Free MLB Picks For Today, Monday 8/12/2024
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Cubs at Guardians—Shota Imanaga will start for Chicago. Imanaga has 21 starts on the season carrying an ERA of 3.06 with WHIP of 1.05. The righthander fans 25.7% with 3.6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 34.6% with 1.24 home runs per nine innings. Ben Lively is the starter for Cleveland. Lively in 20 starts an ERA of 3.59 with WHIP of 1.17. The righty is striking out 20.5% with 7.6% walks. Grounders are 38.8% with 1.55 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.75 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
Chicago is batting .229 against right-handed starters. Their bullpen on the road has an ERA Of 4.32 with the Guardians unit at an ERA of 2.58 at home. In his past three games Imanaga allowed nine earned runs with four homers in 19 1/3rd innings. Chicago is 15-27 when lined between -130 and +100 with a +13.66-unit return. The Guardians are 35-20 at home with a +5.34-unit return. Play Cleveland +105.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Cardinals at Reds—Sonny Gray to start for St Louis. Gray in 21 starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 3.65 with WHIP of 1.07. The veteran has an elite 30.4% K rate with 5.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 44.6% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings. Andrew Abbott to start for Cincinnati. Abbott has 23 starts with an ERA of 3.70 and WHIP of 1.31. The lefthander strikes out 19.4% with 9.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 33.3% with 1.71 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.18 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
The Cardinals are batting .229 against left-handed starters. They have a -30-run differential on the road. Their bullpen has been hammered over their past ten games. St Louis is 31-27 as a favorite with a -4.36-unit loss. They have lost five of seven on the road. Play Cincinnati +119.
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Astros at Rays—Framber Valdez is the starter for Houston. Valdez in 20 starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 3.46 with WHIP of 1.19. The lefthander fans 22.3% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 59.2% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings. Taj Bradley to start for Tampa Bay. Bradley has 16 starts with an ERA of 3.07 with WHIP of 1.09. The righthander strikes out 28.7% with 8.4% walks. Grounders are 42.5% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Tampa Bay in their past ten games is hitting .226. The Astros in this period are hitting .255. The Rays bullpen at home has an ERA of 4.72. Five straight wins for Houston. The team mark behind Valdez is 13-7 with a +2.16-unit return. Play Houston -117.
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Rangers at Red Sox—Tyler Mahle will start for Texas. Mahle in his season opener allowed one earned run with two strikeouts in five innings at home to the Astros. He returned from Tommy John surgery. The righthander has a career ERA of 4.28 with WHIP of 1.30 striking out 679 batters in 640 2/3rd innings. Brayan Bello will start for Boston. Bello has 21 starts with an ERA of 5.16 and WHIP of 1.45. The righty is fanning 22.2% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls dished at 50.6% with 1.45 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Texas bullpen on the road has an ERA of 6.04 with the Red Sox at 4.88. Boston is batting .262 against right-handed starters. Bello at home an ERA of 5.71 with WHIP of 1.60. The Rangers are 32-25 to the over on the road. Boston is 37-29 to the over facing teams that average 4.2 runs per game or greater. Play Texas and Boston over 9.5.
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Royals at Twins—Brady Singer is the starter for KC. Singer has 23 starts on the year delivering an ERA of 3.03 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander strikes out 22.2% with 6.8% walks. Grounders served at 48.4% with 0.90 home runs per nine innings. Pablo Lopez will start for Minnesota. Lopez in 23 starts an ERA of 4.74 with WHIP of 1.16. The veteran has a K mark of 27.1% with 5.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 40.3% with 1.47 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
KC has a +32-run differential on the road. In their past ten games they are hitting .282 and putting up 6.5 runs per game. The Twins have lost four of six. The Royals have won ten of 13 on the road. Minnesota is 7-13 when lined between -172 and -142 with a -8.62-unit loss. The team record behind Singer is 14-9 with a +1.21-unit return. Play KC +142.
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Yankees at White Sox—Luis Gil will start for NY. Gil at 22 starts on the year delivers an ERA of 3.06 with WHIP of 1.11. The righthander strikes out 28.5% with 12% walks. Ground balls sit at 37% with 0.76 home runs per nine innings. Ky Bush is the starter for Chicago. Bush in his MLB debut allowed three earned runs with five walks in four innings at Oakland. The lefthander was a second-round pick that put up good numbers in Double A this year but struggled in his promotion to Triple A.
The Pick:
NY in their past five games are hitting .278. Chicago bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 6.75 with the Yankees at 4.29. The Yankees have gone over in 13 of 16. They should be able to exploit this White Sox bullpen. Play NY and Chicago OVER 9.
LA Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Dodgers at Brewers—Clayton Kershaw to start for LAD. Kershaw in three starts in 2024 dealing with an ERA of 4.38 with WHIP of 1.62. The veteran fans 18.3% with 5% walks. Ground balls are 36.4% with 0.73 home runs per nine innings. Freddy Peralta will start for Milwaukee. Peralta has 23 starts on the campaign delivering an ERA of 4.02 with WHIP of 1.22. The righthander fans 29.4% with 8.9% walks. Ground balls dealt at 38.3% with 1.36 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Milwaukee in their past ten games is batting .280 and putting up 6.4 runs per game. They have won five of six. LA has lost 11 of 15 on the road. In their past ten games the Dodgers bullpen has an ERA of 3.62. The Brewers are 29-23 as an underdog with a +10.4-unit return. Play Milwaukee -101.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. LA Angels MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Blue Jays at Angels—Bowden Francis will start for Toronto. Francis appeared in 19 games on the season carrying an ERA of 5.44 with WHIP of 1.39. The righthander strikes out 19.9% with 7.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 33.8% with 1.99 home runs per nine innings. Davis Daniel to start for LA. Daniel has five starts with an ERA of 6.04 with WHIP of 1.38. The righty is fanning 21.1% with 3.7% walks. Ground balls come in at 37% with 1.42 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.00 does suggest a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
Long travel for both teams after playing on Sunday afternoon. LA in their past ten games is hitting .256. They have won 7 of 13 at home. The Blue Jays bullpen has an ERA of 4.73 on the road. Toronto is 30-38 as an underdog with a -13.8-unit loss. Play LA -109.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Pirates at Padres—Marco Gonzales to start for Pittsburgh. Gonzales has seven starts in 2024 providing an ERA of 4.54 with WHIP of 1.60. The lefthander strikes out 15.2% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls are 40.4% with 1.34 home runs per nine innings. Joe Musgrove will start for San Diego. Musgrove in ten starts has an ERA of 5.66 with WHIP of 1.48. The righthander fans 20.6% with 7% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.2% with 1.82 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Pittsburgh bullpen on the road has an ERA of 3.90 with the Padres pen at home an ERA of 4.45. San Diego does have a -11-run differential at home. Long travel spot for the Padres after playing at Miami on Sunday. San Diego pitching has given up tons of runs of late as their bullpen ERA if 5.40 in their past five games. The Pirates are 11-12 when lined between +121 and +151 with a +2.75-unit return. San Diego is 30-29 at home with a -6.56-unit loss. Play Pittsburgh +136.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Rockies at Diamondbacks—Bradley Blalock to start for Colorado. Blalock in his MLB debut allowed no runs with a walk in one inning of relief at San Diego. A 32nd draft pick in 2019 out of high school who in two stops in the minors this year allowing 42 earned runs with 76 strikeouts in 86 2/3rd innings. Brandon Pfaadt to start for Arizona. Pfaadt has 23 starts with an ERA of 3.92 with WHIP of 1.11. The righthander fans 22.2% with 5.2% walks. Ground balls are 43.2% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Colorado pitching allows .288 hitting on the road and carry a -150-run differential. In their past ten games the Diamondbacks are hitting .291 and putting up 6.8 runs per game. Arizona has won 15 of 18 games. Colorado is 17-43 as a road underdog with a -13.48-unit loss. Play Arizona on run line -1.5 runs at +106.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Pick Prediction 8/12/2024
Braves at Giants—Chris Sale will start for Atlanta. Sale has 21 starts in 2024 delivering an ERA of 2.75 with WHIP of 1.00. The lefthander has an elite 32.6% strikeout rate with 5.9% walks. Grounders are 47% with 0.56 home runs per nine innings. Blake Snell to start for San Francisco. Snell in 12 starts an ERA of 4.31 with WHIP of 1.10. The veteran has an elite K mark of 31.4% with 9.8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 42.2% with 0.86 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Atlanta is batting .230 on the road with their pitching staff allowing .226 hitting there. The Braves bullpen on the road has an ERA of 3.56. SF under 8-3 in their past 11 at home. Play Atlanta and San Francisco under 6.5.