Free MLB Picks For Today, Sunday 9/22/2024
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Pirates at Reds—Paul Skenes to start for Pittsburgh. Skenes in 21 starts on the year carries an ERA of 2.07 with WHIP of 0.98. The rookie righthander has an elite 32.2% K rate with 6.5% walks. Ground balls served at 51.2% with 0.71 home runs per nine innings. Hunter Greene to start for Cincinnati. Greene has 24 starts with an ERA of 2.83 with WHIP of 1.02. The righty is fanning 27.8% with 9.1% walks. Grounders are 34.7% with 0.69 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Skenes has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. Greene returns after a shoulder injury but will be on a pitch count. The Reds bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 7.54. The team mark behind Skenes is 10-2 when lined between -100 and -150 with a +7.3-unit return. The team record behind Greene at home when an underdog of +100 or higher is 4-10 with a -5-unit loss. Play Pittsburgh -113.
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Tigers at Orioles—Brant Hurter to start for Detroit. Hurter appeared in eight games dealing with an ERA of 2.56 with WHIP of 0.83. The lefthander fans 25% with 3.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 56.7% with 0.70 home runs per nine innings. Albert Suarez to start for Baltimore. Suarez in 30 appearances has an ERA of 3.60 with WHIP of 1.32. The righthander strikes out 18.8% with 7.9% walks. Ground balls served at 35.1% with 0.88 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Mize in his past four starts has an ERA of 4.87 with WHIP of 1.43 since returning to the rotation. Suarez in his past three starts allowed 11 earned runs with four homers in 13 2/3rd innings. The Tigers bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 3.14 with the Orioles at 5.34. Baltimore in their past seven games is hitting .237. Detroit is 23-14 in their past 37 on the road with a +13.3 unit return. Play Detroit +114.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Braves at Marlins—Grant Holmes to start for Atlanta. Holmes has 23 appearances this year delivering an ERA of 3.84 with WHIP of 1.28. The righthander strikes out 22.7% with 5.3% walks. Ground balls come in at 45.1% with 0.77 home runs per nine innings. Darren McCaughan will start for Miami. McCaughan in 9 appearances has an ERA of 7.64 with WHIP of 1.82. The righty fans 11.9% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 32.5% with 2.18 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Holmes has pitched two innings or lower in eight of his past nine starts. McCaughan in his past four starts allowed 15 runs with three homers in 17 1/3rd innings. Both bullpens in their past ten games have ERA’s near six. Atlanta in their past seven games is batting .278. Miami is 42-14 to the over when a home underdog of +100 or higher. Play Atlanta and Miami over 8.5.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Blue Jays at Rays—Chris Bassitt to start for Toronto. Bassitt in 30 starts in 2024 provides an ERA of 4.16 with WHIP of 1.43. The veteran strikes out 22.6% with 8.6% walks. Grounders served at 40.6% with 0.97 home runs per nine innings. Shane Baz is the starter for Tampa Bay. Baz has 12 starts with an ERA of 3.21 with WHIP of 1.11. The righthander fans 20.6% with 9.2% walks. Ground balls sit at 39.5% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.20 does imply a rise in ERA should form hold.
The Pick:
Bassitt in his past four starts allowed 17 runs in 27 2/3rd innings. Baz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The Rays bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 2.81. The team mark behind Bassitt is 0-5 on the road when lined between +125 and -125 with a -5 unit loss. Toronto has lost seven of nine on the road. Play Tampa Bay -135.
San Francisco Giants vs. KC Royals MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Giants at Royals—Blake Snell to start for San Francisco. Snell in 19 starts on the year deals with an ERA of 3.31 with WHIP of 1.08. The lefthander has an elite 34.3% K rate with 10.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 42.8% with 0.55 home runs per nine innings. Seth Lugo to start for KC. Lugo has 31 starts with an ERA of 3.05 with WHIP of 1.11. The righthander fans 21.5% with 5.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 44.3% with 0.73 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Snell has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts. Lugo in his past six starts has an ERA of 5.55 with WHIP of 1.49 hitting to high contact. The Giants bullpen in good form the past ten games. In their past seven games the Royals are hitting .216. The team mark behind Snell is 5-1 in his past six road games. KC is 2-6 behind Lugo at home when lined between -100 and -150 with a -5.5-unit loss. Play San Francisco -105.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Diamondbacks at Brewers—Jordan Montgomery to start for Arizona. Montgomery appeared in 24 games on the year delivering an ERA of 6.23 with WHIP of 1.64. The lefthander strikes out 15.1% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls dished at 42.4% with 1.12 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.58 does suggest a drop in ERA based on form. Frankie Montas will start for Milwaukee. Montas in 28 starts has an ERA of 4.50 with WHIP of 1.34. The veteran fans 22.2% with 9.8% walks. Grounders are 41.6% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Montgomery in his past nine starts has an ERA of 5.68 with WHIP of 1.55. Montas in his past four starts has an ERA of 4.25 with WHIP of 1.15 with high strikeouts. But Arizona in their past seven games is hitting .270 with the Brewers at .205. The team mark behind Montas at home is 3-9 with a -8.6-unit loss. Play Arizona +106.
LA Angels vs. Houston Astros MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Angels at Astros—Griffin Canning to start for LA. Canning appeared in 30 games providing an ERA of 5.16 with WHIP of 1.39. The righthander strikes out 17.6% with 8.8% walks. Grounders are 40.6% with 1.55 home runs per nine innings. Spencer Arrighetti to start for Houston. Arrighetti in 27 starts has an ERA of 4.68 with WHIP of 1.43. The rookie righty has a K mark of 26.9% with 10.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 35.1% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Canning in his past four road starts allowed 17 runs with five homers in 23 2/3rd innings. Arrighetti has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. In their past seven games the Astros are hitting .266. Houston has won eight of nine against the Angels with eight of those wins by two or greater runs. The team record behind Canning on the road is 1-11. Play Houston on run line -1.5 runs at -130.
Cleveland Guardians vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Guardians at Cardinals—Gavin Williams to start for Cleveland. Williams in 15 starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 5.12 with WHIP of 1.39. The righthander strikes out 24.5% with 9.7% walks. Ground ball rate of 39.5% with 0.90 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.70 does suggest a drop in ERA based on form. Andre Pallante will start for St Louis. Pallante appeared in 27 games with an ERA of 3.87 with WHIP of 1.35. The righty fans 18.5% with 9.9% walks. Ground balls dealt at 61.9% with 0.66 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Williams in his past seven starts has an ERA of 6.10 with WHIP of 1.43 struggling with control. Pallante in his past four home starts has an ERA of 2.55 with WHIP of 1.30. The Cardinals bullpen is in good form. The team is 5-2 with Pallante at home when lined between +125 and -125 with a +3.2-unit return. Play St Louis -120.
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Nationals at Cubs – Jake Irvin to start for Washington. Irvin in 31 starts on the year puts up an ERA of 4.07 with WHIP of 1.17. The righthander fans 20.5% with 6.2% walks. Ground balls served at 44% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings. Shota Imanaga to start for Chicago. Imanaga has 29 starts with an ERA of 3.03 with WHIP of 1.03. The lefthander fans 25.4% with 4.2% walks. Grounders are 36.2% with 1.46 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Irvin in his past two starts allowed two earned runs in 13 1/3rd innings. Imanaga in his past six starts has an ERA of 2.61 with WHIP of 0.87. Washington in their past seven games is hitting .221. Imanaga is 7-4 to the under when favored at home by -110 or higher. Play Washington and Chicago under 8.
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Mariners at Rangers—Bryan Woo to start for Seattle. Woo in 20 starts delivers an ERA of 2.85 with WHIP of 0.88. The righthander strikes out 20.8% with 2.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 40.7% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney appeared in 30 games with an ERA of 3.89 with WHIP of 1.21. The lefthander strikes out 23.6% with 6.2% walks. Grounders sit at 33.3% with 1.20 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Woo in his past four road starts has an ERA of 2.92 with WHIP of 0.85. Heaney in his past seven starts has an ERA of 3.60 with WHIP of 1.17. Seattle has won nine of ten against Texas. In their past seven games the Mariners are batting .293 to the Rangers .212. Play Seattle -117.
NY Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Yankees at Athletics—Luis Gil to start for NY. Gil has 27 starts on the campaign delivering an ERA of 3.14 with WHIP of 1.18. The righthander strikes out 27.3% with 12.4% walks. Ground balls sit at 37.1% with 0.90 home runs per nine innings. Joey Estes to start for Oakland. Estes appeared in 23 games with an ERA of 4.78 with WHIP of 1.20. The righty is fanning 17.8% with 4.8% walks. Grounders are 23.9% with 1.44 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Gil in his past three starts allowed two earned runs in 16 innings of work. Estes in his past three starts allowed 13 runs with three homers and only six strikeouts in 11 2/3rd innings. The NY bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 1.19. Oakland is batting .224 in their past seven games. The Yankees are 36-23 to the run line on the road against right-handed starters with a +12.2unit return. Play NY on run line -1.5 runs at -105.
Colorado Rockies vs. LA Dodgers MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Rockies at Dodgers—Antonio Senzatela to start for Colorado. Senzatela in his season debut allowed two earned runs with two strikeouts in three innings at home to Arizona. He was injured in early 2023 and needed Tommy John surgery. The righthander has a career ERA of 4.88 with WHIP of 1.45 striking out 453 batters in 682 2/3rd innings. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to start for LA. Yamamoto has sixteen starts on the year with an ERA of 2.63 and WHIP of 1.07. The righthander fans 28.5% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls served at 48.8% with 0.66 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Yamamoto in his past five starts allowed one earned run in 23 innings. Colorado bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 2.98. But they are batting .213 in their past seven games. The Rockies are 18-12 to the under on the road when lined at +200 or greater. Play LA and Colorado under 8.5.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. NY Mets MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Phillies at Mets—Zack Wheeler to start for Philadelphia. Wheeler in 30 starts this season posts an ERA of 2.56 with WHIP of 0.95. The veteran strikes out 27.9% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 42.8% with 0.87 home runs per nine innings. Tylor Megill to start for NY. Megill in 14 appearances has an ERA of 4.08 with a WHIP of 1.26. The righthander fans 26.3% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls dished at 39.3% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts. Megill in his return to the rotation has an ERA of 1.93 with WHIP of 0.99 in five starts. Wheeler is 10-2 to the under when lined on the road between at -125 or higher. NY is 10-7 to the under when facing an NL starter with an ERA of 3.20 or lower. Play Philadelphia and NY under 7.
Game 2 Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Pick Prediction 9/22/2024
Twins at Red Sox Game 2—Zebby Matthews to start for Minnesota. Matthews has seven starts in the season carrying an ERA of 6.30 with WHIP of 1.60. The rookie righthander strikes out 22.9% with 4.3% walks. Grounders sit at 41% with 2.70 home runs per nine innings. Kutter Crawford to start for Boston. Crawford in 31 starts has an ERA of 4.19 with WHIP of 1.10. The righty is fanning 23% with 6.7% walks. Grounders are 33.4% with 1.73 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Matthews in his past three starts allowed seven earned runs with four homers in 13 innings. Crawford in his past five home starts has an ERA of 5.14 with WHIP of 1.18 pitching to contact. The team mark behind Crawford is 4-12 at home with a -10.3-unit loss. The team mark behind Boston is 18-26 at home against a winning team with a -11.4-unit loss. They are batting .193 in their past seven games. Play Minnesota -125 in Game 2.