Free NFL Picks For Today, Sunday 9/8/2024
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Jaguars at Dolphins—Jacksonville starters on offense and defense are healthy. Miami offensive starters healthy with a corner questionable. Linebacker Bradley Chubb is out. Jacksonville finished at 9-8 in 2023. They put up 22.2 points per game and gave up 21.8. They struggled with turnovers on offense along with the run game. They had an efficient passing attack. On defense they held opponents to 4.2 yards a carry with 240 passing yards for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Miami went 11-7 in 2023 and put up 27.9 points per game while giving up 23.2 points. The Dolphins rushed for five yards a carry and were an efficient passing attack. The defense limited opponents to 3.9 yards per carry with 223 passing for 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
The Pick:
The big concern here is the Jaguar pass rush with Chubb out. Jacksonville has a significant injury advantage based on the SIC score. Jaguars tight end is productive, and signs point to their first-round pick in Thomas a weapon in the passing game. They have to fix turnovers, and it is fixable. Play Jacksonville +3.5.
Minnesota Vikings vs. NY Giants NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Vikings at Giants—Minnesota and NY starters are healthy.
Minnesota looks to rebound from a 7-10 finish last season. They struggled with turnovers but were able to move the ball in the passing game. Defensively they allowed 21 points a game but allowed opposing quarterbacks 70.3% completion rate. With Kirk Cousins moving to Atlanta, it will be Sam Darnold at quarterback. He served as the backup in San Francisco last season after ineffective seasons with the Panthers. NY finished at 6-11 with poor offensive production. They put up 15.6 points per game while allowing 24 to their opponents. Their defense struggled to stop the run. Daniel Jones will start at quarterback. He completed 67.5% of his throws last season for a career low of 5.7 yards per pass attempt.
The Pick:
The Vikings covered five of six on the road last season. Jones coming off an ACL tear is always concerning if he is at 100% strength. Vikings receiver combo of Jefferson and Addison the key component here. Aaron Jones coming over from Green Bay has been a serviceable back. The injury scores are even on both sides. Play Minnesota -1.5.
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Panthers at Saints—Carolina tight end Tommy Tremble is out. Their starters on defense are healthy. New Orleans has a defensive tackle out and a linebacker questionable. The injury scores are somewhat even on both sides. Carolina finished at 2-15 last year. David Canales was a surprise head coaching hire, whose job was to improve the productivity of Bryce Young. They put up just 14 points per game last year while giving up 24.5. It was a wider discrepancy on the road. New Orleans finished at 9-8 and put up 23.6 points per game while allowing 19.2 points.
The Pick:
During joint practices observers noted the improvement out of quarterback Bryce Young. The Saints failed to cover five of eight at home last season. The defense tanked the final three games of last year but surrendering 398.7 yards per game. Carolina has covered 7 of 11 against the division and the Saints are 6-12 in their past 18 in the favorite role. They are 0-5 to the spread in their past five September games. Play Carolina +4.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Steelers at Falcons—Pittsburgh quarterback Russell Wilson is doubtful with his calf injury with the source being my live line service. Their left guard is out. The Steelers defensive starters are healthy. Atlanta fullback Robert Burns is out with their defensive starters healthy. The injury SIC score gives a significant advantage to the Falcons. Pittsburgh finished at 10-8 last year. They put up 18 points per game last year while giving up 20. The Steelers struggled in the passing game with only 6.2 yards per pass attempt and averaged 4.1 yards per run. Pittsburgh held opponents to 4.4 yards per run and defended the pass well. Atlanta went 7-10 in 2023. They put up 19 points per game while giving up 22. Their offense performed better at home with 390 yards and 24 points per game.
The Pick:
Justin Fields at full healthy is the better option over Russell Wilson whose calf injury will impact his speed and mobility. Kirk Cousins is coming back from a serious Achillies injury last year. He is on a new team and missed the preseason. Chemistry may be an issue. The Steelers have a good defense and expect them to pressure Cousins to test his recovery. The Falcons favored to cover five of eight at home last year. Play Pittsburgh +3.5.
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Patriots at Bengals—New England left guard is out. On defense a linebacker and free safety are questionable. Cincinnati receiver Higgins in doubt with Chase questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. Cincinnati has the SIC injury score advantage here with the biggest variance on offense. New England went 4-13 last season and O.J. Mayo is in his first season as head coach. They put up just 13.9 points per game while holding opponents to 21.5. Turnovers were a major issue. The Patriots rushed for 3.9 yards a carry with only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Defensively they limited opponents to 3.3 yards per carry. Cincinnati went 9-8 in 2023 putting up 21.5 points per game. The passing game averaged only 6.3 yards per attempt. They performed poorly on defense allowing 4.7 yards per run and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Jacoby Brissett will start at quarterback for New England. Joe Burrow is back healthy at quarterback after missing much of last season with a wrist injury.
The Pick:
The Bengals could be missing both receivers. The Patriots defense good but the offense is in rebuild with Drake Maye the future sitting out. Play New England and Cincinnati under 41.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Cardinals at Bills—Arizona’s starters on offense and defense are healthy. Buffalo as well. The Cardinals finished at 4-13 last year despite a winning spread record. They put up 19.4 points per game and surrendered 26.8 points. Arizona was an effective running team that averaged 5 yards a carry. Passing game struggled with 5.7 yards per pass attempt. On defense they allowed 143 yards rushing with 4.7 yards a carry. Buffalo put up 26.6 points a game in 2023. They rushed for 4.4 yards a carry and were an efficient passing team. On defense they did allow 4.7 yards per run but held foes to 6.1 yards per pass attempt. There has been a change to the receiving corps for the Bills. Kyler Murray will have first round pick Marvin Harrison their first-round pick along with talent surrendering him.
The Pick:
A healthy Murray does give opposing defenses that fit with his running ability. Upgrades at the receiver position the key. Talent has dropped for the Bills receivers. Last season the Cardinals covered five of eight as an underdog of +3.5 to +9.5. Play Arizona +6.5.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Texans at Colts—Houston starters on offense and defense are healthy. Indianapolis receiver Josh Downs is out. Pro Bowler Samson Ebukam lost for the season in training camp with an ACL. Houston finished at 11-8 last year. They put up 23 points per game last year while surrendering 21. The run game produced only 3.7 yards a carry, but it was an effective passing attack led by C.J. Stroud. Pass defense needs improvement with 68.2% completions allowed for 6.9 yards per attempt. Indianapolis was 9-8 in 2023. They put up 23.3 points per game while giving up 24.4. The Colts rushed for 4.3 yards a carry with only 6.4 yards per pass attempt as starting quarterback Trent Anthony Richardson missed most of the season. Indy held opposing offenses to 4.1 yards per run and 6.8 yards per pass attempt.
The Pick:
Point production was down over four points in the Texans road games last season. A healthy Jonathan Taylor will help Richardson. He rushed for 188 yards facing the Texans in their final game last year. Texans pass defense the concern in this opener on the road. Play Indianapolis +3.
Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Titans at Bears—Tennessee receiver DeAndre Hopkins is questionable. A cornerback is questionable. Chicago receiver Keenan Allen questionable. Both defensive ends are questionable for the Bears. The Titans finished at 6-11 in 2023. They put up 18 points and allowed 21.6 points per game. Their run game produced 4.2 yards a carry, but the passing game was ineffective. Their run defense was good, but they allowed 68% of completions for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Chicago went 7-10 last year. They generated 21.2 points and surrendered 22.3. The Bears had a good run game that produced 168 yards and 4.9 yards a carry. Defensively the held foes to 4 yards a carry and only 58.9% completions for 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Titans made a surprise coaching change. Bears rookie Caleb Williams makes his debut.
The Pick:
Will Levis showed some downfield abilities with a 7.1 yards per pass attempt average. Pollard was a good pickup at running back and Levis has quality receivers. The NFL is tough to rookie quarterbacks especially early in the season. Play Tennessee +3.5.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. LA Chargers NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Raiders at Chargers—Las Vegas starters on offense and defense are healthy. The Chargers offensive starters are healthy with a cornerback questionable. The Raiders finished at 8-9 last season. Their offense put up 19.5 points and surrendered 19.5 points per game. They struggled in the run game and in their downfield passing game with only 5.5 yards per attempt. Defensively they allowed 4.5 yards per run and 70.5% completion rate. Gardner Minshew won the quarterback battle. They lost running back Josh Jacobs during the offseason. LA Chargers went 5-12 in 2023. The team put up 20.4 points and allowed 23.4 points to their opponents. LA defended the run but allowed 250 yards passing per game with 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Jim Harbaugh is the new head coach and to help improve the running game are J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
The Pick:
This will feel like a Raiders home game as the Chargers have a small base of fans in LA. The Chargers let go of their key receivers in the offseason and it feels like a rebuild for them in the first season with Harbaugh. The Chargers pass defense a concern in this one. Play Las Vegas +3.
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Broncos at Seahawks—Denver starters on both sides of the field are healthy. Seattle receiver Tyler Lockett is questionable and on defense a linebacker is out. The Broncos finished at 8-9 last year as they put up only 21 points per game and allowed 24.3 points. They rushed for 4 yards a carry and struggled in the passing game. On defense they gave up 5 yards per rush and allowed 66.8% completions for 6.9 yards per attempt. Rookie Bo Nix won the quarterback battle in Denver. Seattle was 9-8 in 2023 and put up 21.4 points per game while surrendering 23.6 points. They rushed for 4.1 yards a carry with 230 yards passing per game with 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Geno Smith returns under center. Mike McDonald is a first-year head coach as Pete Carroll exits.
The Pick:
The injury to Lockett is a concern for the Seahawks. This puts pressure on a passing game that struggled. Nix had a good preseason that enabled him to win the job. The Broncos have covered six of eight when underdogs of +3.5 to +9.5 points. The Seahawks are 2-8 to the spread as a home favorite of seven or fewer points. Play Denver +6.
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Commanders at Buccaneers—Washington starters on offense and defense healthy. Bucs offensive starters are healthy, but their two defensive ends are out. Washington finished at 4-13 in 2023. Their offense put up 19.4 points per game while allowing 30.5 points. They rushed for 4.4 yards per carry and were ineffective in the passing game with a 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Defensively they gave up 4.5 yards a carry and 389 yards passing with 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Rookie Jayden Daniels won the quarterback job. Tampa Bay finished at 10-9 last year. The team put up 21.2 points and allowed 19.2 to their opponents. The running game struggled with 3.6 yards a carry with 64% completion rate in the passing game with 6.9 yards per attempt. Defensively they held opponents to 3.8 yards a carry with 250 passing yards for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Baker Mayfield was signed to return at quarterback.
The Pick:
Dan Quinn takes over as the Commanders head coach and is defensive minded. The one-dimensional approach by the Bucs offense is a concern as the run game was weak. The Commanders have covered 8 of 13 as an underdog. The Bucs are 3-8 as a home favorite. Play Washington +4.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Cowboys at Browns—Dallas starters on both side of the field are healthy. They did lose a corner during training camp and Diggs returns from serious injury. Cleveland left tackle is out and their right tackle is questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. Dallas put up 30 points per game while allowing 20.2 points to their opponents. They averaged 69.6% completion rate with 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Dallas rushed for 4.1 yards a carry. The defense allowed 4.2 yards per run and only 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland averaged 22.8 points per game while giving up 22.6. The run game put up only 3.9 yards a carry with massive struggles in the passing game. The defense held opponents to 4.2 yards per run and only 58.2% completion rate for 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
The Pick:
Prefer Dak Prescott over DeShaun Watson. There is continuity with the Cowboys offense even though receiver Cooper exits. Diggs makes this defense better for Dallas. Watson’s effectiveness is in question. Play Dallas +2.5.
LA Rams vs. Detroit Lions NFL Pick Prediction 9/8/2024
Rams at Lions—LA left tackle is out, and their right tackle is questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy, but the backups are banged up. Detroit starters are healthy on offense. A defensive tackle is questionable. There is a SIC injury score advantage here for the Lions. LA went 10-8 last season as they put up 23.7 points per game and allowed 22.3 to opponents. The run game improved with 4.3 yards a carry and had an efficient passing game. The defense held opponents to 4.1 yards a carry with 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Lions produced 27.4 points per game in 2023 being 4.6 yards per run and an efficient passing game. On defense they limited opponents to 3.8 yards per run but 257 yards passing for 7.4 yards per pass attempt.
The Pick:
Aaron Donalds is a major player exit for any team in the NFL this season. But Sean McVay appears to be able to plus holes on his team. The pass defense is the concern for the Lions laying these many points against a healthy Matthew Stafford. Play LA +6.5.