Free MLB Picks For Today 4/3/2024
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Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Royals at Orioles—Cole Ragans to start for Kansas City. Ragans appeared in 29 games in 2023 dealing an ERA of 3.47 with WHIP of 1.16. The lefthander struck out 28.8% with 10.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 44% with 0.66 home runs per nine innings. In his first start this season Ragans allowed two earned runs with nine strikeouts in five innings at home to the Twins. Corbin Burnes to start for Baltimore. Burnes had 32 starts last year dealing with an ERA of 3.39 with WHIP of 1.07. The veteran fanned 25.5% with 8.4% walks. Ground balls sat at 44.1% with 1.02 home runs per nine innings. Burns faced the Angels in his opening game and allowed one earned run with 11 strikeouts in six innings.
The Pick:
Baltimore has won eight of ten against the Royals with seven of those wins by two runs or greater. The Orioles are 41-24 on the road line facing an AL team hitting .255 or lower with a +15.5-unit return. KC bullpen has poorly performed the season. Play Baltimore on run line -1.5 runs at +135.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Reds at Phillies—Frankie Montas to start for Philadelphia. Montas missed most of last year with shoulder surgery. He has a career ERA of 3.86 with 9.25 strikeouts and 2.96 walks. per nine innings. In his first start he allowed no runs with four strikeouts in six innings at home to Washington. Zack Wheeler to start for Philadelphia. Wheeler started 32 games in 2023 producing an ERA of 3.61 with WHIP of 1.08. The righthander fanned 26.9% with 5% walks. Ground balls sat at 41.2% with 0.94 home runs per nine innings. He allowed no runs with five strikeouts in six innings at home to Atlanta in his first start this season.
The Pick:
In the Reds two starts against righthanders they hit .343 and averaged 7 runs per game. Phillies bullpen has an ERA over 9. The Reds are 20-16 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 with a +12.7-unit return. Play Cincinnati +166.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Angels at Marlins—Patrick Sandoval to start for Los Angeles. Sandoval made 28 starts last season carrying an ERA of 4.11 with WHIP of 1.51. The lefthander struck out 19.6% with 11.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 50% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings. In his first start the lefthander allowed three earned runs with two walks in 1 2/3rd innings at Baltimore. A.J. Puk to start for Miami. Puk had 58 appearances in 2023 dealing with an ERA of 3.97 and WHIP of 1.18. The lefthander fanned 32.2% with 5.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 44.2% with 1.59 home runs per nine innings. In his season opener he allowed four earned runs with six walks in two innings at home to Pittsburgh.
The Pick:
Team record behind Sandoval is 5-16 when pitching on 5-6 days’ rest with a -12.4-unit return. Los Angeles is hitting .189 in day games this season. Play Miami -114.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Rangers at Rays—Nathan Eovaldi to start for Texas. Eovaldi started 25 games last season with an ERA of 3.63 and WHIP of 1.14. The veteran struck out 22.9% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls sat at 51% with 0.94 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Cubs at home in his season opener surrendering two earned runs with three strikeouts in six innings. Aaron Civale to start for Tampa Bay. Civale in 23 starts in 2023 had an ERA of 3.46 with WHIP of 1.16. The righthander fanned 23% with 6.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 39% with 0.88 home runs per nine innings. He opened at home against Toronto and allowed one earned run with six strikeouts in six innings.
The Pick:
Tampa Bay is batting .203 against righthanded starters. The Rangers are pounding righthanded starters by hitting .333. Their bullpen has performed well with Rays bullpen struggling early this season. Play Texas +104.
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Twins at Brewers—Chris Paddack to start for Minnesota. Paddack played sparingly the past two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. The righthander in 68 career appearances had an ERA of 4.21 with WHIP of 1.14 striking out 313 batters with 68 walks in 335 1/3rd innings. Joe Ross to start for Milwaukee. Ross last pitching in MLB in 2021. He has a career ERA of 4.26 with WHIP of 1.33 in 443 1/3rd innings of work striking out 403 batters with 141 walks. He underwent two Tommy John surgeries.
The Pick:
There Minnesota is batting .175 against righthanders. The Brewers have hit well to start the season and are batting .325 against righthanders. The Brewers are 28-12 at home when lined by -100 to -150 at home with +12.7-unit return. Play Milwaukee -105.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Braves at White Sox—Spencer Strider to start for Atlanta. Strider had 32 starts in 2023 delivering an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.09. The righthander struck out 36.8% with 7.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 34.1% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. His first start of the year came against the Phillies on the road and gave up two earned runs with two walks in five innings. Nick Nastrini expected to start for Chicago. Nastrini is expected to make his MLB debut on Wednesday. The righthander had a strong spring. He spent 2023 in three levels of the minors with good strikeout numbers.
The Pick:
The Braves are pounding righthanders this season by hitting .368. The White Sox are batting only .168 on the year. Would prefer to back Strider early in the season with a possible fade late in the year. Play Atlanta on run line -1.5.
Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Red Sox at Athletics—Nick Pivetta to start for Boston. Pivetta appeared in 38 games last year dealing an ERA of 4.04 with WHIP of 1.12. The veteran fanned 31.2% a career high, with 8.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 36.4% with 1.45 home runs per nine innings. In his opening start this year the righthander allowed one earned run with ten strikeouts in six innings at Seattle. Ross Stripling to start for Oakland. Stripling had 22 appearances in 2023 posting an ERA of 7.20 with WHIP of 1.80. The righty struck out 18.4% with 4.2% walks. Ground balls dished at 44% with 2.02 home runs per nine innings. Stripling in his first start of the season allowed four earned runs with six strikeouts in five innings at home to Cleveland.
The Pick:
Oakland 3-30 facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 the past two seasons with a -25.3-unit loss. The Red Sox bullpen sits with an ERA of 2.20 and WHIP of 0.91. Oakland is batting .185 against righthanders. Play Boston -148.
New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Yankees at Diamondbacks—Carlos Rodon to start for New York. Rodon started fourteen games last season with an ERA of 6.85 and WHIP of 1.45. The lefthander fanned 22.4% with 9.8% walks. Ground balls sat at 27.1% with 2.10 home runs per nine innings. He opened at Houston and allowed one earned run with four strikeouts in 4 1/3rd innings. Merrill Kelly will start for Arizona. Kelly in 30 starts last season posted an ERA of 3.29 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander struck out 25.9% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls served at 45.2% with 1.01 home runs per nine innings. Kelly in his 2023 opener faced Colorado at home and allowed one earned run with eight strikeouts in 6 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Kelly 12-2 to the under at home facing teams that average seven or more strikeouts per game the past two seasons. Both bullpens are in outstanding form. Play New York and Arizona under 8.5.
St Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Cardinals at Padres—Zack Thompson to start for ST Louis. Thompson had 25 appearances last season delivering an ERA of 4.48 with WHIP of 1.42. The lefthander fanned 25.1% with 8.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 44% with 1.09 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Dodgers in his opening start allowed five earned runs with three homers in 5 1/3rd innings. Joe Musgrove to start for San Diego. Musgrove in 2023 carried an ERA of 3.05 with WHIP of 1.14 in 17 starts. The righthander struck out 24.3% with 5.3% walks. Ground ball rate of 45% with 0.92 home runs per nine innings. In his first two starts of the season he allowed nine earned runs with five strikeouts in 9 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Team record behind Musgrove at home is 9-17 with a -13.4-unit loss. San Diego is 33-38 when lined at -100 to -150 the past two seasons with a -14.4-unit loss. The Padres bullpen has an ERA over 7. Play St Louis +130.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Guardians at Mariners—Logan Allen to start for Cleveland. Allen made 24 starts in 2023 with an ERA of 3.81 and WHIP of 1.40. The lefthander had a K rate of 22.2% with 8.9% walks. Ground balls served at 42.7% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings. He opened at Oakland this year and gave up three earned runs with two homers and three strikeouts in five innings. George Kirby to start for Seattle. Kirby saw 31 starts last year delivering an ERA of 3.35 with WHIP of 1.04. The righthander fanned 22.7% with 2.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 44.2% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. He opened with Boston at home and surrendered no runs with eight strikeouts in 6 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Both bullpens have been in great form to start the season. The Mariners are hitting only .189 in their ballpark this season. Seattle is 37-20 to the under in Day Games the past three seasons. Cleveland is 59-44 to the under against righthanded starters the past two seasons. Play Cleveland and Seattle under 7.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Pirates at Nationals—Mitch Keller to start for Pittsburgh. Keller in 32 starts last year dialed an ERA of 4.21 with WHIP of 1.25. The righthander struck out 25.5% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 43.7% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings. Keller in his season opener allowed four earned runs with three strikeouts in 5 2/3rd innings at Miami. Trevor Williams to start for Washington. Williams had 30 starts in 2023 with an ERA of 5.55 and WHIP of 1.60. The veteran righty saw his strikeout rate drop to 16.8% with 8% walks. Ground balls sat at 39.5% with 2.12 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Pittsburgh is hitting .302 and putting up runs. Nationals bullpen has been hammered early this season. The Pirates have gone over in every game this season. Play Pittsburgh and Washington over 9.
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Tigers at Mets—With the rainout on Tuesday the pitching matchups remain the same for Wednesday. Casey Mize to start for Detroit. Mize last pitched in 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. He comes off a good spring. In 39 career starts the righthander had an ERA of 4.29 with WHIP of 1.21 striking out 148 batters with 56 walks in 188 2/3rd innings of work. Adrian Houser to start for New York. Houser appeared in 23 games with Milwaukee last season producing an ERA of 4.12 with WHIP of 1.39. The veteran struck out 20% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 46.7% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Detroit bullpen has been outstanding. New York in their three games against righthanded starters are hitting only .137. The Mets are 22-28 as a favorite of -125 to -175 with a -18.2-unit loss the past two seasons. Play Detroit +115.
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Rockies at Cubs—Cal Quantrill to start for Colorado. Quantrill had 19 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 5.24 with WHIP of 1.46. The righthander saw his strikeouts drop to 13.1% with 7.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 40.8% with 0.99 home runs per nine innings. He opened the season at Arizona and gave up five earned runs with one strikeout in five innings. Drew Smyly to start for Chicago. Smyly had 41 appearances last season posting an ERA of 5.00 with WHIP of 1.43. The lefthander had a K rate of 22.5% with 8.9% walks. Ground balls sat at 34.8% with 1.64 home runs per nine innings. He has two appearances this year and allowed one earned run with two walks in 2 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Chicago is hitting the ball well in this series. The Rockies continue their struggles hitting on the road. Play Chicago on the run line -1.5 runs at +128.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Blue Jays at Astros—Chris Bassitt to start for Toronto. Bassitt started 33 games last season with an ERA of 3.60 and WHIP of 1.17. The righthander struck out 22.5% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls delivered at 42.3% with 1.26 home runs per nine innings. He opened at Tampa Bay and allowed four earned runs with six strikeouts in five innings. Cristian Javier to start for Houston. Javier had 31 starts in 2023 dealing an ERA of 4.56 with WHIP of 1.27. The righty fanned 23.1% with 9% walks. Ground ball rate of 25.6% with 1.39 home runs per nine innings. He opened at home against the Yankees and gave up no earned runs with six strikeouts in six innings.
The Pick:
The team record behind Bassitt 27-7 against losing teams with a +20-unit return. Houston 37-45 as a home favorite of -110 or higher with a -36.8-unit loss the past two seasons. The Astros bullpen has been pounded this season. Play Toronto +127.
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/3/2024
Giants at Padres—Kyle Harrison to start for San Francisco. Harrison in seven starts in 2023 had an ERA of 4.15 with WHIP of 1.15. The lefthander had a K rate of 23.8% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 26.8% with 2.08 home runs per nine innings. In his first start on the campaign, he allowed two home runs with five strikeouts in six innings. Tyler Glasnow to start for Los Angeles. Glasnow had 21 starts a season ago with an ERA of 3.53 with WHIP of 1.08. The veteran struck out 33.4% with 7.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 51.2% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. In two starts this season Glasnow allowed three earned runs with eight strikeouts in 11 innings.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is 36-20 to the over facing teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher the past two seasons. They are 29-16 to the over facing left-handed starters. Play San Francisco and Los Angeles over 8.5.