With NCAAF Week 5 almost here, it is an essential clash at Tiger Stadium where the South Alabama Jaguars (2-2) will try to stand against the LSU Tigers (3-1). Both teams have displayed sufficient firepower on the offensive end and proved challenging enough to their opponents in their earlier season games. The stage has been set for what surely will be an exciting match under the Saturday night lights on the 28 September 2024, at 19:45 ET on SECN. This game has been pegged as one of the best NCAAF free picks of the week, owing to the mass interest from fans and bettors.
South Alabama Jaguars vs. LSU Tigers 9/28/24 Game Info |
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| When: | Saturday, September 28, 2024, at 7:45 PM ET |
| Where: | Tiger Stadium |
| TV: | SECN |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
South Alabama Jaguars (2-2) vs. LSU Tigers (3-1)
The South Alabama Jaguars have been an intriguing team to watch this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They’ve demonstrated a strong rushing and receiving game, notably in their last games, including a dominating win against Appalachian State and an overwhelming victory over Northwestern State. The key to their rushing attack was Fluff Bothwell, who amassed 359 yards on just 37 attempts and punched in six touchdowns. On the receiving end, Jamaal Pritchett has been equally impressive, hauling 26 receptions for 355 yards and four touchdowns, becoming a primary target for quarterback Gio Lopez.
In contrast, the LSU Tigers have shown their might at home, boasting an undefeated streak at Tiger Stadium that stretches back over the last 12 games. Their previous games have been a testament to their balanced attack, with recent wins including a victory against UCLA and a tight win over South Carolina. LSU’s running back Josh Williams, though not as explosive per carry, brings consistency and toughness to the ground game, supported by wide receiver Aaron Anderson, who’s been pivotal in stretching defenses with his 298 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Gio Lopez QB vs. Garrett Nussmeier QB
At the helm of the Jaguars, Gio Lopez has done exceptionally well, as he has recorded 843 passing yards with 9 touchdowns and an astonishing 0 interceptions, providing leadership to South Alabama without any flaws. Lopez’s ability to throw the ball downfield under duress has been important, even though the overall sack number and the total number of yards lost indicate weaknesses against the strong defense.
On the contrary, the LSU Tigers’ Garrett Nussmeier has passed for 1,247 yards and made 13 touchdowns with a marginally better completion percentage of 70.6 percent and excellent presence in the pocket. Although Nussmeier has been sacked Nussmeier’s judgement on the field in the face of pressure, with two picks already thrown, will be the concern against a hostile South Alabama defense waiting to pounce on any fantasies.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: LSU Tigers -20.5 (-115), Total Odds: 66.5
The betting line shows a hefty bias towards the LSU Tigers, which is quite understandable because of their impressive record at home and the firepower on the offense. The o/u trends in most of the last matches of both teams present the picture of another possible high-scoring game.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Trends
The Jaguars are projected to win big, however, best betting sites report a rather alarming trend for them – the ATS support is rather weak and especially on the road and SEC teams. The last twenty matches have brought 7-13 ATS registered by the MTSU which indicates that they tend to do poorly when presented with big spreads during critical moments of the game and will make sports bettors worry about them getting their money.
LSU Tigers Betting Trends
In contrast, one of the concerning issues for LSU, which lost its last five against the spread, was its last performance with South Alabama posting such a large line. Hence, their winning tendency as Straight up against South Alabama and other teams from the Sunbelt conference will help those who support this guideline.
South Alabama Jaguars vs. LSU Tigers 9/28/24 Betting Picks
Given the attacking capabilities of both teams, along with their respective defensive weaknesses, it can be anticipated that this game is set up for scoring. However, given the large point spread for LSU and their recent points spread coverage weaknesses, South Alabama +20.5 is an enticing option. Even though it’s reasonable to assume that South Alabama won’t win the game, their offensive capabilities may allow them to pull off the upset and force the game to drawback to the predicted differential.
Focus on player touchdowns for prop bets, especially LSU’s Josh Williams and South Alabama’s Fluff Bothwell, as they have shown the ability to score TDs. The total going over seems reasonable because it is consistent with the level of offensive prowess on the floor, as in both teams’ recent matches. As for the handicapper analysis today, the figure seems to support South Alabama plus due points, as the match may be closer than what the betting odds depict.