Free College Football Picks Week 4 Part 1-9/21/2024
Houston vs. Cincinnati College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Houston at Cincinnati 12PM ET—Houston improved to 1-2 following their 33-7 home win to Rice. The Cougars put up 379 yards with 237 rushing for over 5.5 yards per run. On defense they held the Owls to 159 yards with 84 passing on 27 attempts. Donvan Smith hit 12 of 21 for 142 yards and a touchdown. Cincinnati is 1-1 with their 27-16 road win at Miami Ohio. The Bearcats put up 401 yards with 215 rushing for seven yards per carry. They surrendered 380 yards to the Red Hawks with 356 passing on 39 attempts. Brendan Sorsby hit 21 of 34 for 186 yards with a touchdown.
The Pick:
The Cougars are getting efficient passing with 66.7% completion rate and 7 yards per pass attempt. They have shown improved defense by limiting opponents to 3.5 yards per run and 5.1 yards per pass attempt. The Cincinnati defense allows 4.6 yards per run with 8.1 yards per pass attempt. The Cougars are 4-1 as a road underdog of seven or fewer points. Play Houston +3.5.
Marshall vs. Ohio St College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Marshall at Ohio St 12PM ET—Marshall fell to 1-1 following their 31-14 road defeat to Virginia Tech. The Thundering Herd gained 278 yards with 147 rushing for under 6 yards per run. On defense they allowed 338 yards to the Hokies with 208 rushing for four yards per run. Stone Earle hit 13 of 36 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown and pick. Ohio St is 2-0 with their 56-0 home win to Western Michigan. The Buckeyes posted 683 yards with 273 rushing for 6.5 yards per run. They held the Broncos to 99 yards with 71 passing on 17 attempts. Will Howard hit 18 of 26 for 292 yards with a touchdown.
The Pick:
Marshall run game is generating 6.5 yards per run averaging 31 carries. Their defense limits foes to 4.1 yards a carry. The Buckeyes defense has been outstanding by holding opponents to 1.5 yards per run and 4.4 yards per pass attempt. Play Marshall and Ohio St under 51.
Charlotte vs. Indiana College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Charlotte at Indiana 12PM ET—Charlotte is 1-2 following their 27-26 home win to FCS Gardner Webb. The Prior week was a 38-20 road defeat at North Carolina. They put up 358 yards on the Tar Heels defense with 49 rushing for two yards a carry. They allowed 490 yards to UNC with 269 rushing for six yards per rush. Max Brown hit 8 of 12 for 175 yards. Brown is injured and questionable here. Freshman backup Deshawn Purdie suffered a leg injury and was questionable. Third string Trexler Ivey was effective in relief. Ivey saw work in 10 games last year and struggled with accuracy and efficiency. Indiana is 3-0 following their 42-13 road win at UCLA. The Hoosiers put up 430 yards with 123 rushing for over four yards per run. On defense they limited the Bruins to 238 yards with 96 rushing for under four yards per run. Kurtis Rourke hit 25 of 33 for 307 yards and four touchdowns.
The Pick:
Ivey’s experience is the key here. The 49ers are throwing for 279 yards and averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They were able to cover in North Carolina. Charlotte is 9-4 as a road underdog. Indiana is 2-5 as a home favorite. Play Charlotte +28.
Kansas vs. West Virginia College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Kansas at West Virginia 12PM ET—Kansas fell to 1-2 following their 23-20 home defeat to UNLV. The Jayhawks put up 352 yards with 199 rushing for over 5.5 yards per run. On defense they held the Rebels to 267 yards with 181 rushing for under four yards per run. Jalon Daniels completed 12 of 24 for 153 yards and two interceptions. West Virginia sits at 1-2 with their 38-34 road defeat at Pittsburgh. The Mountaineers gained 398 yards with 188 rushing for 4.2 yards per run. Their defense gave up 279 yards to the Panthers with 301 passing on 30 attempts. Garrett Greene completed 16 of 30 passes for 21 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
The Pick:
Daniels struggles at quarterback the concern here. The Jayhawks are completing only 53.6% of his passes with only 5.3 yards per pass attempt. West Virginia is offense is flowing well with 5.3 yards per run and 7.3 yards per pass attempt. They are defending the run well. The Mountaineers are 5-3 as a home favorite. Quarterback Greene is experienced. Play West Virginia -2.5.
James Madison vs. North Carolina College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
James Madison at North Carolina 12PM ET—James Madison is 2-0 following their 13-6 two weeks ago at home to FCS Gardner Webb. They opened with the 30-7 road win at Charlotte. In that win they put up 417 yards with 198 rushing for 4.7 yards per run. On defense they allowed 324 yards to the 49ers with 198 passing on 45 attempts. Alonza Barnett hit 10 of 18 for 219 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. North Carolina is 3-0 after their 45-10 home win to FCS North Carolina Central. Two weeks ago it was a 38-20 home win to Charlote. In that win the Tar Heels gained 480 yards with 269 rushing for six yards per run. On defense they allowed 358 yards to the 49ers with 309 passing on 31 attempts. Conner Harrell completed 16 of 25 for 219 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
Big step-up game for the Dukes after facing Charlotte and Gardner Webb in their opener. Barnett first year starter in his first test against a major conference team. The Tar Heels ground game is generating 5.9 yards a carry which should help Harrell in the passing game. Their defense smothers teams on the ground and allows only 52.7% completion rate. There was a coaching change for this season for James Madison and they brought back only seven starters. Play North Carolina -10.5.
NC State vs. Clemson College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
NC State at Clemson 12PM ET—NC State is 2-1 following their 30-20 home win to Louisiana Tech. The Wolfpack put up 361 yards with 36 rushing for four yards per carry. On defense they allowed 324 yards to the Bulldogs with 281 passing on 36 attempts. Grayson McCall hit 9 of 13 for 54 yards. McCall was banged up and came off the bench for the backup CJ Bailey. He is questionable here. Clemson sits at 1-1 with their 66-20 home win to Appalachian St. The Tigers put up 712 yards with 252 rushing for 7.4 yards per run. On defense they allowed 363 yards to the Mountaineers with 214 passing on 43 attempts. Cade Klubnik completed 24 of 26 for 378 yards and five touchdowns.
The Pick:
NC State is running for only 4.1 yards a carry. The quarterback situation with the Wolf Pack the concern here. The Wolf Pack are allowing 5 yards per rush and are facing a Clemson offense that produces 5.2 yards per run along with 8.9 yards per pass attempt. NC State was crushed by the physical lines of Tennessee. Clemson offensive and defensive lines are the difference here. Play Clemson -20.5.
Rice vs. Army College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Rice at Army 12PM ET—Rice fell to 1-2 with their 33-7 road defeat to Houston. The Owls put up only 159 yards with 75 rushing for three yards a carry. On defense they allowed 379 yards to the Cougars with 237 rushing for 5.6 yards per run. EJ Warner went 12 of 21 for 50 yards with an interception. Army is 2-0 after their 24-7 road win at FAU. The Black Knights gained 449 yards with 405 rushing for 7 yards per run. On defense they limited the Owls to 245 yards with 193 passing on 37 attempts. Bryson Daily went 1 of 4 for 44 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
Rice piled up stats in their win against FCS Texas Southern. They were outscored 67-21 to Houston and Sam Houston. Army ground attack is strong to start the year and have defended against the run along with pass outstanding. Play Army -5.
Tulane vs. Louisiana College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Tulane at Louisiana 12PM ET—Tulane is 1-2 following their 34-19 road defeat to Oklahoma. The Green Wave put up 279 yards with 106 rushing for three yards per run. On defense they allowed 349 yards to the Sooners with 182 rushing for four yards per carry. Darian Mensah hit 14 of 32 for 166 yards with a touchdown and interception. Louisiana is 2-0 with their 34-10 road win at Kennesaw St. The Ragin Cajuns put up 454 yards with 257 rushing for 7.1 yards per carry. Defensively they limited the Owls to 204 yards with 93 passing on 14 attempts. Ben Wooldridge completed 15 of 19 for 189 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick:
The Green Wave passing game creates big plays with 9.4 yards per pass attempt and running for 4.5 yards a carry. Louisiana played a weak schedule with Kennesaw St and Grambling. The Green Wave holds opponents to just 6 yards per pass attempt. Against a weak schedule the Ragin Cajuns are allowing 63.4% completion rate. The Green Wave is 8-2 to the spread on the road. Play Tulane -3.
Florida vs. Mississippi St College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Florida at Mississippi St 12PM ET—Florida is 1-2 after their 33-20 home defeat to Texas A&M. The Gators put up 301 yards with 52 rushing for 2.1 yards per rush. On defense they allowed 488 yards to the Aggies with 310 rushing for 5.6 yards per run. Graham Mertz hit 12 of 15 for 195 yards with a touchdown and pick. Mississippi St is 1-2 after their 41-17 home defeat to Toledo. The Bulldogs put up 385 yards with 66 rushing for under three yards per run. On defense they allowed 454 yards to the Rockets with 285 passing on 28 attempts. Blake Shapen hit 28 of 39 for 319 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
Florida runs for 4.1 yards a carry. Mississippi St struggles on the ground with 3.5 yards per attempt. They do defend the pass well and opponents rush for only 3.6 yards per attempt against them. Both offenses struggled against FBS opponents. Play Florida and Mississippi St under 59.
Ohio vs. Kentucky College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Ohio at Kentucky 12:45PM ET—Ohio is 2-1 after their 21-6 home win to FCS Morgan St. Two weeks ago it was a 27-10 home win to South Alabama. In that victory they put up 404 yards with 200 rushing for 5 yards per carry. On defense the Bobcats allowed 336 yards to the Jaguars with 228 passing on 37 attempts. Parker Navarro went 20 of 28 for 204 yards and a touchdown. Kentucky fell to 1-2 with their 13-12 home defeat to Georgia. The Wildcats gained 284 yards with 170 rushing for 3.8 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 262 yards to the Bulldogs with 102 rushing for under 3.5 yards a carry. Brock Vandagriff hit 14 of 27 for 114 yards.
The Pick:
Ohio has ran effectively this year with 6.7 yards per run. On defense they hold opponents to 4.2 yards a carry. Kentucky struggles to defend the pass allowing 67.8% completions with 7.7 yards per carry. The passing game has been inefficient for the Wildcats. Tough to lay nearly three touchdowns with Kentucky after that physical game against Georgia. Play Ohio +20.
Ball St vs. Central Michigan College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Ball St at Central Michigan 12:45PM ET—Ball St is 1-1 after their 62-0 road defeat at Miami. The Cardinals gained115 yards with six rushing on 20 carries. On defense they surrendered 750 yards with 507 passing on 40 attempts. Kadin Semonza hit 16 of 26 for 111 yards and a pick. Central Michigan fell to 1-2 with their 30-9 road loss to Illinois. The Chippewas put up 308 yards with 142 passing for over four yards a carry. On defense they allowed 379 yards to the Fighting Illini with 242 passing on 29 attempts. Joe Labas hit 12 of 25 for 125 yards and an interception.
The Pick:
Ball St returned only one starter on defense. They gave up 34 points to FCS Missouri St in the opener. The Cardinals are allowing 7.8 yards per run and 75% completions with 12.7 yards per pass attempt. The Chippewas are running for 4.5 yards a carry and hold opposing quarterbacks to 6.5 yards per pass attempt with 58.6% completions. Ball St is 0-5 to the spread on the road in their past five September games. Play Central Michigan -6.5.
Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Virginia at Coastal Carolina 2PM ET—Virginia is 2-1 following their 27-13 home defeat to Maryland. The Cavaliers gained 370 yards with 123 rushing for 4 yards per run. On defense they allowed 391 yards to the Terrapins with 263 passing on 43 attempts. Anthony Colandrea hit 21 of 37 for 247 yards with two interceptions. Coastal Carolina moves to 3-0 following their 28-20 road win at Temple. The Chanticleers put up 287 yards with 184 rushing for 4.5 yards a carry. They held the Owls to 314 yards with 185 passing on 25 attempts. Ethan Vasko hit 15 of 21 for 103 yards with a touchdown.
The Pick:
Virginia passing attack is averaging 300 yards and getting accuracy with downfield average of 8.5 yards per attempt. They defend well holding opponents to 3.6 yards per run. Coastal Carolina has played a weak schedule by facing Temple, William & Mary and Jacksonville St and giving up over 20 points per game against each of these teams. Play Virginia -3.5.
Utah St vs. Temple College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Utah St at Temple 2PM ET—Utah St fell to 0-1 following their 38-21 home defeat to Utah. The Aggies put up 385 yards with 140 rushing for 4.5 yards per rush. On defense they allowed 460 yards to the Utes with 221 rushing for nearly 5.5 yards per rush. Spencer Petras has missed the past two games and upgraded to probable this week. Petras is a transfer from Iowa who completed 55.9% of his passes last year with 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Temple is 0-3 after their 28-20 home defeat to Coastal Carolina. The Owls gained 314 yards with 129 rushing for nearly four yards per rush. On defense they held the Chanticleers to 287 yards with 103 passing on 21 passing. Forrest Brock has a head injury and is questionable. Evan Simon went 17 of 25 for 185 yards with two touchdowns and a pick.
The Pick:
The Rutgers transfer Simon’s performance last week is encouraging here. Utah St is struggling in pass defense by allowing 68.4% completion rate with 253 yards. Opponents rush for 5.6 yards a carry on them. The Owls are holding opponents to 125 passing yards and 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Aggies are 3-12 to the spread on the road in their past fifteen. Temple is 9-6 to the spread in their past fifteen games. Play Temple +6.
Arkansas St vs. Iowa St College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Arkansas St at Iowa St 2PM ET—Arkansas St fell to 2-1 following their 28-18 road defeat to Michigan. The Red Wolves put up 280 yards with 58 rushing for 2.2 yards per run. On defense they allowed 435 yards to the Wolverines with 301 yards rushing for 6.8 yards per run. Jaylen Raynor hit 19 of 33 for 140 yards with an interception. Iowa St is 2-0 after their 20-19 road win at Iowa. The Cyclones overcame a 13-0 halftime deficit. They gained 361 yards with 89 rushing for 3.5 yards per run. On defense they held the Hawkeyes to 303 yards with 99 passing on 29 attempts. Rocco Becht went 23 of 35 for 272 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The Pick:
The Red Wolves offense is producing only 3.5 yards per run and have been inefficient in the passing game. Iowa St has defended the pass very well by allowing only 50.8% completions with 3.7 yards per pass attempt. On offense they run for 3.5 yards a carry. Play Arkansas St and Iowa St under 51.5.
Southern Miss vs. Jacksonville St College Football Pick Prediction 9/21/2024
Southern Miss at Jacksonville St 3PM ET—Southern Miss fell to 1-2 after their 49-24 home defeat to USF. The Golden Eagles put up 487 yards with 90 rushing for three yards a carry. On defense they allowed 562 yards with 369 rushing for over 6.5 yards per rush. Tate Rodemaker hit 10 of 15 for 120 yards and two touchdowns. He has been upgraded to probable having taken part in practice on Tuesday. Jacksonville St is 0-3 after their 37-34 road defeat at Eastern Michigan. The Gamecocks put up 423 yards with 112 rushing for over three yards a carry. On defense they allowed the Eagles 447 yards with 295 passing on 39 attempts. Logan Smothers missed last week with an injury and questionable. Senior Tyler Huff went 24 of 34 for 311 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Golden Eagles are struggling to get a run game going with 3.3 yards per carry average. They do defend the pass well. The Gamecocks generate only 4 yards per run and rush at a high volume. The Golden Eagles are 4-2 to the under in their past six road non conference games. The Gamecocks are 5-2 to the under in their past seven at home. Play Southern Miss and Jacksonville St under 60.5.