Free College Football Picks Week 5 Part 1-9/28/2024
Northern Illinois vs. NC State College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Northern Illinois at NC State 12PM ET—Northern Illinois fell to 2-1 following their 23-20 home overtime defeat to Buffalo. The Huskies gained 364 yards with 165 rushing for 3.9 yards per run. On defense they allowed 184 yards to the Bulls with 107 passing on 17 attempts. Ethan Hampton hit 23 of 43 for 194 yards with an interception. NC State drops to 2-2 after their 59-35 road defeat to Clemson. The Wolfpack put up 430 yards with 183 rushing for 4.8 yards per run. On defense they allowed 523 yards to the Tigers with 269 rushing for 7.9 yards per run. Grayson McCall missed the game due to an injury. CJ Bailey went 16 of 25 for 204 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
Northern Illinois does have a road win at Notre Dame. The Huskies are defending well holding opponents to 3.1 yards per run and only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. They are efficient offensively with 5.2 yards per carry on the ground with 8.5 yards per pass attempt. NC State has struggled in run defense giving up 5.9 yards a carry. In the passing game they are allowing 247 yards passing per game for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. McCall injury is a concern. NIU is 8-1 to the spread as a road underdog. NC State is 3-7 as a home favorite. Play Northern Illinois +7.
Maryland vs. Indiana College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Maryland at Indiana 12PM ET—Maryland improved to 3-1 with their 38-20 home win to FCS Villanova. Two weeks ago, it was a 27-13 road win at Virginia. The Terrapins gained 391 yards with 128 rushing for 3.5 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 360 yards to the Cavaliers with 247 passing on 37 attempts. Billy Edwards went 28 of 43 for 263 yards with two touchdowns. Indiana sits at 4-0 after their 52-14 home win to Charlotte. The Hoosiers put up 510 yards with 222 rushing for 5.5 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 256 yards to the 49ers with 119 passing on 23 attempts. Kurtis Rourke completed 16 of 20 for 258 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
Indiana is getting balance to their offense. They rush for 5.7 yards per carry and complete 72.6% of their passes for 10.9 yards per pass attempt. They are effective in run and pass defense. Maryland’s loss came at home to Michigan St. The Terrapins rush for only 4.3 yards per attempt and allow 247 yards passing for 7 yards per pass attempt. Play Indiana -7.
Buffalo vs. Connecticut College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Buffalo at UCONN 12PM ET—Buffalo moves to 3-1 following their 23-20 road overtime win at Northern Illinois. The Bulls produced 184 yards with 77 rushing for 2.1 yards per carry. On defense they held the Huskies to 359 yards with 165 rushing for 3.9 yards per run. C.J. Ogbonna hit 10 of 17 for 107 yards with a touchdown. UCONN is 2-2 after their 48-14 home win to FAU. The Huskies put up 542 yards with 421 rushing for 6.4 yards a carry. On defense they held the Owls to 250 yards with 87 passing on 16 attempts. Nick Evers completed 9 of 14 passes for 88 yards and a touchdown. He rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Buffalo deals with issues offensively as they run for only 3.5 yards a carry and has been inaccurate at the quarterback position. Connecticut is getting great production on the ground. The Huskies were competitive at Duke two weeks ago with a 26-21 road loss. They are 9-4 to the spread in their past 13 home games and 2-0 to the spread at home facing teams that overage 310 yards per game or lower. Play UCONN -5.5.
Western Kentucky vs. Boston College College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Western Kentucky at Boston College—Western Kentucky improved to 3-1 following their 26-21 home win to Toledo. The Hilltoppers posted 313 yards with 71 rushing for 3.3 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 325 yards to the Rockets with 200 passing yards on 33 attempts. Caden Veltkamp hit 20 of 30 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Boston College is 3-1 with their 23-19 home win to Michigan St. The Eagles posted 292 yards with 152 rushing for 3.5 yards per carry. Defensively BC allowed 368 yards to the Spartans with 241 passing on 35 attempts. Thomas Castellanos completed 10 of 16 for 140 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
WKU got good performance from their passing game with 68.5% completion and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. WKU has covered five of their past six games and 11 of 17 on the road. Boston College is 1-6 to the spread as a home favorite. Play Western Kentucky +13.
Nebraska vs. Purdue College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Nebraska at Purdue 12PM ET—Nebraska fell to 3-1 following their 31-24 home overtime defeat to Illinois. The Cornhuskers put up 345 yards with 48 rushing for under two yards per run. On defense they allowed 281 yards to the Fighting Illini with 166 rushing for 4.2 yards per run. Dylan Raiola completed 24 of 25 for 297 yards with three touchdowns and a pick. Purdue drops to 1-2 after their 38-21 road defeat at Oregon St. The Boilermakers gained 319 yards with 263 rushing for 8.7 yards per run. On defense they allowed 445 yards to the Beavers with 341 rushing for 6 yards per carry. Hudson Card completed only 7 of 17 for 56 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
Purdue is getting poor quarterback play in their losses to FBS opponents. Card is hitting only 43.9% with 4.4 yards per pass attempt. Nebraska has defended well holding opponents to 3 yards per run and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Purdue pass defenders limit their foes to 61% completions with 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Play Nebraska and Purdue under 49.
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Kentucky at Ole Miss 12PM ET—Kentucky improved to 2-2 following their 41-6 home win to Ohio. The Wildcats gained 488 yards with 206 rushing for five yards per run. On defense they held the Bobcats to 223 yards with 110 passing on 19 attempts. Brock Vandagriff completed 17 of 24 passes for 237 yards. Ole Miss is 4-0 with their 52-13 home win to Georgia Southern. The Rebels had 607 yards with 219 rushing for 6.1 yards per run. Defensively the Rebels allowed 295 yards to the Eagles with 157 passing on 33 attempts. Jaxson Dart hit 22 of 31 for 382 yards with four touchdowns and a pick.
The Pick:
Ole Miss getting it done on both sides. They rush for 6.3 yards a carry and get accurate and efficient quarterback work from the experienced Dart. On defense they allow 1.2 yards per run and only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Kentucky rushing for only 4.3 yards per carry and have issues with accuracy at the quarterback position. The Wildcats are 0-2 to the spread as a road underdog of +10.5 to +21. Ole Miss is 6-2 to the spread at home in September games. Play Ole Miss -17.
Oklahoma St vs. Kansas St College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Oklahoma St at Kansas St 12PM ET—Oklahoma St fell to 3-1 following their 22-19 home loss to Utah. The Cowboys gained 285 yards with 48 rushing for 3.1 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 456 yards to the Utes with 249 rushing for 4.8 yards per carry. Alan Bowman hit 16 of 33 for 206 yards with two touchdowns and two picks. Kansas St drops to 3-1 with their 38-9 road defeat to BYU. The Wildcats posted 367 yards with 228 rushing for 5.3 yards per carry. Defensively they held the Cougars to 241 yards with 92 rushing for under four yards per rush. Avery Johnson went 15 of 28 for 130 yards and two interceptions.
The Pick:
Kansas St defense has been good this season as they hold opponents to 2.8 yards per run. They held Arizona to seven points at home. Avery Johnson efficiency at quarterback the concern. They are a good running team so expect high volume rushes here. Oklahoma St struggles to run and are allowing 4.5 yards a carry to opponents. The Wildcats are 4-1 to the under at home as a favorite of seven points or fewer. Play Oklahoma St and Kansas St under 56.
USF vs. Tulane College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
USF at Tulane 12PM ET—USF drops to 2-2 with their 50-15 home defeat to Miami. The Bulls gained 365 yards with 62 rushing for nearly two yards per run. On defense they allowed 592 yards to the Hurricanes with 404 passing yards on 34 attempts. Byrum Brown hit 19 of 30 for 254 yards. Tulane improved to 2-2 after their 41-33 road win at Louisiana. The Green Wave posted 355 yards with 272 rushing for 5.8 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 471 yards to the Ragin Cajuns with 183 rushing for 6.8 yards per carry. Darian Mensah went 11 of 17 for 83 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
USF is getting poor quarterback play with inaccuracy and inefficiency. The team defends the run effectively with 3.7 yards per rush allowed. Tulane runs at high volume with an average of 39 per game an effective with 5 yards per carry. The Green Wave allows only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Tulane is 10-6 to the under as a home favorite. Play USF and Tulane under 64.5.
Navy vs. UAB College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Navy at UAB 12PM ET—Navy is 3-0 following their 56-44 home win to Memphis. The Midshipmen produced 566 yards with 361 rushing for 9.3 yards per run. On defense they allowed 659 yards to the Tigers with 385 passing on 57 attempts. Blake Horvath completed 9 of 12 passes for 192 yards with two touchdowns. He rushed for 211 yards and four touchdowns. UAB is 1-2 after their 37-27 road defeat at Arkansas. The Blazers produced 354 yards with 119 rushing for 3.4 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 427 yards to the Razorbacks with 266 rushing to seven yards a carry. Jacob Zeno hit 23 of 32 for 235 yards with three touchdowns and a pick.
The Pick:
Zeno is an experienced quarterback. The Blazers are completing 70.1% of their passes and are defending the pass effectively. Navy is giving up 4.7 yards a carry. They are giving up 289 yards passing per game. Play UAB +3.5.
BYU vs. Baylor College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
BYU at Baylor 12PM ET—BYU improved to 4-0 following their 38-9 home win to Kansas St. The Cougars gained only 241 yards with 92 rushing for under four yards per run. On defense they allowed 367 yards to the Wildcats with only 139 passing on 29 attempts. Jake Retzlaff completed 15 of 21 for 149 yards with two touchdowns. Baylor fell to 2-2 after their 38-31 road defeat in overtime at Colorado. The Bears posted 314 yards with 166 rushing for four yards per carry. On defense they allowed 432 yards to the Buffs with 341 passing on 41 attempts. Dequan Finn missed the game due to injury and questionable this week. Sawyer Robertson went 11 of 21 for 148 yards with two touchdowns.
The Pick:
First road test for the Cougars here. Their running game is producing only 4 yards a carry. Baylor is getting big plays downfield in the passing game with 8.4 yards per pass attempt on the year. On defense the Bears are holding opponents to 3.3 yards per run and only 52.9% completion rate with 6.5 yards per pass attempt. BYU is 3-5 to the spread as a road underdog. Baylor is 4-0 at home to the spread coming off a road loss. Play Baylor -3.5.
Minnesota vs. Michigan College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Minnesota at Michigan 12PM ET—Minnesota fell to 2-2 following their 31-14 home defeat to Iowa. The Golden Gophers put up only 288 yards with 79 rushing for under four yards per run. On defense they allowed 334 yards to the Hawkeyes with 272 rushing for 6 yards per run. Max Brosmer hit 22 of 37 for 209 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Michigan moves to 3-1 with their 27-24 home win to USC. The Wolverines put up 322 yards with 290 rushing for 6.3 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 379 yards to the Trojans with 283 passing on 52 attempts. Alex Orji went 7 of 12 for 32 yards.
The Pick:
Minnesota is getting poor run production with 3.8 yards a carry. They were held to 14 points at home to Iowa and 17 at home to North Carolina, all resulting in losses. The Wolverines are running the football well with 5.6 yards a carry. Defensively they are limiting opponents to 3.1 yards per run and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota is 3-7 to the spread on the road. Brosmer’s performance against his FBS opponents was not encouraging. Play Michigan -9.
Ball St vs. James Madison College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Ball St at James Madison 1:30PM ET—Ball St fell to 1-2 following their 37-34 road defeat at Central Michigan. The Cardinals gained 431 yards with 146 rushing for 3.9 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 523 yards to the Chippewas with 335 rushing for 10 yards per carry. Kadin Semonza hit 30 of 40 for 285 yards with three touchdowns. James Madison improved to 3-0 with their 70-50 road win at North Carolina. The Dukes gained 611 yards with 223 rushing for 5.7 yards per carry. On defense they surrendered 616 yards to the Tar Heels with 475 passing on 48 attempts. Alonza Barnett was 22 of 34 for 388 yards with five touchdowns.
The Pick:
Ball St defense is the major concern here. They allow 7.4 yards per rush. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 69% of their passes with 10.3 yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals are running for only 3.4 yards a carry and have a inefficient passing game that averages 5.9 yards per pass attempt. The Dukes offense is putting up 5.2 yards per run and 10 yards per pass attempt. Ball St allowed 34 points at home to an FCS team in Missouri St. They fell 62-0 at Miami. Play James Madison -20.5.
Texas St vs. Sam Houston St College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Texas St vs. Sam Houston St 3PM ET—Game played at neutral field at NRG Stadium. Texas St fell to 2-1 following their 31-28 home defeat to Arizona St. The Bobcats posted 400 yards with 132 rushing for over four yards per carry. Defensively they allowed 347 yards to the Sun Devils with 246 passing on 30 attempts. Jordan McCloud hit 29 of 44 passes for 268 yards with four touchdowns and a pick. Sam Houston is 3-1 following their 31-11 home win to New Mexico St. The Bearkats put up 382 yards with 280 rushing for 5.1 yards a carry. On defense they held the Aggies to 152 yards with 74 passing on 29 attempts. Hunter Watson completed 9 of 21 for 64 yards and two interceptions. He rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Sam Houston is getting efficient work in their passing game with 7.2 yards per pass attempt. They are running for 4.4 yards a carry and that is help from the mobile Watson. Pass defense for the Bearkats has been good by holding opposing quarterbacks to 57.6% completions and 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Lots of stats were put up by Texas St against Lamar and UTSA. Play Sam Houston +8.5.
Eastern Michigan vs. Kent College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Eastern Michigan at Kent 3:30PM ET—Eastern Michigan improved to 3-1 after their 36-0 home win to FCS St Francis Pennsylvania. Two weeks ago it was a 37-34 home overtime win to Jacksonville St. The Eagles posted 447 yards with 152 rushing for under three yards a carry. On defense they allowed 423 yards to the Gamecocks with 311 passing on 34 attempts. Cole Snyder hit 26 of 37 for 273 yards and two touchdowns. Kent is 0-4 with their 56-0 road defeat at Penn St. The Golden Flashes put up 66 yards with 18 passing yards on 13 attempts. Defensively they allowed 718 yards to the Nittany Lions with 409 passing on 31 attempts. Tommy Ulatowski went 0 of 6 in defeat. He was the fourth stringer after injuries to their three other quarterbacks put him in the starting role.
The Pick:
This was a massive rebuild season for the Golden Flashes. Now relegated to their fourth string QB under center. The Eagles just blew out an FCS team. They are capable here of a blowout win. EMU defends the run well and gets efficient quarterback play. Kent rushes for only 1.7 yards a carry. On defense they allow 6.3 yards per run with 10 yards per pass attempt. Play Eastern Michigan -14.5.
Liberty vs. Appalachian St College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Liberty at Appalachian ST 3:30PM ET—Liberty is 4-0 on the year following their 35-24 home win to East Carolina. The Flames gained 414 yards with 191 rushing for 4.2 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 331 yards to the Pirates with 204 passing on 36 attempts. Kaidon Salter went 19 of 32 for 223 yards with four touchdowns and an interception. Appalachian St drops to 2-2 with their 48-14 home defeat to South Alabama. The Mountaineers put up 385 yards with 119 rushing for 4.3 yards a carry. On defense they gave up 474 yards to the Jaguars with 320 rushing for 7.4 yards per carry. Joey Aguilar hit 21 of 40 for 266 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
Liberty has played a weak schedule. Appalachian St is passing for 307 yards a game with 7.4 yards per pass attempt. On the road the Flames got past a down New Mexico St by only six points and gave up 24 points in the process. Play Appalachian St +3.5.
Georgia Southern vs. Georgia St College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Georgia Southern at Georgia St 3:30PM ET—Georgia Southern fell to 2-2 following their 52-13 road defeat at Ole Miss. The Eagles put up 195 yards with 38 rushing on 37 carries. On defense they allowed 607 yards to the Rebels with 388 passing on 33 attempts. JC French completed 20 of 28 for 109 yards with an interception. Georgia St is 2-1 with their 26-32 home win to Vanderbilt. The Panthers gained 426 yards with 157 rushing for 4.6 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 380 yards to the Commodores with 270 passing on 33 attempts. Christian Veilleux completed 26 of 41 for 269 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
Georgia St has been very poor in defending the pass by allowing 65.1% completions and 9 yards per pass attempt. They have not been efficient offensively in the passing game with 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles were competitive at Boise St where they put up 45 points in defeat. The Panthers are 5-8 to the spread at home. Play Georgia Southern +3.5.
San Diego St vs. Central Michigan College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
San Diego St at Central Michigan 3:30PM ET—San Diego St fell to 1-2 following their 31-10 road defeat at California. The Aztecs gained only 276 yards with 110 rushing for 3.1 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 473 yards to the Golden Bears with 275 yards rushing for 6.5 yards a carry. Danny O’Neil has a knee injury and is questionable. Javance Tupou’ata-Johnson started against Cal and went 13 of 29 for 156 yards with a touchdown and interception. Central Michigan improved to 2-2 with their 37-34 home win to Ball St. The Chippewas put up 527 yards with 335 rushing for 10.1 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 431 yards to the Cardinals with 285 passing on 40 attempts. Joe Labas went 14 of 20 for 185 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
The quarterback situation for the Aztecs is a concern. San Diego St runs for only 3.1 yards a carry and getting inaccurate play at quarterback along with only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. San Diego St defense is allowing 6.5 yards per run along with 72.4% completions. Central Michigan offense is running for 5.9 yards a carry and has an efficient passing game with 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Play Central Michigan -3.
Louisiana vs. Wake Forest College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Louisiana at Wake Forest 3:30PM ET—Louisiana fell to 2-1 following their 41-33 home defeat to Tulane. The Ragin Cajuns gained 421 yards with 183 rushing for 6.8 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 355 yards to the Green Wave with 272 rushing for 5.8 yards per carry. Ben Wooldridge completed 19 of 34 for 238 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Wake Forest is drops to 1-2 following their 40-6 home defeat to Ole Miss. The Demon Deacons posted 311 yards with 46 rushing for 1.4 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 649 yards to the Rebels with 377 passing yards on 34 attempts. Hank Bachmeier went 22 of 39 for 239 yards.
The Pick:
Louisiana has defended well holding opponents to 4.6 yards per carry and only 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Wake Forest has struggled running the football with 3.8 yards a carry. They hold opponents to 4.6 yards per rush. The Demon Deacons are 5-2 to the under at home in the non-conference. Play Louisiana and Wake Forest under 60.5.
Akron vs. Ohio College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
Akron at Ohio 3:30PM ET—Akron is 1-3 following their 50-7 road defeat at South Carolina. The Zips gained only 154 yards with 37 rushing for 1.8 yards per run. On defense they allowed 549 yards to the Gamecocks with 276 passing on 27 attempts. Ben Finley hit 14 of 27 for 110 yards with a touchdown and interceptions. Ohio moves to 2-2 with their 41-6 road defeat at Kentucky. The Bobcats posted 223 yards with 113 rushing for 3.5 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 488 yards to the Wildcats with 282 passing on 27 attempts. Paker Navarro is questionable with a wrist injury. Nick Poulos hit 8 of 19 for 110 yards and a pick.
The Pick:
The Zips offense is very poor as they run for 2.6 yards a carry and average only 5.6 yards per pass attempt. On defense they allow 5.1 yards a carry on the ground along with 8 yards per pass attempt. Ohio is getting better production both ends of the field. Defensively they hold teams to 3.1 yards per run and 5.4 yards per pass attempt. They are getting accurate and efficient quarterback play. Play Ohio -12.
Massachusetts vs. Miami Ohio College Football Pick Prediction 9/28/2024
UMASS at Miami Ohio 3:30PM ET—UMASS is 1-3 following their 35-31 home win to Central Connecticut St, an FCS school. Two weeks ago it was a 34-3 road defeat at Buffalo. The Huskies gained 193 yards with 72 rushing for nearly two yards per run. ON defense they allowed 314 yards to the Bulls with 184 passing on 22 attempts. Taisun Phommanchanh completed 20 of 30 for 287 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Miami Ohio fell to 0-3 with their 28-3 road defeat to Notre Dame. The Redhawks gained 229 yards with 110 rushing for four yards per run. On defense they allowed 428 yards to the Fighting Irish with 270 rushing for 7.5 yards per rush. Brett Gabbert hit 14 of 35 for 119 yards and two interceptions.
The Pick:
Miami is a rebuilding team except in the quarterback position. They were hit hard by the transfer portal. The Redhawks are rushing for only 2.5 yards a carry and pass for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Miami Ohio is giving up 6.4 yards per rush. The Minuteman defense holds opponents to 3.6 yards a carry and allowing only 51% completion rate. Play UMASS +18.