Free MLB Picks For Today 3/31/2024
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Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Braves at Phillies—Chris Sale to start for Atlanta. Sale had 20 starts in 2023 dealing an ERA of 4.30 with WHIP of 1.13. The veteran struck out 29.4% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls served at 37.3% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings. Rangers Suarez to start for Philadelphia. Suarez in 22 starts last year dealt an ERA of 4.18 with WHIP of 1.32. The lefthander fanned 22% with 8.9% walks. Ground balls served at 48.5% with limited home run damage. Atlanta has won the first two in this series with their 12-4 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
Team record behind Suarez 16-9 as an underdog of +100 or higher the past three seasons with a +13.4 unit return. Suarez in his past three starts against the Braves allowed two earned runs in 14 1/3rd innings. Play Philadelphia +122.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Angels at Orioles—Reid Detmers to start for Los Angeles. Detmers in 28 starts a season ago put up an ERA of 4.48 with WHIP of 1.35. The righthander had a K rate of 26.1% with 9.3% walks. Ground balls sat at 36.7% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings. Tyler Wells will start for Baltimore. Wells appeared in 25 games in 2023 with an ERA of 3.64 and WHIP of 0.99. The fourth year righty struck out 24.9% with 7.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 32.3% with 1.90 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.98 suggested a higher ERA based on his numbers. The Orioles have won the first two in this series against the Angels with the 13-4 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
Baltimore has won eight of ten against the Angels with seven of those wins by two runs or greater. Orioles have put up 24 runs in this series and the Angels 7. Los Angeles is 28-12 to the over when lined as an underdog between +125 and +175. Play Los Angeles and Baltimore over 8.5.
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Nationals at Reds—Jake Irvin to start for Washington. Irvin started 24 games last year posting an ERA of 4.61 with WHIP of 1.42. The second year righty struck out 18.7% with 10.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 42.8% with 1.49 home runs per nine innings. His FIP was 5.30 which suggests a rising ERA based on form. Nick Martinez to start for Cincinnati. Martinez appeared in 63 games in 2023 dealing an ERA of 3.43 with WHIP of 1.26. The righthander fanned 23% with 8.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 53.8% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. The Nationals evened this series at 1-1 with the 7-6 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
Washington is 29-34 as a road underdog of +150 or greater the past two seasons with a +22.8 net rating. Nationals have won four of five against the Reds. Martinez has been bothered by a rib and oblique issue in the spring. Play Washington +151.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Blue Jays at Rays—Kevin Gausman to start for Toronto. Gausman started 31 games in 2023 producing an ERA of 3.16 with WHIP of 1.18. The veteran had an elite strikeout rate of 31.1% with 7.2% walks. Ground balls sat at 42.6% with 0.92 home runs per nine innings. Tyler Alexander to put in bulk innings for Tampa Bay. Alexander appeared in 25 games last season putting up an ERA of 4.50 with WHIP of 1.11. The lefthander struck out 24.3% with 2.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 32% with 1.65 home runs per nine innings. Tampa Bay has won two of three in this series after their 5-1 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
Gausman has been a good road pitching the previous two seasons combining for an ERA of 27.6 with WHIP of 1.14. Prefer the Blue Jays bats. Play Toronto +105.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Pirates at Marlins—Bailey Falter the starter for Pittsburgh. Falter in 18 appearances last year dealt an ERA of 5.36 with WHIP of 1.41. The fourth year lefty fanned 17.3% with 5.8% walks. Grounders served at 40.2% with 1.90 home runs per nine innings. Trevor Rogers to start for Miami. Rogers had four starts in an injury laden season with an ERA of 4.00 and WHIP of 1.22. The lefthander has a career 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings with 2.92 walks per nine. He allowed 0.88 home runs per nine innings. Pittsburgh has won the first three in this series against the Marlins.
The Pick:
Team record behind Rogers in Day Games is 1-11 with -10.6 unit loss and 6-21 the past three seasons with a -17 unit loss. Falter pitched well in his past two starts against the Marlins. Play Pittsburgh +113.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Brewers at Mets—Colin Rea to start for Milwaukee. Rea appeared in 26 games in 2023 dealing an ERA of 4.55 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander struck out 21.3% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls sat at 43.8% with 1.66 home runs per nine innings. Tylor Megill will start for New York. Megill had 25 starts last year with an ERA of 4.70 and WHIP of 1.58. The righty fanned 18.5% with 10.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 43.9% with 1.28 home runs per nine innings. Milwaukee has won both games in this series after their 7-6 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
Milwaukee won nine of ten against New York. High contact and control the concern for Megill. Rea faced the Mets last year allowing one earned run in 6 1/3rd innings. Milwaukee +12.2 units as a road underdog the past two seasons. Play Milwaukee +120.
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Twins at Royals—Bailey Ober will start for Minnesota. Ober started 26 games last season producing an ERA of 3.43 with WHIP of 1.07. The fourth year righthander had a K rate of 25.3% with 5% walks. Grounders came in at 34.3% with 1.37 home runs per nine innings. Brady Singer to start for Kansas City. Singer had 29 starts in 2023 with an ERA of 5.52 and WHIP of 1.45. The righty fanned 18.9% with 7% walks. Ground balls dished at 49.5% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings. Minnesota has won both games of this series after their 5-1 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
Kansas City is 12-28 with -15.7-unit loss when lined at +125 to -125. Their bats have been cold to start the season. Singer’s close to last season was horrific. Play Minnesota -124.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Tigers at White Sox—Jack Flaherty to start for Detroit. Flaherty in 29 appearances in 2023 dealt an ERA of 4.99 with WHIP of 1.58. The veteran struck out 22.8% with 10.2% walks. Ground balls came in at 42.7% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. Erick Fedde will start for Chicago. Fedde started 27 games last year delivering an ERA of 5.81 with WHIP of 1.63. The righty fanned 16.4% with 10.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.9% with 1.49 home runs per nine innings. Detroit has won both games of this series after their 7-6 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
The Tigers have won seven of eight against the White Sox. Detroit is 17-4 as a road favorite of -100 to -150 the past three seasons with a +11.7 unit return. Chicago is 5-24 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 the past two seasons with a -18.9 unit loss. Play Detroit -155.
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Yankees at Astros—Clarke Schmidt to start for New York. Schmidt in 33 appearances last year delivered an ERA of 4.64 with WHIP of 1.35. The righthander had a strikeout mark of 21.5% with 6.6% walks. Ground balls were 43.8% with 1.36 home runs per nine innings. J.P. France starts for Houston. France in his rookie campaign worked 24 games with an ERA of 3.83 and WHIP of 1.36. The righty struck out 17.4% with 8.1% walks. Grounders came in at 42.8% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings. His FIP was 4.66 suggestion a rising ERA based on these numbers. New York has won the first three of this series after their 5-3 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
New York has won six straight against Houston. Houston 14-29 as a home favorite of -100 to -150 with a -23.1 unit loss. France high contact the issue against this Yankees lineup. Play New York +115.
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Cubs at Rangers—Jordan Wicks to start for Chicago. Wicks in his rookie campaign started seven games with an ERA of 4.41 and WHIP of 1.27. The lefthander fanned 16.3% with 7.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 46.8% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings. Jon Gray to start for Texas. Gray in 29 starts last year dealt an ERA of 4.12 with WHIP of 1.29. The veteran saw his strikeouts drop to 21.6% with 8.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 40% with 1.26 home runs per nine innings. Texas has won both games of this series after their 11-2 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
Chicago is 18-6 to the over against the American League. Texas is 41-23 to the over as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the past two seasons with a +15.5-unit return. Wicks high contact a concern against this Rangers lineup. Play Chicago and Texas over 9.5.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Guardians at Athletics—Carlos Carrasco to start for Cleveland. Carrasco in 20 starts in 2023 dealt an ERA of 6.80 with WHIP of 1.70. The righthander saw his strikeout rate plummet to 15.8% with 9.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 45% with 1.80 home runs per nine innings. Paul Blackburn to start for Oakland. Blackburn in 21 appearances last year carried an ERA of 4.43 with WHIP of 1.54. The veteran struck out 22.4% with 9.3% walks. Ground balls sat at 41.3% with 0.95 home runs per nine innings. Cleveland has won the first three in this series after their 12-3 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
The Athletics are 14-53 in Day Games with a -30.5-unit loss. Carrasco during his career +20.5 unit return as a road favorite of -110 or higher. Cleveland has won nine of ten against the Athletics. Blackburn’s allowed too many baserunners the past season. The bullpen is a massive concern for the Athletics. Play Cleveland -113.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Red Sox at Mariners—Garrett Whitlock to start for Boston. Whitlock in three appearances last season had an ERA of 5.15 with WHIP of 1.33. The righty struck out 23.7% with 4.3% walks. Ground balls came in at 44.2% with 1.63 home runs per nine innings. His FIP was 4.27 suggesting a drop in ERA based on his numbers. Bryce Miller to start for Seattle. Miller, in his rookie campaign started 25 games with an ERA of 4.32 and WHIP of 1.14. The righthander fanned 22.2% with 4.8% walks. Ground balls sat at 33.5% with 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Seattle has won two of three in this series with the 4-3 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
Boston pounded Miller for six earned runs in 5 /23rd innings last year. The Red Sox are 22-19 with a +12.8 unit return when as +125 to +175 underdog. The Mariners have not hit well at home to start this season. Play Boston +133.
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Giants at Padres—Daulton Jefferies expected to start for San Francisco. The righthander had been sidelined with Tommy John surgery. In limited time in the Majors with Athletics he had a career ERA of 5.75 with WHIP of 1.35. He averaged just 5.91 strikeouts per nine innings. Michael King to start for San Diego. King appeared in 49 games with the Yankees last year posting an ERA of 2.75 with WHIP of 1.15. The righty struck out 29.5% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls sat at 42.8% with 0.86 home runs per nine innings. He worked 3 1/3rd innings in relief in Korea against the Dodgers and allowed three earned runs with three walks in 3 1/3rd innings. San Francisco has won two of three in this series after their 9-6 win on Saturday.
The Pick:
We could see a lot of bullpen work from both sides again on Sunday. These bullpens have been pounded. These lineups are hitting. Play San Francisco and San Diego over 8.5.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Rockies at Diamondbacks—Ryan Feltner to start for Colorado. Feltner in 10 starts last season had an ERA of 5.82 with WHIP of 1.68. The righthander fanned 18.9% with 13.9% walks. Ground balls dished at 43.6% with limited home run damage. Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona. Pfaadt appeared in 19 games in 2023 produced an ERA of 5.72 with WHIP of 1.41. The second year righty struck out 22.3% with 6.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 32.3% with 2.06 home runs per nine innings. Rockies earned the 9-4 win at Arizona on Saturday and have lost two of three in this series.
The Pick:
Feltner in two starts against the Diamondbacks allowed ten runs in seven innings. The high contact and walk rate are the concern. Pfaadt pitched well down the stretch last year. Play Arizona on run line -1.5 runs at -106.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/31/2024
Cardinals at Dodgers—Steven Matz will start for St Louis. Matz in 25 appearances last year dealt an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.33. The veteran lefty struck out 21.8% with 7.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 44.6% with 0.94 home runs per nine innings. Gavin Stone to start for Los Angeles. Stone appeared in eight games last year with an ERA of 9.00 and WHIP of 1.90. The righty fanned 14.5% with 8.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 45.5% with 2.32 home runs per nine innings. St Louis wins in extra innings on Saturday 6-5. LA has won two of three in this series.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is 29-16 to the over against left-handed starters. Stone struggled to close last season. Matz is not expected to go very far here, and the bullpen will get a lot of work. Matz road splits have been poor the past few seasons. Play Los Angeles and St Louis over 9.