Free MLB Picks For Today 5/11/2024

Free MLB Picks For Today 5/11/2024

Free MLB Picks For Today 5/11/2024

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Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Twins at Blue Jays—Simeon Woods Richardson to start for Minnesota. Woods Richardson has four starts on the campaign producing an ERA of 1.74 with WHIP of 1.06. The righthander fans 25.3% with 6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 31.6% with no homers allowed. Kevin Gausman to start for Toronto. Gausman in seven starts has an ERA of 3.78 with WHIP of 1.29. The veteran has seen his K rate drop to 21.5% with 5.6% walks. Grounders served at 43.7% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

The Twins bullpen as this series began had an ERA of 3.17 in their 18 road games. The Blue Jays bullpen at home has an ERA of 6.15. The past seven games the Blue Jays are hitting .218. The Twins have won 12 of 19 on the road. Toronto is 53-39 as a home favorite of -110 or higher the past two seasons with a -20-unit loss. Play Minnesota +142.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Diamondbacks at Orioles—Ryne Nelson to start for Arizona. Nelson has five starts in the season posting an ERA of 5.23 with WHIP of 1.60. The righthander fans 17% with 6.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.7% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings. John Means to start for Baltimore. Means in his 2024 debut allowed no earned runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings of work at Cincinnati. Means missed much of the past two seasons with an elbow injury. In 75 career appearances he has an ERA of 3.67 with WHIP of 1.05 with 326 strikeouts in 387 1/3rd innings pitched.

The Pick:

The Diamondbacks bullpen on the road has an ERA of 5.15. The Orioles are 77-54 to the run line against right-handed starters the past two seasons with a +19.5-unit return. Play Baltimore on the run line -1.5 runs at +120.

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Cubs at Pirates—Justin Steele to start for Chicago. Steele, in his first two starts on the campaign allowed one earned run with eight strikeouts in 9 1/3rd innings. He returned from a hamstring injury. The lefthander in 2023 posting an ERA of 3.05 with WHIP of 1.17 in 30 starts. He struck out 24.6% with 5% walks. Ground ball rate of 49.4% with 0.73 home runs per nine innings. Paul Skenes to make his MLB debut on Saturday. The righthander was a first-round draft pick in 2023 out of LSU. He pitched 7 2/3rd innings in the low minors in 2023. This year in Triple A he posted an ERA of 0.99 with WHIP of 0.92 strikeout out 45 with eight walks in 27 1/3rd innings.

The Pick:

As this series opened the Pirates were hitting .174 in their past seven games. Pittsburgh is 5-12 when lined at -100 to -150 this season. Chicago is now 21-12 facing right-handed starters this season. Play Chicago -106.

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Nationals at Red Sox—Jake Irvin to start for Washington. Irvin has seven starts on the year dealing an ERA of 3.72 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander is striking out 19% with 5.1% walks. Ground balls dealt at 43.3% with 0.70 home runs per nine innings. Cooper Criswell to start for Boston. Criswell appeared in five games with an ERA of 1.74 with WHIP of 1.06. The righty is fanning 19.5% with 4.9% walks. Grounders served at 44.3% with 0.87 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.59 suggests a rise in ERA based on his numbers.

The Pick:

The Red Sox in their past seven games are hitting .222 and putting up 3 runs per game. Boston bullpen on the road has an ERA of 5.20. Irvin has put up good numbers in his road starts. The Red Sox are 29-40 at home against right-handed starters the past two seasons with a -18.9-unit loss. Washington is 48-52 as a road underdog of +100 or higher with a +33.4 unit return the past two seasons. Play Washington +137.

Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Rangers at Rockies—Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney has seven starts on the campaign dealing with an ERA of 4.50 with WHIP of 1.11. The lefthander has seen his strikeouts drop to 20.5% with 6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 37% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings. Ryan Feltner to start for Colorado. Feltner in seven starts with an ERA of 5.54 with WHIP of 1.46. The righty fans 21.2% with 5.9% walks. Ground balls served at 45.8% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

As this series opened the Rangers bullpen in their first 20 games had an ERA of 5.99. The Rockies are now 27-23 at home facing a winning team the past two seasons with a +17.8-unit return. Play Colorado +140.

Part 2

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Braves at Mets—Max Fried to start for Atlanta. Fried has seven starts in the year posting an ERA of 4.23 with WHIP of 1.15. The lefthander strikes out 20.4% with 8.9% walks. Grounders dished at 67.6% with 0.94 home runs per nine innings. Christian Scott to start for New York. Scott in his MLB debut allowed one earned run with six strikeouts in 6 2/3rd innings at Tampa Bay. A fifth-round pick in 2021 out of Florida who put up strong numbers in the Minors. He had five starts in Triple A on the year with an ERA of 3.20 with WHIP of 0.72 in 25 1/3rd innings of work and striking out 36 batters.

The Pick:

The Mets bullpen at home has an ERA of 1.95 in their 20 home games. New York is hitting .260 against left handers. The Braves in their past seven games are hitting .202 going under in six of seven in this period. They are 15-6 to the under against right-handed starters and 11-3 to the under facing teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.40 or lower. New York is 60-37 to the under at home the past two seasons. Play Atlanta and New York under 7.5.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Phillies at Marlins—Taijuan Walker to start for Philadelphia. Walker has two starts in 2024 allowing nine earned runs with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3rd innings. He was sidelined with a shoulder. Last year he started 31 games with an ERA of 4.38 with WHIP of 1.31. The veteran struck out 18.8% with 9.7% walks. Ground ball rate of 44.6% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. Jesus Luzardo to start for Miami. Luzardo has five starts in 2023 carrying an ERA of 6.58 with WHIP of 1.42. The lefthander strikes out 24.1% with 11.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 35.2% with 1.73 home runs per nine innings. He returned after an elbow issue.

The Pick:

The Miami bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.27 in their 21 games, losing 16 of those games where they hit .226. The Phillies are putting up 4.8 runs per game on the road where they have won 12 of 17. The team record behind Walker is 54-33 when lined at -100 to -150 the past two seasons with a +12.9-unit return. The Phillies are 50-14 facing teams getting outscored by 1 or greater runs the past three seasons with a +26.7 unit return. Play Philadelphia -125.

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Yankees at Rays—Nestor Cortes to start for New York. Cortes has eight starts on the year posting an ERA of 3.72 with WHIP of 1.03. The lefthander strikes out 23.6% with 4.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 31.2% with 0.93 home runs per nine innings. Zack Littell to start for Tampa Bay. Littell in seven starts has an ERA of 3.00 with WHIP of 1.31. The righthander has a K rate of 25.6% with 3% walks. Ground balls come in at 34.5% with 0.69 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

The Yankees bullpen on the road has an ERA of 1.72 in their 21 games where they have won 13. Tampa Bay bullpen at home has an ERA of 4.41 in their 24 games. New York is putting up 5.2 runs per game against right-handed starters winning 29 of those games. Play New York -118.

Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Astros at Tigers—Cristian Javier to start for Houston. Javier has four starts on the current season producing an ERA of 1.54 with WHIP of 1.11. The righthander strikes out 18.9% with 11.6% walks. Grounders sit at 24.6% with limited home run damage. Tarik Skubal will start for Detroit. Skubal in seven starts has an ERA of 1.90 with WHIP of 0.77. The lefthander has an elite K rate of 32.7% with 3.7% walks. Grounders sit at 42.2% with 0.63 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

The Tigers are batting .219 against right-handed starters, losing 17 of their 30 against them. The Astros are batting .267 against left-handed starters putting up 4.6 runs per game. The team record behind Javier is 9-1 as a road underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons with a +9.5 unit return. The Astros are 28-12 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 the past two seasons with a +18 unit return. Play Houston +114.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Guardians at White Sox—Triston McKenzie to start for Cleveland. McKenzie has seven starts on the year delivers an ERA of 3.97 with WHIP of 1.44. The righthander strikes out 20.1% with 14.1% walks. Ground balls dealt at 30.9% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.15 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers. Mike Clevinger to start for Chicago. Clevinger in his 2024 debut allowed three earned runs with four walks and six hits in two innings at Tampa Bay. He was a free agent signee on April 2nd. Last year he had 24 starts with an ERA of 3.77 and WHIP of 1.23. The veteran fanned 20% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 30.9% with 1.10 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

The Guardians bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.90 in their 21 games. The White Sox are batting .219 against right-handed starters. Cleveland in their past seven games are hitting .215. Clevinger is 51-31 to the under in his career. The Guardians are 41-19 to the under in divisional games the past two seasons. Play Cleveland and Chicago under 8.

St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Cardinals at Brewers—Kyle Gibson to start for St Louis. Gibson has seven starts on the campaign posting an ERA of 3.68 with WHIP of 1.18. The veteran is striking out 18.5% with 9% walks. Ground balls sit at 47.7% with 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Freddy Peralta to start for Milwaukee. Peralta in seven starts has an ERA of 3.49 with WHIP of 0.98. The righthander has an elite K rate of 32.3% with 9.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 43.4% with 0.93 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

The Brewers are batting .267 against right-handed starters putting up 5.5 runs per game. St Louis in their five divisional games is batting .173 and batting .194 in their past seven games. Play Milwaukee on run line -1.5 runs at +123.

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Reds at Giants—Nick Lodolo to start for Cincinnati. Lodolo in five starts on the campaign delivers an ERA of 2.79 with WHIP of 0.93. The lefthander strikes out 32.2% with 7% walks. Ground ball rate of 44.6% with 0.62 home runs per nine innings. Mason Black to start for San Francisco. Black, in his MLB debut allowed five earned runs with three walks and four strikeouts in 4 1/3rd innings at Philadelphia. He was a third-round pick in 2021 out of Lehigh who put up great numbers in the minors. He has six starts in Triple A this season with an ERA of 1.01 and WHIP of 0.92 striking out 29 batters in 26 2/3rd innings.

The Pick:

The Reds in their past seven games are hitting .187 and putting up 2.1 runs per game. The Giants are averaging 3.3 runs per game at home going under in 12 of 16. They are putting up 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starters. San Francisco is 10-2 to the under at home facing teams that average seven or greater strikeouts per game. Play Cincinnati and San Francisco under 7.5.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Dodgers at Padres—James Paxton to start for Los Angeles. Paxton has six starts on the year providing an ERA of 3.06 with WHIP of 1.55. The lefthander has seen his K rate drop to 12.9% with 17.3% walks. Grounders dished at 36.8% with 0.84 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.47 does suggest a rising ERA based on his numbers. Matt Waldron to start for San Diego. Waldron in seven starts carries an ERA of 5.82 with WHIP of 1.56. The righthander fans 18.6% with 8.3% walks. Grounders sit at 37.5% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

The Dodgers bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.32 in their 17 games. Los Angeles is hitting .278 against right-handed starters putting up 6 runs per game. San Diego is putting up 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starters. San Diego is 8-23 at home when lined at +125 and -125 the past two seasons with a -17.9-unit loss. They are 3-10 in home night games on the year with a -8.1-unit loss. Play Los Angeles -143.

Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Royals at Angels—Cole Ragans to start for Kansas City. Ragans in eight starts on the season delivers an ERA of 3.38 with WHIP of 1.27. The lefthander strikes out 29.8% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls sit at 42.2% with limited home run damage. Tyler Anderson will start for Los Angeles. Anderson has seven starts with an ERA of 2.74 with WHIP of 1.13. The lefty fans 18.4% with 10.3% walks. Ground balls come in at 34.1% with 1.27 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

The Angels bullpen at home has an ERA of 6.75 where they have lost 14 of 17. They are batting .217 in their past seven games. The Royals are putting up 4.9 runs per game against left-handed starters. KC is 11-1 facing teams with a .380- or lower-win percentage on the season with a +9.7 unit return and 17-5 facing an AL team averaging 4.4 runs per game or fewer on the year. Play Kansas City -144.

Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/11/2024

Athletics at Mariners—Joey Estes to start for Oakland. Estes makes his 2024 debut. He started two games last year allowing eight earned runs with four homers in 10 innings. The righthander was a 16th round pick in 2019 that struggled in Triple A last year. He has six starts in Triple A this season allowing 19 earned runs with 10 walks in 28 1/3rd innings. Bryce Miller to start for Seattle. Miller in seven starts has an ERA of 2.61 with WHIP of 0.92. The righty fans 26.6% with 8.2% walks. Grounders dealt at 37.9% with 1.52 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick:

The Athletics bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.44 in their 16 games. Seattle is hitting .211 at home in their 20 home games where they have averaged 3.3 runs per game. The Athletics are 8-9 on the road where they have returned +6.6 units. Oakland is 7-4 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 this year with a +10.3-unit return. Play Oakland +187.

Free MLB Picks For Today 5/11/2024

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