Free College Football Picks Week 4 Part 3-9/21/2024
East Carolina vs. Liberty College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
East Carolina at Liberty 6PM ET—East Carolina fell to 2-1 following their 21-19 home defeat to Appalachian St. The Pirates gained 314 yards with 98 rushing for 3.3 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 505 yards to the Mountaineers with 424 passing on 47 attempts. Jake Garcia hit 18 of 28 for 226 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Liberty improved to 3-0 following their 28-10 home win to UTEP. The Flames produced 416 yards with 179 rushing for 4.2 yards per run. On defense they allowed 335 yards to the Miners with 244 passing on 43 attempts. Kaidon Salter completed 15 of 19 for 228 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
The Pirates are getting efficient play at the quarterback position with 65.7% completions and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Defensively they hold opponents to 1.8 yards a carry and 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Liberty’s numbers are great on both sides but have played a weak schedule. The concern is the 24 points they allowed at New Mexico St and the 24 at home to FCS Campbell. The Flames are 5-9 to the spread as a home favorite. Play East Carolina +6.
Miami vs. USF College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Miami at USF 7PM ET—Miami is 3-0 following their 62-0 home win to Ball St. The Hurricanes gained 750 yards with 243 rushing for 7.8 yards per run. On defense they held the Cardinals to 115 yards with six rushing yards on 20 carries. Cam Ward hit 19 of 28 for 346 yards with five touchdowns. USF is 2-1 following their 49-24 road win at Southern Miss. The Bulls put up 562 yards with 369 rushing for 7.2 yards per run. On defense they allowed 487 yards to the Golden Eagles with 397 passing on 33 attempts. Byrum Brown hit 19 of 29 for 193 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Miami defense has played well holding opponents to 2.7 yards per run and only 4.3 yards per pass attempt. USF is limiting foes to 3 yards a carry and a 57% completion rate. They defended the Crimson Tide well for four quarters in a game that landed under. Play Miami and USF under 65.
California vs. Florida St College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Cal at Florida St 7PM ET—California is 3-0 following their 31-10 home win to San Diego St. The Golden Bears gained 473 yards with 275 rushing for 11.3 yards a carry. On defense they held the Aztecs to 276 yards with 166 passing on 30 attempts. Fernando Mendoza completed 21 of 29 for 198 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Florida St fell to 0-3 after their 20-12 home defeat to Memphis. The Seminoles 238 yards with 37 rushing for under two yards per rush. On defense they allowed 338 yards with 272 passing on 39 attempts. DJ Uiagalelei went 16 of 30 for 201 yards and an interception.
The Pick:
Cal is getting accurate quarterback play. The defense has been outstanding by holding foes to 3.5 yards per run and only 49.5% completions allowed with 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Florida St offense is the issue with as they run for only 1.5 yards per run and getting inaccurate play at quarterback. The Seminoles allow 64.8% completions with 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Cal has a road win at Auburn. Play California +2.5.
Northwestern vs. Washington College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Northwestern at Washington 7PM ET—Northwestern is 2-1 following their 31-7 home win to FCS Eastern Illinois. The previous week they dropped a 26-20 home overtime defeat to Duke. The Wildcats in defeat gained 288 yards with 132 rushing for 3.5 yards per run. On defense they allowed 343 yards to the Blue Devils with 250 passing on 40 attempts. Mike Wright has been benched. Jack Lausch took over in the FCS win last week with good numbers. He threw 11 passes the past two seasons in a backup role. Washington is 2-1 with their 24-19 home defeat to Washington St. The Huskies put up 452 yards with 126 rushing for 4.1 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 381 yards to the Cougars with 245 passing on 34 attempts. Will Rogers hit 23 of 31 for 314 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
Northwestern runs for 4.7 yards a carry. The quarterback change looks like an upgrade. The Huskies are a good offensive team that runs for 5.5 yards per rush. Passing the Huskies complete with 9.6 yards per pass attempt and 307 yards per game. Play Northwestern and Washington over 42.5.
Wyoming vs. North Texas College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Wyoming at North Texas 7PM ET—Wyoming 0-3 after their 34-14 home defeat to BYU. The Cowboys produced 217 yards with 77 rushing for 2.5 yards per run. On defense the Cowboys allowed 558 yards to the Cougars with 318 passing on 39 attempts. Evan Svoboda went 14 of 32 for 140 yards and an interception. North Texas drops to 2-1 after their 66-21 road defeat to Texas Tech. The Mean Green put up 353 yards with 135 rushing for four yards per run. On defense they allowed 586 yards to the Red Raiders with 354 passing on 34 attempts. Chandler Morris hit 15 of 27 for 162 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Pick:
The Cowboys offensively are very poor with 1.3 yards per run average and only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. Defensively they are allowing 4.9 yards per rush and 11.7 yards per pass attempt. North Texas is a high-octane offensive team. They are running for 4.2 yards per carry and get efficient quarterback play with 329 yards per game along with 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys were blown out at Arizona St and home to BYU. They have a four-point home loss to FCS Idaho. They are 5-8 to the spread in their past thirteen on the road. Play North Texas -9.
FAU at UCONN College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
FAU at UCONN 7PM ET—FAU is 1-2 following their 39-20 home win to FIU. The Owls gained 420 yards with 259 rushing for 5 yards a carry. On defense they gave up 368 yards to the Panthers with 281 passing on 35 attempts. Cam Fancher completed 14 of 26 for 161 yards. Connecticut sits at 1-2 after their 26-21 road defeat at Duke. The Huskies gained 314 yards with 179 rushing for 4.8 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 409 yards to the Blue Devils with 267 passing on 43 attempts. Nick Evers 15 of 29 for 135 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
FAU pass defense limits opponents to 50.8% completions on the season. UCONN is struggling with their passing game with only 45.3% completions and 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Opponents complete 69% of their passes on the Huskies with 8.1 yards per pass attempt. FAU held Michigan St to 16 points in the opener. FAU is 4-2 as a road underdog. Play FAU +2.5.
Tulsa vs. Louisiana Tech College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Tulsa at Louisiana Tech 7PM ET—Tulsa is 1-2 following their 45-10 home win to Oklahoma St. The Golden Hurricane gained 352 yards with 116 rushing for 3.5 yards per run. On defense they allowed 560 yards to the Cowboys with 431 yards passing on 39 attempts. Kirk Francis hit 14 of 31 for 153 yards and an interception. Louisiana Tech is 1-1 with their 30-20 road defeat at NC State. The Bulldogs gained 314 yards with 33 rushing for under two yards per rush. On defense they allowed 361 yards to the Wolfpack with 151 rushing for 4.2 yards per run. Jack Turner hit 19 of 36 for 281 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
Tulsa has put up strong offensive numbers this year with 5.7 yards per rush and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. They defend the run well. The Bulldogs struggled running the football and getting accurate play at quarterback. The Golden Hurricane is 7-2 to the spread as a road underdog. Louisiana Tech is 0-5 to the spread facing offenses that average 31 or greater points per game. Play Tulsa +3.
New Mexico St vs. Sam Houston St College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
New Mexico St at Sam Houston St 7PM ET—New Mexico St fell to 1-2 following their 48-0 road defeat to Fresno St. The Aggies gained only 138 yards with 77 rushing for under three yards per run. On defense they allowed 525 yards to the Bulldogs with 281 rushing for 6.5 yards per carry. Parker Awad hit 6 of 15 passes for 48 yards and an interception. Sam Houston improved to 2-1 after their 31-13 home win to Hawaii. The Bearkats put up 422 yards with 257 rushing for 5.5 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 308 yards to the Warriors with 56 rushing for under three yards a carry. Hunter Watson completed 15 of 23 for 165 yards with three touchdowns and a pick.
The Pick:
New Mexico St’s offense is abysmal. They run for 3.3 yards a carry. Quarterback play produces 36.5% completions for 3.8 yards per pass attempt. On defense they allow 5.7 yards per run with 8 yards per pass attempt. The Bearkats rush for 4.1 yards per carry and get efficient quarterback play. They do hold opposing quarterbacks to 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Play Sam Houston St -16.5.
Toledo vs. Western Kentucky College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Toledo at Western Kentucky 7PM ET—Toledo is 3-0 following their 41-17 road win at Mississippi St. The Rockets gained 454 yards with 169 rushing for 3.8 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 385 yards to the Bulldogs with 66 rushing for under three yards per run. Tucker Gleason hit 23 of 28 for 285 yards and three touchdowns. Western Kentucky is 2-1 with their 49-21 road win at Middle Tennessee St. The Hilltoppers put up 631 yards with 150 rushing for 4.4 yards per rush. On defense they allowed 514 yards to the Blue Raiders with 456 passing on 31 attempts. Caden Veltkamp hit 31 of 39 passes for 409 yards with five touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Rockets have an efficient passing game with 65% completions and 9.3 yards per pass attempt. They defend well holding opponents to 3 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. WKU is a bad defensive team. They give up 5.3 yards a carry along with 68.1% completions for 11.6 yards per pass attempt. Play Toledo -2.5.
Akron vs. South Carolina College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Akron at South Carolina 7:30PM ET—Akron 1-2 following their 31-20 home win to FCS Colgate. Two weeks ago, they dropped the 49-17 decision at Rutgers. The Zips gained 307 yards with 156 rushing for 6.1 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 515 yards to the Scarlet Knights with 285 rushing for 6.5 yards a carry. Ben Finley hit 14 of 31 for 138 yards with a touchdown and pick. South Carolina fell to 2-1 with their 36-33 home defeat to LSU. The Gamecocks put up 398 yards with 243 rushing for 5.9 yards per carry. On defense they surrendered 417 yards to the Tigers with 285 passing on 40 attempts. LaNorris Sellers went 9 of 16 for 113 yards and a pick. He did rush for 88 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Akron will be challenged physically here on the line of scrimmage. They allow 5 yards per rush and on offense run for only 2.8 yards a carry. The Gamecocks defense holds opponents to 3.4 yards per run and 5.5 yards per pass attempt. They are also a quicker team speed-wise. The Gamecocks are 6-1 to the spread at home in their September games Play South Carolina -28.
Iowa vs. Minnesota College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Iowa at Minnesota 7:30PM ET—Iowa improved to 2-1 following their 38-21 home win against Troy. The Hawkeyes gained 462 yards with 284 rushing for 6.3 yards per carry. On defense they held the Trojans to 253 yards with 24 rushing yards on 22 carries. Cade McNamara hit 19 of 23 for 175 yards. Minnesota sits at 2-1 with their 27-0 home win to Nevada. The Golden Gophers put up 386 yards with 195 rushing for 6.1 yards per run. Defensively they held the Wolfpack to 172 yards with 58 rushing for under two yards per run. Max Brosmer completed 16 of 26 for 191 yards with a touchdown and interception.
The Pick:
Iowa has a good running back but not a downfield passing attack with 6.3 yards per attempt. The Golden Gophers defense performs well holding opponents to 2.6 yards per run and 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota passing attack generates 68.3% completion rate and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. They are 7-0 to the spread at home in September games. Play Minnesota +2.5.
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Tennessee at Oklahoma 7:30PM ET—Tennessee is 3-0 after their 71-0 home win to Kent. The Volunteers posted 750 yards with 456 rushing for 8-3 yards per run. On defense they held the Golden Flashes to 112 yards with 54 rushing for under two yards per run. Nico Iamaleava hit 10 of 16 for 173 yards with a touchdown. Oklahoma is 3-0 following their 34-19 home victory to Tulane. The Sooners posted 349 yards with 182 rushing for 4 yards per rush. On defense Oklahoma allowed 279 yards to the Green Wave with 106 rushing for three yards per run. Jackson Arnold completed 18 of 29 for 169 yards with a touchdown and pick.
The Pick:
Tennessee has looked outstanding on both sides of the field. Other than NC State the two other opponents were weak. Oklahoma has home wins against Tulane and Houston. The Sooner’s defense allows 2.2 yards per run and 59% completion rate. Play Oklahoma +7.5.
Bowling Green vs. Texas A&M College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Bowling Green at Texas A&M—Bowling Green is 1-1 after their 34-27 road defeat at Penn St. The Falcons 375 yards with 121 rushing for 4.5 yards per run. On defense they allowed 438 yards to the Nittany Lions with 234 rushing for 6.3 yards per run. Connor Bazelak hit 25 of 39 for 254 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Texas A&M sits at 2-1 with their 33-20 road win at Florida. The Aggies posted 488 yards with 310 rushing for 5.6 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 301 yards to Florida with 52 rushing for 2.1 yards per rush. Connor Weigman was injured and missed the game. He is questionable with no timetable back. Marcel Reed completed 11 of 17 for 178 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
Texas A&M quarterback situation a concern. The Falcons offense is putting up 7.2 yards per rush and efficient with their passing game. The Aggies are completing only 54.2% completions with 6.6 yards per attempt. Play Bowling Green +22.5.
Georgia Southern vs. Ole Miss College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Georgia Southern at Ole Miss 7:45PM ET—Georgia Southern improved to 2-1 following their 42-14 home win to FCS South Carolina St. Two weeks ago, it was a 20-17 road win at Nevada. They put up 285 yards with 42 rushing for 2.2 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 498 yards to the Wolfpack with 271 passing on 35 attempts. JC French hit 17 of 23 for 211 yards and two touchdowns. Ole Miss is 3-0 following their 40-6 road win at Wake Forest. The Rebels gained 649 yards with 272 rushing for 6 yards per carry. Defensively they allowed 311 yards to the Demon Deacons with 46 rushing for under two yards per run. Jaxson Dart completed 26 of 34 for 377 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
The Eagles defense is poor as they surrender 6.9 yards per run along with 252 yards passing for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. They do move the ball effectively through the air. Ole Miss rushed for 6.3 yards a carry and completed 74.5% of their throws for 11.8 yards per pass attempt. Play Georgia Southern and Ole Miss over 67.
Michigan St vs. Boston College College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Michigan St at Boston College 8PM ET—Michigan St is 3-0 following their 40-0 home win to FCS Prairie View. Two weeks ago, they got past Maryland on the road 27-24. The Spartans 474 yards with 121 rushing for nearly four yards per carry. On defense they allowed 349 yards to the Terrapins with 86 rushing for under three yards a carry. Aidan Chiles hit 12 of 19 for 173 yards with a touchdown. Boston College fell to 2-1 with their 27-21 road win at Missouri. The Eagles put up 298 yards with 49 rushing for under two yards per carry. On defense they allowed 340 yards to the Tigers with 264 passing on 30 attempts. Thomas Castellanos completed 16 of 28 for 249 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
The Pick:
Michigan St has shown a passing game with 61.5% completion rate with 9.3 yards per pass attempt. They run for 4.3 yards per carry. But on defense the Spartans are allowing 76.5% completion rate with 7.4 yards per pass attempt. BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos is a run threat that is running an efficient passing game as well. BC is 10-3 to the over in their past 13 at home. Play Michigan St and Boston College over 45.
Baylor vs. Colorado College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Baylor at Colorado 8PM ET—Baylor improved to 2-1 following their 31-3 home win to Air Force. The Bears gained 378 yards with 230 rushing for six yards a carry. On defense they held the Falcons to 218 yards with 193 rushing for 3.4 yards per run. Dequan Finn missed the Air Force game after being ineffective against Utah. Sawyer Robertson went 18 of 24 for 248 yards. Colorado is 2-1 following their 28-9 road win at Colorado St. The Buffs put up 419 yards with 109 rushing for 5.7 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 340 yards to the Rams with 209 passing on 39 attempts. Shedeur Sanders went 36 of 49 for 310 yards and four touchdowns.
The Pick:
Colorado passing game is generating 69.1% completions for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. They are putting up 333 yards per game. On defense the Buffs allow 68.4% completions for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The quarterback switch to Robertson improved the Bears pass efficiency. Baylor is 9-3 to the over in their past 12 road games. Play Baylor and Colorado over 51.
UL Monroe vs. Texas College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
UL Monroe at Texas 8PM ET—UL Monroe improved to 2-0 following their 32-6 home win to UAB. The Warhawks put up 296 yards with 209 rushing for over 4 yards a carry. On defense they held the Blazers to 259 yards with 35 rushing for under three yards per run. General Booty went 9 of 16 for 87 yards. Texas is 3-0 following their 56-7 home win to UTSA. The Longhorns gained 614 yards with 187 rushing for 5.3 yards a carry. On defense they held the Roadrunners to 260 yards with 130 passing on 30 attempts. Arch Manning in relief went 9 of 12 for 223 yards and four touchdowns. Starting quarterback Ewers is questionable and Manning will start if Ewers can’t go.
The Pick:
UL Monroe allows 75.4% completion rate. The Longhorns are averaging 54 points at home. On defense they hold opponents to 3.5 yards per run and 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Texas completes 73.3% of their passes with 10.2 yards per pass attempt. Play Texas -44.
Fresno St vs. New Mexico College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Fresno St at New Mexico 8:30PM ET—Fresno St is 2-1 following their 48-0 home win to New Mexico St. The Bulldogs put up 525 yards with 281 rushing for 6.5 yards per rush. On defense they held the Aggies to 138 yards with 61 passing yards on 29 attempts. Mikey Keene hit 12 of 22 for 221 yards with two touchdowns. New Mexico fell to 0-3 with their 45-19 road defeat at Auburn. The Lobos put up 448 yards with 157 rushing for 6 yards a carry. On defense they gave up 503 yards to the Tigers with 268 rushing for 6.7 yards a carry. Devon Dampier completed 22 of 44 for 291 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
The Pick:
New Mexico is defending very poorly as they are giving up 7.4 yards per run and allowing 64% completions with 9.7 yards per pass attempt. Fresno St is getting efficient quarterback play with 8.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs have defended well holding foes to 3.7 yards per carry and 49.15 completions for 4.5 yards per pass attempt. The Lobos are 0-2 to the spread as an underdog of +7.5 to +14 and 2-5 at home to the spread against the Mountain West. Play Fresno St +13.
Purdue vs. Oregon St College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Purdue at Oregon St 8:30PM ET—Purdue drops to 1-1 following their 66-7 home defeat to Notre Dame. The Boilermakers gained 162 yards with 38 rushing for under two yards per carry. On defense the Boilermakers allowed 578 yards to the Fighting Irish with 362 rushing for 8.4 yards per run. Hudson Card went 11 of 24 for 124 yards with a touchdown and two picks. Oregon St fell to 2-1 with their 49-14 home defeat to Oregon. The Beavers put up 309 yards with 131 rushing for over four yards a carry. On defense they allowed 546 yards to the Ducks with 306 passing on 27 attempts. Gevani McCoy hit 22 of 34 for 172 yards.
The Pick:
Both teams came off blowout losses. Purdue is getting accurate quarterback play and running for 5.1 yards a carry. Oregon St is allowing 5.7 yards per run. Play Purdue +4.
Kansas St vs. BYU College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Kansas St at BYU 10:30PM ET—Kansas St is 3-0 following their 31-7 home win to Arizona. The K State Wildcats delivered 391 yards with 235 rushing for 5.7 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 324 yards to Arizona with 56 rushing for three yards a carry. Avery Johnson completed 14 of 23 for 156 yards and two touchdowns. He rushed for 110 yards. BYU is 3-0 with their 34-14 road win at Wyoming. The Cougars put up 358 yards with 140 rushing for five yards a carry. On defense they held the Cowboys to 217 yards with 140 passing on 31 attempts. Jake Retzlaff went 22 of 36 for 291 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
BYU has been productive offensively with 6.5 yards per carry on the ground and 65% completions with 7.9 yards per pass attempt. They hold opponents to 4 yards a carry on the ground. Kansas St has issues defending he pass by allowing 62.5% completions for 8 yards per pass attempt. The Wildcats are 1-4 to the spread as a road favorite. Play BYU +6.5.