Free MLB Picks For Today, Thursday 9/19/2024
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Giants at Orioles—Logan Webb to start for San Francisco. Webb in 31 starts in 2024 deals with an ERA of 3.53 with WHIP of 1.24. The righthander strikes out 20.2% with 5.9% walks. Ground balls served at 56.9% with 0.51 home runs per nine innings. Zach Elin to start for Baltimore. Eflin has 26 starts with an ERA of 3.55 and WHIP of 1.13. The veteran strikes out 20.1% with 2.8% walks. Grounders are 43% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Webb in his past four starts allowed 17 runs with four homers in 21 innings of work. Eflin has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his past five starts. San Francisco in their past seven games were hitting .211 but got hot in this series. San Francisco is 11-21 on the road against winning teams with a -7.2-unit loss. The Orioles are 20-9 at home in Day Games with a +6.9-unit return. Play Baltimore -130.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Twins at Guardians—Simeon Woods Richardson to start for Minnesota. Woods Richardson in 26 starts on the year puts up an ERA of 4.08 with WHIP of 1.25. The righthander strikes out 20.2% with 8.5% walks. Grounders are 35.2% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. Joey Cantillo is the starter for Cleveland. Cantillo appeared in seven games with an ERA of 4.99 and WHIP of 1.17. The lefthander fans 25% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 48.8% with 1.76 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Woods Richardson in his past four starts has an ERA of 6.89 with WHIP of 1.79. Cantillo in his past three appearances allowed one earned run with 17 strikeouts in 13 2/3rd innings. Cleveland bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 1.51 with the Twins at 5.35. The Twins are 10-21 as a road underdog of +100 or higher with a -9.8-unit loss. Cleveland is 32-12 when a home favorite of -100 to -150 with a +16.7-unit return. Play Cleveland -110.
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Braves at Reds—Chris Sale to start for Atlanta. Sale in 28 starts this season carries an ERA of 2.35 with WHIP of 1.00. The lefthander has an elite 32.2% K rate with 5.4% walks. Grounders are 44.6% with limited home run damage. Julian Aguiar to start for Cincinnati. Aguiar has six starts with an ERA of 4.88 with WHIP of 1.23. The righthander fans 12.6% with 8.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 37.1% with 1.95 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 6.31 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
Sale has allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight starts. Aguiar in his past three starts has an ERA of 3.29 with WHIP of 0.95. Sale is 4-2 to the under when favored on the road by -175 or higher. Atlanta is 31-17 to the under facing right-handed starters on the road. The Reds are 15-6 to the under when a home underdog of +100 or higher. Play Atlanta and Cincinnati under 8.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Blue Jays at Rangers—Kevin Gausman to start for Toronto. Gausman has 29 starts this season providing an ERA of 4.02 with WHIP of 1.25. The veteran fans 21.4% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls come in at 38.2% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. Kumar Rocker will start for Texas. Rocker in his MLB debut allowed one earned run with seven strikeouts in four innings at Seattle. The righthander was a first-round pick in 2022 who put up great numbers in three levels of the minors this season.
The Pick:
Gausman in his past seven starts has an ERA of 2.56 with WHIP of 1.12. Both bullpens were in poor form the past ten games. The team record behind Gausman on the road against losing teams is 5-0 with a +5.2-unit return. Could be another short outing for Rocker and exposes a poor bullpen longer. Play Toronto +100.
NY Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Yankees at Mariners—Clarke Schmidt to start for NY. Schmidt has 13 starts this year putting up an ERA of 2.41 with WHIP of 1.13. The righthander strikes out 25.9% with 7.7% walks. Grounders are 41.8% with 0.89 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.55 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Logan Gilbert to start for Seattle. Gilbert in 30 starts has an ERA of 3.24 with WHIP of 0.89. The righty is fanning 26.9% with 4.6% walks. Grounders served at 44.6% with 1.03 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Schmidt has allowed two earned runs or fewer in his past six starts. Gilbert in his past five starts allowed 18 runs in 30 2/3rd innings. NY bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 1.36. The team mark behind Schmidt is 4-0 on the road when facing an AL team with a slugging percentage of .410 or worse. The team record behind Gilbert is 1-4 when facing a team that outscored opponents by 0.5 runs or greater with a -4.4 unit loss. Play NY -110.
LA Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Dodgers at Marlins—Jack Flaherty to start for LA. Flaherty in 26 starts on the year carries an ERA of 3.04 with WHIP of 1.05. The righthander has an elite 30.5% K rate with 5.5% walks. Ground balls are 39.8% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings. Edward Cabrera to start for Miami. Cabrera has 18 starts with an ERA of 4.55 and WHIP of 1.33. The righty is fanning 26.1% with 11.6% walks. Grounders dished at 48% with 1.42 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Flaherty in his past three road starts allowed eight earned runs with nine walks and two homers in 13 2/3rd innings. Cabrera in his past six starts has an ERA of 3.48 with WHIP of 1.16. Flaherty is 5-1 to the over in his past six starts on the road. Cabrera 6-1 to the over in Day Games. LA is 17-9 to the over on the road facing an NL team that allows 4.5 runs per game or greater. Play LA and Miami over 7.5.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Red Sox at Rays—Brayan Bello to start for Boston. Bello in 28 starts on the year carries an ERA of 4.60 with WHIP of 1.38. The righthander fans 21.5% with 9.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 51.3% with 1.12 home runs per nine innings. Zack Littell to start for Tampa Bay. Littell has 27 starts with an ERA of 3.73 and WHIP of 1.29. The righty is fanning 20.7% with 5.1% walks. Ground balls are 34.9% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Bello in his past seven starts has an ERA of 3.07 with WHIP of .117. Littell has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his past seven starts. The Rays bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 3.46. In their past seven games the Red Sox are hitting .204. The Rays bat .223 against right-handed starters. Bello 6-2 to the under in his past eight starts on the road. Play Boston and Tampa Bay under 8.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Diamondbacks at Brewers—Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona. Pfaadt in 29 starts on the year delivers an ERA of 4.81 with WHIP of 1.27. The righthander fans 22.8% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls served at 42.1% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.66 does suggest a drop in ERA based on form. Tobias Myers to start for Milwaukee. Myers appeared in 24 games on the year dishing an ERA of 3.07 with WHIP of 1.17. The righty is striking out 22.2% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 38% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.10 does imply a rising ERA if his numbers hold.
The Pick:
Pfaadt in his past six starts has an ERA of 9.00 with WHIP of 2.00. Myers has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of eleven starts. Arizona bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 6.33. The team record behind Myers at home is 5-1 in his past six starts. Play Milwaukee -103.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. NY Mets MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Phillies at Mets—Taijuan Walker to start for Philadelphia. Walker has 17 starts this year delivering an ERA of 6.29 with WHIP of 1.63. The righthander has seen his Ks fall to 15.7% with 8.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 38.2% with 2.29 home runs per nine innings. Luis Severino will start for NY. Severino in 29 starts an ERA of 3.77 with WHIP of 1.23. The veteran strikes out 20.8% with 7.9% walks. Ground balls come in at 45.6% with 1.10 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Walker in his past eight starts has an ERA of 7.89 with WHIP of 1.92. Severino in his past six starts has an ERA of 2.35 with WHIP of 1.10. NY bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 4.74. The Phillies are 16-6 to the over on the road when an underdog of +100 or higher. Play Philadelphia an NY over 8.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Pirates at Cardinals—Luis Ortiz to start for Pittsburgh. Ortiz appeared in 35 games with an ERA of 3.45 and WHIP of 1.13. The righthander strikes out 18.8% with 7.7% walks. Ground balls dealt at 38.3% with 1.10 home runs per nine innings. Erick Fedde will start for St Louis. Fedde has 29 starts with an ERA of 3.45 with WHIP of 1.18. The righty is fanning 20.8% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls are 41.8% with 1.10 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Ortiz in his past eight starts has an ERA of 4.70 with WHIP of 1.11 pitching to contact and getting hurt by the home run ball. Fedde in his past six starts has an ERA of 4.13 with WHIP of 1.32. St Louis bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 1.73 with the Pirates at 5.03. The Pirates are The Pirates are 6-11 on the road facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.35 or lower with a -2.8-unit loss. Play St Louis -136.
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Nationals at Cubs—Patrick Corbin will start for Washington. Corbin in 30 starts on the season puts up an ERA of 5.45 with WHIP of 1.49. The lefthander fans 18.4% with 7.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 47.4% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.38 that suggests a drop in ERA based on form. Javier Assad to start for Chicago. Assad has 27 starts with an ERA of 3.27 and WHIP of 1.36. The righthander fans 19.6% with 10% walks. Ground balls come in at 42.6% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.48. suggesting an uptick in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
Corbin in his past four starts on the road has an ERA of 9.95 with WHIP of 2.21. Assad in his past four home starts has an ERA of 2.33 with WHIP of 1.29. The Nationals bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 4.37. The team record behind Corbin on the road is 4-11. The team mark behind Assad is 4-1 in his past five home starts. Play Chicago -167.
LA Angels vs. Houston Astros MLB Pick Prediction 9/19/2024
Angels at Astros—Jose Suarez to start for LA. Suarez appeared in 20 games delivering an ERA of 6.80 with WHIP of 1.70. The lefthander fans 23.4% with 11.7% walks. Ground balls come in at 42.7% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.44 suggesting his ERA to drop if these numbers hold. Yusei Kikuchi to start for Houston. Kikuchi has 30 starts with an ERA of 4.24 with WHIP of 1.22. The lefthander strikes out 27.5% with 6.1% walks. Grounders sit at 42.2% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Suarez in his past four starts has an ERA of 7.59 with WHIP of 1.78. Kikuchi in his past eight starts has an ERA of 3.19 with WHIP of 0.94. Both bullpens were in good form the past ten games. Houston in their past seven games is hitting .274 with the Angels at .228. The Astros are 40-20 to the under facing AL teams that average 4.4 runs per game or fewer. Play LA and Houston under 8.5.