Free MLB Picks For Today, Friday 9/20/2024
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Nationals at Cubs—Trevor Williams to start for Washington. Williams in 11 starts on the year deals with an ERA of 2.22 with WHIP of 1.08. The righthander fans 21% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 46% with limited home run damage. Jameson Taillon to start for Chicago. Taillon has 26 starts with an ERA of 3.54 with WHIP of 1.16. The veteran fans 19% with 4.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 40.4% with 1.24 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Williams makes his first start since May 30th after a flexor strain. Taillon in his past three starts allowed three earned runs and fifteen strikeouts in 19 innings. Both bullpens in poor form in their past ten games. Chicago in their past ten games is hitting .303 and the Nationals at .175. Washington is 13-26 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 with a -6.5-unit loss. Play Chicago -160.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Pirates at Reds—Mitch Keller to start for Pittsburgh. Keller has 29 starts on the season dealing with an ERA of 3.87 with WHIP of 1.25. The righthander strikes out 21.8% with 5.9% walks. Grounders are 40.1% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. Nick Martinez to start for Cincinnati. Martinez appeared in 40 games with an ERA of 3.37 with WHIP of 1.08. The righthander strikes out 19.9% with 3.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 37.2% with 0.91 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Keller in his past five starts has an ERA of 3.49 with WHIP of 1.24. Martinez has allowed one earned or fewer in four of five starts. The Reds bullpen in their past five games has an ERA of 6.75. The team is 8-3 behind Keller as a road underdog of +100 or greater. Cincinnati is 20-26 when favored at home by -100 or higher with a -15-unit loss. Play Pittsburgh +110.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Blue Jays at Rays—Jose Berrios to start for Toronto. Berrios in 30 starts on the year produces an ERA of 3.44 with WHIP of 1.12. The veteran fans 19.2% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls dealt at 43.6% with 1.42 home runs per nine innings. Tyler Alexander will start for Tampa Bay. Alexander appeared in 21 games with an ERA of 5.58 with WHIP of 1.29. The lefthander strikes out 18.6% with 5.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 31.4% with 2.11 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Berrios has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts. The Blue Jays in their past seven games are hitting .262. The Rays bat .223 against right-handed starters. The team mark behind Berrios is 7-3 in night games with a +6.1-unit return. Alexander 2-8 at home against the Division team mark. Play Toronto -108.
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Tigers at Orioles—Brant Hurter will start for Detroit. Hurter appeared in eight games in 2024 posting an ERA of 2.56 with WHIP of 0.83. The lefthander strikes out 25% with 3.4% walks. Ground balls sit at 56.7% with 0.70 home runs per nine innings. Corbin Burnes will start for Baltimore. Burnes has 30 starts with an ERA of 3.06 with WHIP of 1.12. The veteran fans 22.1% with 5.9% walks. Ground balls are 48.1% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Hurter has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. Burnes has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. The Tigers bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 2.11 with the Orioles at 6.67. Baltimore in their past seven games is hitting .199. The Tigers are 22-13 in their past 35 on the road with a +13.1-unit return. Play Detroit +164.
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Twins at Red Sox—David Festa to start for Minnesota. Festa appeared in 12 games on the year delivering an ERA of 5.07 with WHIP of 1.27. The righthander strikes out 28.1% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 37.4% with 1.47 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.04 does suggest a drop in ERA based on form. Richard Fitts to start for Boston. Fitts has two starts allowing no runs with four strikeouts in 10 2/3rd innings. A sixth-round pick in 2021 who posted an ERA of 4.17 with WHIP of 1.27 in 24 appearances in Triple A striking out 111 batters in 116 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Festa has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his past four starts. Both bullpens have been struggling in their past ten games. The Red Sox are 18-25 at home against winning teams with a -10.4-unit loss. Play Minnesota -125.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. NY Mets MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Phillies at Mets—Cristopher Sanchez to start for Philadelphia. Sanchez in 29 starts on the year deals with an ERA of 3.24 with WHIP of 1.23. The lefthander fans 20% with 5.4% walks. Ground balls served at 57.9% with limited home run damage. David Peterson to start for NY. Peterson has 19 starts with an ERA of 2.85 with WHIP of 1.31. The lefthander strikes out 19.1% with 9.2% walks. Grounders are 51.4% with 0.65 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.85 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
Sanchez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his past six starts. Peterson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past nine starts. The Phillies bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 2.88 with the Mets at 4.81. The team record behind Sanchez on the road is 4-9 with a -8.1-unit loss. The team mark behind Peterson in home night games is 5-0. The team mark is 11-18 in their past 29 when Philadelphia faces a winning team with a +8.7-unit loss. Play NY -102.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Braves at Marlins—Charlie Morton will start for Atlanta. Morton in 28 starts this year puts up an ERA of 4.01 with WHIP of 1.30. The veteran strikes out 24.5% with 9% walks. Ground ball rate of 46.2% with 1.22 home runs per nine innings. Valente Bellozo to start for Miami. Bellozo has 11 starts with an ERA of 3.70 with WHIP of 1.29. The righthander fans 15.6% with 7.6% walks. Grounders sit at 29.6% with 1.85 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.58 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
Morton has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. Bellozo in his past five starts allowed 18 runs with nine homers in 25 1/3rd innings. Marlin’s bullpen was hammered against the Dodgers. The team record behind Morton on the run line when favored by -125 or higher is 4-1 with a +3.2 unit return. Play Atlanta on run line -1.5 runs at -118.
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Mariners at Rangers—Emerson Hancock to start for Seattle. Hancock has ten starts on the campaign delivers an ERA of 4.83 with WHIP of 1.33. The righthander strikes out 14.9% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 33.9% with 1.61 home runs per nine innings. Jacob deGrom will start for Texas. deGrom in his 2024 debut allowed no runs with four strikeouts in 3 2/3rd innings at Seattle. Sidelined last year due to injury he has started no greater than fifteen games since the 2022 season. In his past 45 starts the righthander carries an ERA of 2.09 with WHIP of 0.74 striking out 401 batters in 258 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Kirby in his past four road starts has allowed 20 runs with seven homers in 21 1/3rd innings. Seattle bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 2.49 with the Rangers at 5.95. The team record behind Kirby as a road underdog of +100 or higher is 4-11 with a -6.5-unit loss. The Mariners are 21-33 on the road against right-handed starters with a -16.4-unit loss. Play Texas -118.
San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Giants at Royals—Mason Black to start for San Francisco. Black in seven appearances in 2024 delivers an ERA of 7.07 with WHIP of 1.64. The rookie righthander fans 18.5% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls dished at 29.8% with 2.25 home runs per nine innings. Michael Wacha to start for KC. Wacha has 27 starts with an ERA of 3.29 and WHIP of 1.19. The veteran strikes out 21.6% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 38.2% with 0.92 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Black since his return to the rotation has an ERA of 5.27 with WHIP of 1.32 in three starts. Wacha has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past nine starts. The Giants bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 4.10. The team record behind Wacha when favored by -110 or higher at home is 5-1 with a +3.8-unit return. Play KC -158.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Diamondbacks at Brewers—Zac Gallen to start for Arizona. Gallen in 26 starts in 2024 puts up an ERA of 3.61 with WHIP of 1.28. The righthander fans 24.3% with 8.9% walks. Ground balls served at 45.9% with 0.66 home runs per nine innings. DL Hall is the starter for Milwaukee. Hall appeared in 9 games with an ERA of 4.91 with WHIP of 1.64. The lefthander strikes out 22.6% with 11.9% walks. Grounders are 41.2% with 1.23 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Gallen in his past three starts allowed three earned runs with 22 strikeouts in 16 innings. Rea in his past seven starts has an ERA of 6.82 with WHIP of 1.37 getting crushed by the home run. The team mark behind Galle in his past six road starters is 5-1 with a +4 unit return. The Diamondbacks are 33-21 on the road against right handers with a +16.2-unit return. Play Arizona -123.
LA Angels vs. Houston Astros MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Angels at Astros—Tyler Anderson will start for LA. Anderson in 29 starts on the campaign delivers an ERA of 3.60 with WHIP of 1.25. The lefthander strikes out 18.8% with 9.7% walks. Ground balls come in at 38.2% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings. Justin Verlander to start for Houston. Verlander in 15 starts has an ERA of 5.20 with WHIP of 1.37. The veteran fans 18.7% with 7.5% walks. Grounders are 27.3% with 1.58 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Anderson in his past six starts has an ERA of 6.46 with WHIP of 1.73. Verlander in his past seven starts has an ERA of 7.99 with WHIP of 1.71. The Angels bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 1.02 with the Astros at 4.11. The team record behind Anderson as a road underdog of +150 or higher is 4-1 with a +6.4 unit return. The team is 1-4 in Verlander’s five home starts with a -5.1-unit loss. Play LA +222.
Cleveland Guardians vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Guardians at Cardinals—Ben Lively to start for Cleveland. Lively has 27 starts in the year carrying an ERA of 3.87 with WHIP of 1.23. The righthander fans 19% with 7.5% walks. Grounders dealt at 41.6% with 1.46 home runs per nine innings. Kyle Gibson to start for St Louis. Gibson has 28 starts this season providing an ERA of 4.11 with WHIP of 1.33. The veteran fans 21.3% with 9.2% walks. Grounders sit at 45.2% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Lively has allowed no earned runs in his past two outings, working seven innings. Gibson in his past six starts has an ERA of 4.59 with WHIP of 1.34. The team mark behind Gibson is 6-8 at home. The Cardinals are 8-11 in their past 19 at home against a winning team with a -3.8-unit return. The Guardians bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 0.79. Play Cleveland +102.
NY Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Yankees at Athletics—Gerrit Cole to start for NY. Cole in 15 starts on the year puts up an ERA of 3.97 with WHIP of 1.27. The veteran strikes out 25.7% with 8% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.2% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings. JT Ginn is the starter for Oakland. Ginn appeared in six games with an ERA of 4.94 with WHIP of 1.39. The rookie righthander fans 22.5% with 5.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 43.7% with 1.52 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Cole in his past 11 starts has an ERA of 3.19 with WHIP of 1.18. Ginn in his past four starts has an ERA of 5.40 with WHIP of 1.45. The NY bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 1.56 with the Athletics at 4.70. NY 34-23 to the run line against right-handed starters on the road with a +10.2-unit return. Play NY on run line -1.5 runs at -120.
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
White Sox at Padres—Garrett Crochet to start for Chicago. Crochet in 30 starts on the year delivers an ERA of 3.78 with WHIP of 1.09. The lefthander has an elite 34.5% K rate with 5.7% walks. Ground balls served at 45.2% with 1.17 home runs per nine innings. Joe Musgrove to start for San Diego. Musgrove has 17 starts with an ERA of 4.23 and WHIP of 1.23. The righthander strikes out 23.8% with 6.1% walks. Ground balls served at 41% with 1.34 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Crochet in his past seven starts has an ERA of 6.46 with WHIP of 1.48. Musgrove since returning to the rotation has an ERA of 2.37 and WHIP of 0.89. The Padres bullpen in their past ten games is 2.51. Chicago is 12-24 on the road to the run line when an underdog of +200 or higher with a -11.6-unit loss. Play San Diego on run line -1.5 runs at -113.
Colorado Rockies vs. LA Dodgers MLB Pick Prediction 9/20/2024
Rockies at Dodgers—Kyle Freeland to start for Colorado. Freeland in 19 starts has an ERA of 4.89 with WHIP of 1.38. The lefthander strikes out 17.9% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 40.9% with 1.40 home runs per nine innings. Justin Wrobleski to start for LA. Wrobleski appeared in seven games with an ERA of 6.40 with WHIP of 1.42. The lefthander fans 15.7% with 10% walks. Ground balls served at 29.4% with 2.51 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Freeland in his past nine starts has an ERA of 3.53 with WHIP of 1.16. Wrobleski in his past three appearances allowed 14 earned runs with five homers and seven walks in 12 1/3rd innings. The Rockies bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 3.98. They won four of nine in September with a +4.3 unit return. Tough spot for LA coming home from Miami with no rest. Play Colorado +194.