden Panthers posted 368 yards with 87 rushing for 3.5 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 420 yards to the Owls with 259 rushing for 5 yards per run. Keyone Jenkins completed 21 of 35 for 281 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Pick:
Louisiana Tech is running for only 2.4 yards per carry. They are getting inaccurate quarterback play with 53.1% completion rate. FIU passing game is generating 64.9% completions with 7.9 yards per pass attempt. They hold opponents to 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Louisiana Tech is 4-10 to the spread on the road. Play FIU +3.
Stanford vs. Clemson College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Stanford at Clemson 7PM ET—Stanford improved to 2-1 following their 26-25 road win at Syracuse. The Cardinal gained 351 yards with 173 rushing for 5.4 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 365 yards to the Orange with 26 rushing yards on 17 carries. Ashton Daniels completed 23 of 38 for 178 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Clemson is 2-1 with their 59-35 home win to NC State. The Tigers posted 523 yards with 269 rushing for 8.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 436 yards to the Wolfpack with 257 passing on 31 attempts. Case Klubnik hit 16 of 24 passes for 209 yards and three touchdowns.
The Pick:
Tough scheduling spot for Stanford playing back to back road games at Syracuse and now at Clemson. The Cardinals pass defense struggles as they are allowing 66.7% completions and 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Clemson offense is rolling with 6.3 yards per run and 69.6% completion rate with 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Stanford is 0-4 to the spread in consecutive road games. They are 1-5 to the spread on the road against good passing teams that average 8 yards per pass attempt or greater. Play Clemson -21.5.
Iowa St vs. Houston College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Iowa St at Houston 7PM ET—Iowa St improved to 3-0 following their 52-7 home win to Arkansas ST. The Cyclones gained 490 yards with 237 rushing for 4.9 yards a carry. On defense they held the Red Wolves to 182 yards with 64 rushing for under two yards a carry. Rocco Becht hit 11 of 18 for 204 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Houston fell to 1-3 after their 34-0 road defeat at Cincinnati. The Cougars posted only 233 yards with 141 rushing for 4.3 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 362 yards with 213 passing on 18 attempts. Donovan Smith completed 11 of 16 for 73 yards and pick.
The Pick:
The Cyclones on the ground are running for only 4.2 yards a carry. They beat Iowa on the road by one and faced two weak opponents. The Cougars defensively are holding opponents to 3.6 yards a carry and only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. They played Oklahoma tough with a four point road loss. Play Houston +14.5.