As the weather changes and the months draw in on the calendar, the Minnesota Golden Gophers 2-2 will have a tough test against the Michigan Wolverines 3-1 in an inspiring Week 5 fixture of the NCAAF season. The battle will be played on Saturday, September 28, 2024, at the grand Michigan Stadium, with the kickoff time 12:00 PM ET. Fans can watch this contest through FOX and plenty of NCAAF free picks and predictions.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines 9/28/24 Game Info |
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| When: | Saturday, September 28, 2024, at 12:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Michigan Stadium |
| TV: | FOX |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-2) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3-1)
The Minnesota season has been full of ups and downs as expected of a team finding their identity. Indeed, the last few games illustrate how the season has been played out. After a humiliating defeat at the hands of Iowa, they came back and completely dominated Nevada, shutting them out in the game. The ground offense spearheaded by Darius Taylor, who averages an impressive 6.3 yards per carry, has been encouraging, besides the commendable work of Daniel Jackson, who has made many important otherwise deep plays without scoring a touchdown this season. However, consistency is still lacking, especially on the road, which is worrisome since they are off to Michigan Stadium, one of the most unfriendly environments in college football.
Conversely, the Michigan Wolverines have enjoyed a more prosperous start to their campaign, marked by a solid 3-1 record. Their most recent outings include narrow victories against strong opponents like USC and a steady performance against Arkansas State. The Wolverines were effective on the ground as Kalel Mullings has performed well rushing for 429 yards. Semaj Morgan has not managed that many yards but has been able to put on good performances in the most important instances, scoring at least once. Because of a good home record, it is safe to say that Michigan will have a lot of confidence as they are one of the strongest in-form teams.
Max Brosmer QB vs. Davis Warren QB
Max Brosmer has had a tremendous impact on the Golden Gophers with a much above-average passer rating of 136.6. He also had negative net yards due to fumbles and one touchdown five interceptions. 39 yards was the furthest he threw. This ability will be paramount to penetrating the Wolverines’ defense. Based on Brosmer’s performances this season, some potential is there, though the expected sharper end game under pressure is still lacking.
For Michigan, Davis Warren’s season, in a nutshell, is a story of restrained positivity interspersed with areas of improvement. He completed an even better 66.7% of his attempts than Brosmer managed but has been rather gross with interceptions, tossing six against just two touchdowns. These figures are mirrored by his passer rating, which is at 111. These numbers show a quarterback who can make plays but with many mistakes.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Michigan Wolverines -12.5 (-110), Total Odds: 40.5
The odds are tipping heavily in favor of Michigan, not just for their stronger start to the season but also their historical dominance over Minnesota. The spread sits at -12.5 for Michigan, reflecting expectations of a relatively comfortable win. However, bettors should consider the volatile nature of college football, where a single play can swing fortunes dramatically.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Trends
The betting trends for Minnesota are not encouraging. They have struggled against the spread in recent matchups against Michigan and have a poor record ATS in their last 11 games overall. Their challenges on the road and within the Big Ten are notable, suggesting that betting on them, especially in a tough environment like Michigan Stadium, carries significant risk.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends
Conversely, Michigan’s betting trends provide a more positive outlook. Their ATS record is strong over the last 15 games, and they have a formidable record at home. The Wolverines have also consistently performed well against the over in recent games, a trend that could influence bets if their offense clicks as expected.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines 9/28/24 Betting Picks
Based on our analysis and the frequent betting patterns, the state of Michigan is the stronger bet. Judging from their impressive home record and positive ATS, they are very likely to cover the spread. Minnesota is sometimes brilliant but as a rule, they have not fared well on the road or against Big Ten teams, and this adds to the positives for Michigan.
Therefore, it is easy to understand why focusing on Michigan -12.5 will be the best way for those who want to place better bets. Although these types of contests often go over the necessary spread, under 40.5 seems reasonable considering the history been under when these two met. Apparently, expert premium predictions would also suggest Kalel Mullings as an anytime touchdown scorer based on his form.