As the regular season begins to wind down, the Pittsburgh Pirates (72-83) are set to entertain arch-rivals Cincinnati Reds (76-80) in what will be one of the exciting matches. While it is the kind of game that can have ramifications for the team’s postseason aspirations, particularly the Reds, it is set in the Great American Ball Park. This particular premium daily prediction and picks analysis executive is focused on what one will see in this captivating national league contest.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds 9/22/24 Game Info and Odds |
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| When: | Sunday, September 22, 2024, at 1:10 PM ET |
| Where: | Great American Ball Park |
| Watch: | SportsNet PT, ESPN, MLB.TV |
| Pirates odds: | -128 Moneyline |
| Reds odds: | +108 Moneyline |
| Total Line: | 7.5 |
Pittsburgh Pirates (72-83) vs. Cincinnati Reds (76-80)
The Pittsburgh Pirates, despite their less-than-ideal season record, arrive in Cincinnati with hopes of thwarting the Reds’ late-season surge. Over their last five games, the Pirates have shown inconsistencies; notably, they secured a narrow 3-2 victory against St. Louis but fell in their most recent games against the Reds and Cardinals, with scores reflecting their struggle (1-7, 3-8, 5-10, 1-3). This pattern highlights a team struggling to find its rhythm as the season nears its end.
| Pittsburgh Pirates Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 21, 2024 | CIN | 1-7 | Lose |
| Sep 20, 2024 | CIN | 3-8 | Lose |
| Sep 19, 2024 | STL | 3-2 | Win |
| Sep 18, 2024 | STL | 5-10 | Lose |
| Sep 17, 2024 | STL | 1-3 | Lose |
In contrast, the Cincinnati Reds have leveraged their home advantage significantly, as evidenced by their recent 7-1 and 8-3 victories over Pittsburgh. This momentum is part of a broader pattern where the Reds have maintained a strong home record (7-2 SU in their last 9 games at home). Their performance, even in the wake of heavy losses to Atlanta (3-15, 1-7), shows a resilient team ready to capitalize on every home game advantage.
| Cincinnati Reds Last 5 Games | |||
| Date | Opponent | Score | SU |
| Sep 21, 2024 | PIT | 7-1 | Win |
| Sep 20, 2024 | PIT | 8-3 | Win |
| Sep 19, 2024 | ATL | 3-15 | Lose |
| Sep 18, 2024 | ATL | 1-7 | Lose |
| Sep 17, 2024 | ATL | 6-5 | Win |
Paul Skenes (10-3, 2.07 ERA) vs. Hunter Greene (9-4, 2.83 ERA)
Paul Skenes slugs it out for the Pittsburgh side having a rich record of 10-3 and enjoying a low 2.07 ERA this season. Skenes’ season is well captured by his ability to restrict hits, runs and WHIP, which stands at 0.98 in 126 innings. Skenes has been, without a doubt, very efficient in getting the opposing players via strikes with 158 K while preserving very few walks, even at 32, making any batting lineup a great threat to any pitcher.
On the other hand, Hunter Greene has achieved respectable figures for the Cincinnati side with a record of 9-4 and era of 2.83. For 143.1 innings pitched, Greene has been equally effective in a low 1.02 WHIP with 162 strikeouts. Even though he had a relatively elevated walk rate of 53, his command and the strikeouts he could land on the mound were a great asset for the Reds, especially while playing at home.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates -128, Total Odds: 7.5
The betting lines however, are slightly leaning towards the Pirates owing to Skenes being very effective on the hill. Given how the money line is set at 7.5, it also hints what the two contests expecting would be even lesser scores courtesy of the UNDER recent patterns from league opponents for both teams.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends
The Pirates have been unable to get on the rise, clearly seen in their poor away form as well as their poor performance against divisional and league counterparts. Although their recent trend towards UNDER in totals (6 of last 8 games) indicates the trend toward the hunting game, relating it to Skenes makes it clear that it’s going to be defensive.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Reds however, seem to have weathered the storm, especially at home. This is, however different for them defensively as they have gone OVER in 6 of their last 8 games compared to the league & divisional games, as they return to an UNDER trend.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds 9/22/24 Betting Picks
Taking the latest results and past results at Great American Ball Park. The Reds look set to make the most of their home advantage, and the Pirates have not tasted much stability in recent matches. Here, although Pittsburgh sends one of its strong starters on the mound, this will not be the case as Cincinnati has better team chemistry and others are tailoring on better performance of late.
Bets, on the other hand, are the more conservative options that would probably consider placing a wager on covering the Cincinnati spread (+1.5). Since both sides have been backing strong UNDER trends vs league opposition, total remains low, and under 7.5 as well is a good bet. While gambling, do not forget to use these top MLB free picks.