Free MLB Picks For Today 4/11/2024
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New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/11/2024
Mets at Braves—Luis Severino to start for New York. Severino had 19 appearances in 2023 with an ERA of 6.65 with WHIP of 1.65. The righthander struck out 28.9% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls served at 42.2% with 2.32 home runs per nine innings. In two starts on the campaign he allowed eight runs, four earned, with thirteen strikeouts in 10 innings. Allan Winans to start for Atlanta. Winand had six starts in 2023 with an ERA of 5.29 with WHIP of 1.39. The righty stuck out 24.1% with 5.7% walks. Grounders sat at 45.4% with 1.39 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Atlanta is 9-1 to the over facing a team that is getting outscored by 1 or greater runs per game the past two seasons. Atlanta is putting up 8.1 runs per game and batting .341 in the seven games against right-handed starters this season. The Mets bullpen has struggled in their five road games with an ERA over five. Play New York and Atlanta over 9.5.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/11/2024
Brewers at Reds—Freddy Peralta to start for Milwaukee. Peralta in 30 starts in 2023 dealt an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.12. The veteran fanned 30.9% with 7.9% walks. Ground balls sat at 41.7% with 1.41 home runs per nine innings. Peralta in two starts on the year allowed four earned runs with fifteen strikeouts in 11 2/3rd innings. Nick Martinez will start for Cincinnati. Martinez had 63 appearances a year ago carrying an ERA of 3.43 with WHIP of 1.26. The righty fanned 23% with 8.7% walks. Grounders served at 53.8% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. In two starts this year he allowed eight earned runs with nine strikeouts in 10 innings.
The Pick:
The Brewers are hitting .286 and putting up 6.1 runs per game against the nine righthanded starters they have faced. The Reds are putting up 6.2 runs per game in the eight home games they have played. Peralta 31-13 to the over when lined at -100 to -150. The Reds are 13-3 to the over when facing a team at home who has a .430 or higher slugging percentage. Both bullpens have had struggles. Play Milwaukee and Cincinnati over 9.
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/11/2024
Twins at Tigers—Pablo Lopez to start for Minnesota. Lopez made 32 starts last year posting an ERA of 3.66 with WHIP of 1.15. The righthander had a K rate of 29.2% with 6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 45.2% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. His two starts on the year saw him allow five runs with nine strikeouts in 12 2/3rd innings. Tarik Skubal to start for Detroit. Skubal had 15 stars in 2023 with an ERA of 2.80 and WHIP of 0.90. The lefty fanned 32.9% with 4.5% walks. Grounders served at 51.6% with limited home run damage. He has two starts on the campaign allowing four earned runs with 15 strikeouts in 12 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
The Tigers are 14-35 at home facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or lower the past three seasons with a -20.5-unit loss. The Twins are getting elite work from their bullpen. The Tigers have hit .208 in their three home games. Play Minnesota +113.
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/11/2024
Astros at Royals—Hunter Brown is the starter for Houston. Brown appeared in 31 games last year posting an ERA of 5.09 with WHIP of 1.36. The righthander had a K rate of 26.8% with 8.3% walks. Grounders sat at 52.4% with 1.50 home runs per nine innings. He has started two games on the year allowing six runs with six walks in seven innings. Brady Singer will start for Kansas City. Singer had 29 starts a year ago with an ERA of 5.52 with WHIP of 1.45. The righty struck out 18.9% with 7% walks. Ground ball rate of 49.5% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings. In two starts on the year he allowed one run with fourteen strikeouts in 13 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Team record behind Singer 28-22 when facing a team that averages 7 or more strikeouts per game the past three seasons with a +11.7-unit return. The team is also 22-11 behind Singer at home the past three seasons with a +13.4-unit return. Astros have hit just .225 in their first five games on the road. KC bullpen has pitched well at home. Play Kansas City +111.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/11/2024
Orioles at Red Sox—Grayson Rodriguez to start for Baltimore. Rodriguez in 23 starts last year carried an ERA of 4.35 with WHIP of 1.34. The righthander struck out 25% with 8.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 47.2% with 1.18 home runs per nine innings. He has started two games on the year allowing three runs, all homers, with sixteen strikeouts in 12 1/3rd innings. Garrett Whitlock to start for Boston. Whitlock appeared in 22 games in 2023 posting an ERA of 5.15 with WHIP of 1.33. The righty fanned 23.7% with 4.3% walks. Grounders served at 44.2% with 1.63 home runs per nine innings. He has two starts on the year allowing one run with 12 strikeouts in 9 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Baltimore is 26-8 as a road favorite of -110 or higher the past two seasons with a +16.1-unit return. Boston is 24-36 facing righthanded starters at home the past two seasons with a -19.5-unit loss. The Orioles in their five games against right-handed starters are hitting .282 and putting up 6.4 runs per game. They have put up great bullpen numbers. Play Baltimore -108.