Free MLB Picks For Today, Sunday 8/11/2024
LA Angels vs. Washington Nationals MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Angels at Nationals—Jack Kochanowicz will start for LA. Kochanowicz has two starts on the year allowing 11 earned runs with three walks and two homers in 7 innings of work. A third round pick in 2019 out of high school who started 18 games in Double A this year with an ERA of 4.50 and WHIP of 1.27 striking out 86 batters in 102 innings. MacKenzie Gore to start for Washington. Gore in 23 starts an ERA of 4.66 with WHIP of 1.53. The lefthander fans 24.5% with 8.8% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.7% with 0.85 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.59 does imply a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
In their past ten games the Angels are hitting .259 and putting up 4.6 runs per game. The Nationals in this period are hitting .251 and putting up 4.2 runs per game. In this period Washington has a bullpen ERA of 4.95. They are 42-35 to the over facing teams that allow 4.2 runs per game or greater. The team is 13-7 to the over behind Gore. Play LA and Washington over 8.5.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Astros at Red Sox—Hunter Brown will start for Houston. Brown appeared in 23 games delivering an ERA of 3.98 with WHIP of 1.37. The righthander fans 24.9% with 8.8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 47.4% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. James Paxton is the starter for Boston. Paxton has 20 starts with an ERA of 4.42 with WHIP of 1.43. The lefthander strikes out 16.8% with 11.5% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.8% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Boston bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 5.70. They have a -24-run differential at home. The Red Sox have lost five of seven at home. Houston has won five of six on the road. Boston is 27-30 at home with a -7.53-unit loss. Play Houston -128.
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Rangers at Yankees—Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney appeared in 23 games on the campaign producing an ERA of 3.98 with WHIP of 1.22. The lefthander fans 22.5% with 6.5% walks. Grounders sit at 33.9% with 1.17 home runs per nine innings. Marcus Stroman is the starter for New York. Stroman has 22 starts with an ERA of 4.10 with WHIP of 1.40. The righthander strikes out 17.1% with 9.7% walks. Grounders dealt at 48.6% with 1.39 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.17 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
New York in their past ten games is hitting .270 and putting up 6.2 runs per game. Texas in this period is hitting .209. Their bullpen on the road has an ERA of 5.87 where they have a -57 run differential. The Yankees have won 9 of 13 with Texas dropping 10 of 14. The Rangers are 18-35 as an underdog with a -14.05-unit loss. Play NY -142.
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Athletics at Blue Jays—JP Sears is the starter for Oakland. Sears has 23 starts on the year putting up an ERA of 4.35 with WHIP of 1.21. The lefthander strikes out 18.2% with 6.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 37.1% with 1.21 home runs per nine innings. Chris Bassitt will start for Toronto. Bassitt in 23 starts has an ERA of 3.95 with WHIP of 1.41. The veteran fans 21.9% with 8.8% walks. Ground balls dished at 40.6% with 0.90 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Toronto bullpen at home with an ERA of 5.51 where they have a -53-run differential. They bat .243 at home. The Blue Jays have lost 7 of 10. Toronto is 29-30 at home with a -6.87-unit loss. The team mark behind Bassitt is 9-14 with a -5.46-unit loss. Play Oakland +139.
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Padres at Marlins—Dylan Cease will start for San Diego. Cease in 24 starts produces an ERA of 3.40 with WHIP of 0.99. The righthander has an elite 32.4% K rate with 7.9% walks. Ground balls come in at 37.9% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. Max Meyer is the starter for Miami. Meyer has six starts with an ERA of 5.10 with WHIP of 1.30. The righty is fanning 20.5% with 7.1% walks. Grounders are 43.3% with 2.10 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
San Diego has won 16 of 18 games. The Marlins have dropped 5 of 6. In their past ten games the Padres are hitting .276 and putting up 6.3 runs per game. Miami in this period hitting .226 with a bullpen ERA of 5.06. They sit 23-39 at home with a -12.63-unit loss. The Padres are 36-23 on the road with a +13.0-unit return. Play San Diego on run line -1.5 runs at +105.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Orioles at Rays—Albert Suarez will start for Baltimore. Suarez appeared in 23 games on the season dealing an ERA of 3.66 with WHIP of 1.34. The righthander strikes out 18.7% with 8.9% walks. Grounders are 34.1% with 0.65 home runs per nine innings. Jeffrey Springs to start for Tampa Bay. Springs has two starts allowing six earned runs with three homers and four walks in 8 2/3rd innings. He returned from Tommy John surgery and posted a career ERA of 3.48 with WHIP of 1.25 striking out 328 batters in 289 1/3rd innings of work.
The Pick:
Baltimore has won 10 of 11 against the Rays. Baltimore pitching limits opponents to .221 hitting on the road where they have a +59-run differential. Tampa Bay is batting .226 at home where they have a -33-run differential. They have lost six of nine. Baltimore is 36-23 on the road with a +5.93-unit return. The Rays have dropped a 7.90-unit loss at home. Play Baltimore -107.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Reds at Brewers—Nick Lodolo is the starter for Cincinnati. Lodolo has 18 starts on the campaign putting up an ERA of 3.93 with WHIP of 1.14. The lefthander fans 24.7% with 6.7% walks. Ground ball rate of 47.7% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings. DL Hall to start for Milwaukee. Hall in four starts has an ERA of 7.71 with WHIP of 2.27. The lefthander strikes out 15.5% with 11.9% walks. Grounders served at 40.4% with 2.20 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Milwaukee in their past ten games is hitting .297 and putting up 7 runs per game. Their bullpen at home has an ERA of 3.60. The Reds bullpen in their past ten games has an ERA of 4.81. Five straight wins for the Brewers. They have 27-14 as a home favorite with a +4.46-unit return. Cincinnati is 13-23 when lined between -105 and +125 with a -8.57-unit loss. Play Milwaukee -101.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Guardians at Twins—Tanner Bibee is the starter for Cleveland. Bibee in 22 starts on the year posts an ERA of 3.48 with WHIP of 1.09. The righthander fans 26.7% with 6.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 37% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. David Festa will start for Minnesota. Festa appeared in five games with an ERA of 5.55 with WHIP of 1.27. The righty strikes out 28.8% with 5.8% walks. Grounders sit at 30.3% with 2.22 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Guardians have won seven of nine against the Twins. Their bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.80 where they have a +35-run differential. The team mark behind Bibee is 17-5 with a +8.69-unit return. Play Cleveland -102.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Braves at Rockies—Spencer Schwellenbach to start for Atlanta. Schwellenbach has 11 starts on the season dealing an ERA of 4.04 with WHIP of 1.04. The righthander fans 26.7% with 3.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 42% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings. Kyle Freeland is the starter for Colorado. Freeland in 12 starts has an ERA of 5.65 with WHIP of 1.49. The lefthander strikes out 19.6% with 6.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 40% with 1.27 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.13 does suggest a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
Braves ERA at 4.73 in their past ten games. Freeland at home has an ERA of 2.51 with WHIP of 1.05. The team is 7-5 behind him with a +5.36-unit return. Atlanta is 29-29 on the road with a -7.13-unit loss and has dropped -13.09 units as a favorite. The Rockies are 26-32 as a home underdog returning +3.19-unit return. Play Colorado +148.
Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Tigers at Giants—Keider Montero is the starter for Detroit. Montero appeared in nine games putting up an ERA of 5.62 with WHIP of 1.31. The righthander strikes out 20.3% with 6.3% walks. Ground balls dished at 38.9% with 2.17 home runs per nine innings. Hayden Birdsong is the starter for the Giants. Birdsong has seven starts with an ERA of 4.73 and WHIP of 1.39. The righty is fanning 27.9% with 12.9% walks. Ground balls come in at 44.3% with 1.67 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
San Francisco in their past ten games is hitting .231. They have a 4.03 bullpen ERA at home with the Tigers a pen ERA of 3.79 on the road. The team record behind Montero is 5-3 with a +3.55-unit return. Play Detroit +160.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LA Dodgers MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Pirates at Dodgers—Bailey Falter will start for Pittsburgh. Falter has 19 starts in the year putting up an ERA of 3.87 with WHIP of 1.19. The lefthander fans 16.5% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 35.1% with 1.20 home runs per nine innings. Tyler Glasnow will start for LA. Glasnow in 21 starts an ERA of 3.54 with WHIP of 0.95. The veteran has an elite 33.1% K rate with 6.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 47.6% with 0.99 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
LA pitching limits opponents to .226 batting at home. Pittsburgh is batting .229 against right-handed starters. The Dodgers in their past ten games are hitting .226. The Pirates bullpen on the road has an ERA of 3.93. Pittsburgh is 10-7 to the under behind Falter. Play Pittsburgh and LA under 8.5.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Phillies at Diamondbacks—Cristopher Sanchez to start for Philadelphia. Sanchez in 22 starts on the year putting up an ERA of 3.27 with WHIP of 1.26. The lefthander fans 19.1% with 6.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 58.1% with limited home run damage. Merrill Kelly to start for Arizona. Kelly has four starts producing an ERA of 2.19 with WHIP of 0.93. The righthander strikes out 22.8% with 6.5% walks. Grounders are 45.3% with 1.09 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.78 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
Arizona is batting .274 against left-handed starters. Sanchez on the road has an ERA of 4.78 with WHIP of 1.65. The Diamondbacks have won 14 of 17. The Phillies are 13-14 when lined between -140 and -110 with a -3.37-unit loss. They are 11-11 behind Sanchez with a -3.48-unit loss. Play Arizona +112.
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Pick Prediction 8/11/2024
Mets at Mariners—Luis Severino to start for New York. Severino has 22 starts on the campaign, carries an ERA of 4.06 with WHIP of 1.25. The righthander strikes out 18.6% with 8.1% walks. Grounders served at 47.4% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings. Luis Castillo is starting for Seattle. Castillo in 24 starts an ERA of 3.48 with WHIP of 1.17. The veteran has a K mark of 23.8% with 6.5% walks. Ground balls come in at 41.2% with 1.01 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Seattle is batting .203 at home and their pitching staff surrenders .207 hitting there. The Mariners bullpen at home has an ERA of 3.17. NY has been held scoreless in this series. Seattle is 39-20 to the under at home. NY is 14-10 to the under when lined at 7.5. The team is 14-8 to the under behind Castillo. Play NY and Seattle under 7.5.