As Week 4 of the NFL season continues, the Jacksonville Jaguars are heading to NRG Stadium to play the Houston Texans; this is a division rivalry that could change the early order of the standings in the league. Based on their early season records, the two head-to-head are evenly matched, which is crucial for the Texans, who want to keep their winning ways and the Jaguars, who seek their first win. This game is a bit different regarding the NFL free picks. One cannot look at it in isolation, especially with the finesse the betting line deals with.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans 9/29/24 Game Info |
|
| When: | Sunday, September 29, 2024, at 1:00 PM ET |
| Where: | NRG Stadium |
| TV: | CBS |
| Stream: | NFL Game Pass |
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) vs. Houston Texans (2-1)
The Jacksonville Jaguars, off to a rocky 0-3 start, are set to face the Houston Texans, who hold a more promising record of 2-1, in an NFL Week 4 matchup. In their last outing against Buffalo, the Jaguars were trounced 47-10, highlighting ongoing defensive woes and a sputtering offense that has yet to find its rhythm. This game puts the Jaguars in a position where they desperately need a win to turn their season around, while the Texans aim to solidify their early success. As they prepare for the clash at NRG Stadium, the focus is on whether Jacksonville can overcome their early challenges and capture their first victory.
On the other hand, the Houston Texans have shown resilience in their gameplay, securing two wins in their first three games. Though they faced a setback against Minnesota last week, losing 34-7, their overall performance has been bolstered by a solid defensive showing. With home-field advantage and a strong start to the season, the Texans are favorites in this matchup. The game promises to showcase a battle of determination from the struggling Jaguars against the steadier Texans, making it a crucial encounter for both teams as they progress through the season.
Trevor Lawrence QB vs. C.J. Stroud QB
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t had it easy this season—he’s been very inconsistent and a lot of pressure is on him as he has limited touchdowns to two and interceptions to one, with 11 sacks. For Lawrence who has barely completed more than half of his passes, the struggles of the Jaguars offense are evident. If the Jaguars are to register their maiden victory, he will have to make those deep throws and cushion the pocket against the tenacious Texans’ defense.
On the other hand, C. J. Stroud has embraced the challenges of being a quarterback for the Texans well. He has a completion rate of 67.7% having passed for 709 yards with four touchdowns, depicting his higher efficiency and sound decision making which were crucial. Looking forward to that game, Collins’ offensive contributions against a depleted Jaguars’ defense may help build upon what could end up being an offensive outburst, especially if he still utilizes Collins as they did last week.
And even as both quarterbacks prepare for battle, the most important of it all is hailed in the fact of whose defense will be breached faster by the respective quarterbacks. Stroud looks like he will be able to take advantage of the mistakes in Jacksonville’s defense, while Lawrence, for his part, has to find a way through the tough home defense of Texas so that his team can change the tide.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Houston Texans -3.5 (-120), Total Odds: 47
The odds of betting come into play here as well with the Texans being the favorite and that backed by the betting line of -3.5 possibly due to their home-ground advantage as they have done well in the past. The over/under line set at 47 gives a belief of a slightly more high-paced encounter, perhaps with the Texan’s offense ruthless against the ailing Jacksonville defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends
The Jaguars have not instilled much confidence lately, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games and 1-8 SU in their last 9 games. Coupled with consecutive games played for their inability to cover the spreads, going UNDER the total in 5 of their last 7 games, means that such loss of faith in their ability to digest offensive scroes is still quite rational.
Houston Texans Betting Trends
In recent games, Houston has actually been performing better as they are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games. It should be noted that they are usually able to cover the spread while playing in front of their supporters. Usually leading to a low score, their excellent defense has considerably contributed to the frequent UNDER in such outings.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans 9/29/24 Betting Picks
Due to the above reasoning and related betting patterns, it is recommended to wet a line on the Houston Texans spread. Considering both the Texans’ brilliant win at home and the way the Jaguars play, Houston looks set to win this one easily. The balanced offense and reliable defense of the Texans are sufficient to support the choice of the better odds even against this Jaguars team that is just starting to hook up this term.
When it comes to prop bets as well as over/under options this writer would advise taking on the UNDER side because of the tendency of both teams. The best premium pick today is betting for Nico Collins wide receiver of Texans, anytime touchdown scorer accompanied by the Texans covering the -3.5 spread.