Free MLB Picks For Today, Tuesday 9/17/2024
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Giants at Orioles—Blake Snell to start for San Francisco. Snell has 18 starts in 2024 carrying an ERA of 3.52 with WHIP of 1.12. The lefthander has an elite 33% strikeout rate with 10.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 42.3% with 0.59 home runs per nine innings. Albert Suarez to start for Baltimore. Suarez appeared in 29 games and has an ERA of 3.39 with WHIP of 1.29. The righthander fans 18.8% with 7.7% walks. Grounders are 35.3% with 0.83 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Snell has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts. Suarez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of seven starts. In their past ten games the Orioles bullpen has an ERA of 6.21. In their past seven games the Giants batting .206 with the Orioles hitting .194. Play San Francisco and Baltimore under 8.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Twins at Guardians—Zebby Matthews to start for Minnesota. Matthews in six starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 7.11 with WHIP of 1.66. The righthander strikes out 22.3% with 4.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 40.2% with 2.84 home runs per nine innings. Gavin Williams will start for Cleveland. Williams has fourteen starts with an ERA of 5.23 with WHIP of 1.39. The righty is fanning 24% with 9.7% walks. Grounders are 38.5% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Matthews in his past three starts allowed 15 earned runs with six homers in 10 1/3rd innings. Williams in his past four games has an ERA of 5.50 with WHIP of 1.22 getting hurt with walks. The Guardians bullpen in the better form as in their past ten games an ERA of 1.51 with the Twins at 5.20. As this series began the Guardians had won eight of ten against the Twins. Minnesota is 9-21 as a road underdog of +100 or higher with a -11-unit loss and 7-20 on the road against winning teams with a -13.5-unit loss. Cleveland is 32-11 at home with a +18.1-unit return. Play Cleveland -118.
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Braves at Reds—Grant Holmes to start for Atlanta. Holmes appeared in 22 games with an ERA of 3.79 and WHIP of .124. The righthander strikes out 23.7% with 4.8% walks. Grounders sit at 45.6% with 0.82 home runs per nine innings. Brandon Williamson to start for Cincinnati. Williamson in three appearances has an ERA of 2.08 and WHIP of 0.77. The lefthander fans 22% with 6% walks. Ground balls are 38.2% with 1.38 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.63 suggests a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
Holmes in short outings has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of eight starts. Holmes has allowed one earned run in each of his three starts. In their past seven games the Braves batted .232 with the Reds at .235. Cincinnati is 16-25 when lined at home between +125 and -125 with a -10.5-unit loss. The Reds bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 5.05. Play Atlanta -118.
LA Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Dodgers at Marlins—Bobby Miller will start for LA. Miller in 12 starts in 2024 produces an ERA of 8.17 with WHIP of 1.69. The righthander fans 27.9% with 11.9% walks. Ground balls dished at 42.9% with 2.83 home runs per nine innings. Darren McCaughan will start for Miami. McCaughan appeared in eight games with an ERA of 7.06 with WHIP of 1.81. The righty is striking out 10.6% with 8.5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 32.7% with 1.84 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Miller in his past six starts has an ERA of 9.93 with WHIP of 1.76. McCaughan in his past three appearances allowed ten runs in 13 2/3rd innings. LA in their past ten games is hitting .262. LA is 16-9 to the over facing NL teams that allow 4.5 runs per game or greater. Miami is 51-18 to the over at home. Play LA and Miami over 9.5.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Red Sox at Rays—Nick Pivetta will start for Boston. Pivetta in 24 starts in 2024 puts up an ERA of 4.24 with WHIP of 1.14. The veteran strikes out 29.5% with 6% walks. Ground balls sit at 32.2% with 1.74 home runs per nine innings. Shane Baz to start for Tampa Bay. Baz has 11 starts in the year with an ERA of 3.28 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander fans 20.2% with 9.7% walks. Grounders are 39.9% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Pivetta in his past three starts has allowed two earned runs or fewer. Baz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. The Rays bullpen is in better form. But in their past seven games the Rays are batting .228 and putting up 2.3 runs per game. The team record behind Pivetta is 6-1 against losing teams on the road with a +4.7-unit return. Play Boston -110.
Washington Nationals vs. NY Mets MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Nationals at Mets—Mitchell Parker will start for Washington. Parker in 27 starts in 2024 carries an ERA of 4.24 with WHIP of 1.27. The rookie lefthander strikes out 21% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls served at 37% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. Tylor Megill to start for NY. Megill appeared in 13 games with an ERA of 4.48 with WHIP of 1.32. The righthander strikes out 27% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls dished at 38.6% with 0.87 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.52 does suggest a drop in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
Parker in his past five starts has an ERA of 3.38 with WHIP of 1.28. Megill in his past three starts allowed four earned runs in 15 1/3rd innings. Both bullpens have ERA’s over four in the past ten games. Washington in their past seven games is batting .218 with the Mets at .206. The team mark behind Parker is 6-1 as a road underdog of +100 to +150. NY is 9-6 to the over facing opponents getting outscored by 0.5 runs per game or greater. Play Washington and NY over 7.5.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Tigers at Royals—Casey Mize is starting for Detroit. Mize in 19 starts on the season delivers an ERA of 4.47 with WHIP of 1.40. The righthander strikes out 17.2% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls are 47.9% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings. Cole Ragans to start for KC. Ragans has 30 starts with an ERA of 3.32 with WHIP of 1.15. The lefthander fans 29.6% with 8.4% walks. Grounders are 39.6% with 0.78 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Mize in his return to the rotation allowed 17 runs with four homers in 16 innings. Ragans has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of eight starts. Both bullpens were in great form in the past ten games. But Detroit batted .270 in their past seven games. The team mark behind Ragans is 7-2 in night games with a +4.2-unit return. Detroit is 5-15 on the road facing teams that get outscored by 0.5 runs per game or greater with a -9.1-unit loss. KC has won six of seven against the Tigers. Play Kansas City -155.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Phillies at Brewers—Zack Wheeler to start for Philadelphia. Wheeler at 29 starts on the campaign puts up an ERA of 2.60 with WHIP of 0.97. The veteran strikes out 27.9% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls served at 42.3% with 0.90 home runs per nine innings. Frankie Montas will start for Milwaukee. Montas in 27 starts has an ERA of 4.49 with WHIP of 1.34. The righthander fans 21.4% with 9.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 41.5% with 1.17 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. Montas in his past four starts has an ERA of 4.13 with WHIP of 1.08. Both bullpens have been in great form in their past ten games. Philadelphia is batting .210 in their past seven games and the Brewers are at .235. The team mark is 7-0 to the under behind Wheeler when favored on the road by -125 and -175. The team is 3-1 to the under behind Montas as a +100 to +150 home underdog. Play Philadelphia and Milwaukee under 7.
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Athletics at Cubs—Mitch Spence to start for Oakland. Spence appeared in 32 games in the year posting up an ERA of 4.33 with WHIP of 1.35. The rookie righthander strikes out 19.3% with 7% walks. Ground balls are 49.4% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. Jordan Wicks to start for Chicago. Wicks appeared in 10 games delivering an ERA of 5.27 with WHIP of 1.61. The lefthander fans 20.1% with 9.5% walks. Ground balls served at 39.5% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Spence has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past ten starts. Wicks in his past two starts allowed ten earned runs with four homers and eight walks in eight innings. Chicago bats .229 against the AL. The team mark behind Wicks is 1-3 at home. Oakland is 17-13 in their past 30 road games with a +11.3-unit return. Play Oakland +138.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Pirates at Cardinals—Bailey Falter to start for Pittsburgh. Falter in 25 starts this year puts up an ERA of 4.20 with WHIP of 1.27. The lefthander strikes out 16.8% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 34.6% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings. Lance Lynn to start for St Louis. Lynn has 22 starts with an ERA of 3.96 with WHIP of 1.36. The veteran fans 21.3% with 8.6% walks. Grounders are 36.5% with 1.21 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Falter in his past four starts has an ERA of 5.06 with WHIP of 1.41. Lynn has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. The Cardinals bullpen is in better form. The team mark behind Falter is 4-8 on the road with a -1.9-unit loss. The team behind Lynn is 7-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 with a +5.5-unit return. Play St Louis -132.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Blue Jays at Rangers—Chris Bassitt to start for Toronto. Bassitt in 29 starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 4.20 with WHIP of 1.41. The veteran strikes out 23% with 8.5% walks. Ground balls served at 40.8% with 0.99 home runs per nine innings. Nathan Eovaldi will start for Texas. Eovaldi has 26 starts with an ERA of 3.67 with WHIP of 1.09. The righthander fans 24.4% with 5.9% walks. Ground balls come in at 48.7% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Bassitt in his past three starts has an ERA of 2.50 with WHIP of 1.33 with high strikeouts. Eovaldi in his past seven starts has an ERA of 4.50. Texas bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 5.58. In their past seven games they are batting .197. Toronto is 12-8 on the road facing teams that average 4.4 runs per game or fewer with a +3.6-unit return. Play Toronto +120.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Diamondbacks at Rockies—Jordan Montgomery to start for Arizona. Montgomery appeared in 23 games with an ERA of 6.23 with WHIP of 1.65. The lefthander fans 14.9% with 8.2% walks. Grounders sit at 43.1% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings. Ryan Feltner is the starter for Colorado. Feltner has 27 starts with an ERA of 4.89 and WHIP of 1.39. The righthander strikes out 20.5% with 7.6% walks. Ground balls served at 44.1% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Montgomery in his past four starts has an ERA of 4.85 with WHIP of 1.38. Feltner has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five. But Arizona in their past seven games is batting .328. The team mark behind Montgomery is 5-3 on the road in night games. The team record behind Feltner has a home underdog of +125 or greater is 4-2 with a +3.8-unit return. Play Colorado +136.
Chicago White Sox vs. LA Angels MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
White Sox at Angels—Davis Martin to start for Chicago. Martin appeared in ten games in the year putting up an ERA of 4.14 with WHIP of 1.35. The righthander strikes out 21.7% with 8.9% walks. Grounders are 47.5% with 1.09 home runs per nine innings. Griffin Canning is the starter for LA. Canning appeared in 29 games with an ERA of 5.35 with WHIP of 1.41. The righty is fanning 17.3% with 8.7% walks. Ground balls dealt at 40.4% with 1.61 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Davis in his past seven starts has an ERA of 3.60 with WHIP of 1.17. Canning in his past eight starts has an ERA of 6.11 with WHIP of 1.38. Both bullpens are in good form in their past ten games. LA is batting .220 in their past seven games. Chicago is 4-4 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 with a +1.2 unit return. LA is 4-11 in their past 15 at home against losing teams with a -8.1 unit loss. Play Chicago +146.
NY Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Yankees at Mariners—Luis Gil to start for NY. Gil has 26 starts in 2024 dealing with an ERA of 3.18 with WHIP of 1.17. The righthander strikes out 27.5% with 12.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 36.7% with 0.86 home runs per nine innings. Bryan Woo to start for Seattle. Woo in 19 starts has an ERA of 2.38 with WHIP of 0.82. The righty is fanning 20.3% with 2.5% walks. Ground balls come in at 41.2% with 0.94 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Gil in his past five starts has an ERA of 3.13 with control issues. Woo has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his past six starts. Both bullpens are in great form. Seattle in their past seven games is hitting .288 to the Yankees .220. The team mark behind Woo at home is 8-0 with a +8-unit return. Play Seattle +107.
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres MLB Pick Prediction 9/17/2024
Astros at Padres—Hunter Brown is the starter for Houston. Brown in 29 appearances in 2024 dealing with an ERA of 3.59 with WHIP of 1.29. The righthander strikes out 25.3% with 8.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 48.7% with 0.97 home runs per nine innings. Michael King will start for San Diego. King appeared in 29 games with an ERA of 3.06 with WHIP of 1.21. The righty is fanning 28.1% with 8.8% walks. Ground balls are 40.6% with 0.95 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Brown has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven games. King has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts. Both bullpens sit in good form the past ten games. They are both hitting well in their past seven games. The team mark behind Brown on the road against winning teams is 2-5 with a -3.6-unit loss. The team record behind King at home is 8-5. The Astros are 6-15 on the road facing teams that outscore opponents by 0.5 runs per game or greater with a -9.7-unit loss. Play San Diego -109.