New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4)
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs 12/16/23 – The New Mexico State Aggies face off against the Fresno State Bulldogs in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, December 16th. This late-season NCAAF clash sees two teams in good form match up for bragging rights and momentum going into the offseason. With conference championship games taking center stage, this is one of the top NCAAF picks of the day.
The Aggies enter this game on a hot streak, having won 8 of their last 9 contests. Led by quarterback Diego Pavia and running back Star Thomas, New Mexico State boasts a balanced offensive attack that is averaging over 30 points per game. However, the Aggies defense has been vulnerable at times, giving up 26 points on average.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have won 16 of their last 20 games behind the arm of quarterback Mikey Keene. Keene has thrown for over 2500 yards and 21 touchdowns this season. His top targets, Erik Brooks and Zeke Burnett, each have over 550 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. The Bulldogs can light up the scoreboard, averaging 33 points per game. Defensively, they have held opponents to 22 points on average.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Game Info
| When: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 5:45 PM ET |
| Where: | University Stadium |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Stream: | SofaScore |
Diego Pavia QB vs. Mikey Keene QB
Diego Pavia has put together an outstanding junior campaign, completing 61.6% of his passes for 2915 yards, 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He has shown exceptional decision-making abilities and excels at keeping plays alive with his mobility. However, he will need to avoid Fresno State’s pass rush, which has 19 sacks on the year. If Pavia can distribute the ball efficiently and avoid turnovers, he can guide the Aggies offense up and down the field.
On the other side, Mikey Keene pilots a prolific Bulldogs passing attack that averages 272 yards per game through the air. The sophomore displays good accuracy, completing 65.8% of his throws this season. He has a 21/9 TD/INT ratio and has taken fewer sacks than Pavia. Keene prefers a quick-hitting passing game, which could work well against New Mexico State’s suspect secondary. But he will need to remain patient and take care of the football.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: New Mexico State Aggies -165, Total Odds: 51
The betting odds tilt slightly in favor of the New Mexico State Aggies, who are at -165 on the moneyline with a -3.5 point spread. The total for the game is set at 51, offering a balanced view of both teams’ offensive capabilities.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends
New Mexico State is an outstanding 10-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 contests. They have been underestimated by oddsmakers for much of the season. Additionally, with the total going UNDER in 9 of their previous 12 matchups, games have tended to be lower-scoring. This bodes well for their stout rushing attack and bend-but-don’t break defense.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends
Meanwhile, Fresno State has struggled against the number, going 1-7 ATS over their last 8 outings. Road games have given the Bulldogs difficulty, as they’ve gone 1-6 ATS away from home stadium. However, with the total going OVER in 4 of their previous 6 games, Fresno State games have been relatively high-scoring. Their uptempo passing offense could clash with New Mexico State’s porous pass defense.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs 12/16/23 Betting Picks
Based on the analysis and trends, this game appears poised for a closely contested battle. The Aggies’ defensive prowess and ability to control the game tempo might counteract the Bulldogs’ aggressive offensive strategies. The key will be in the quarterbacks’ performances, where Pavia’s long passes might clash with Keene’s consistent game management.
For bettors, this game presents intriguing opportunities. The Aggies, despite being favorites, face a resilient Bulldogs team that has historically performed well against them. The point spread and total suggest a moderately scoring game, with defenses likely playing a significant role.
In conclusion, the Aggies might edge out the Bulldogs in a tight contest, potentially going just over the total. This matchup promises to be a highlight of the NCAAF week, offering both excitement on the field and opportunities for savvy bettors looking for the best premium picks.
Free Pick and Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies 27, Fresno State Bulldogs 24