UFC 295: Erceg vs. Costa 11/11/23 – UFC 295 promises to change the landscape of flyweight boxing as we know it, showing an array of untapped potential and intense preparation. Madison Square Garden will play host to an enthralling contest between Steve “Astroboy” Erceg and Alessandro “Nono” Costa on Saturday. A variety of multi-handicapper picks have been carefully studied to ascertain which investment makes sense; statistical data and betting odds tell a compelling narrative which should captivate and engage combat sports fans and betting community members alike.
UFC 295: Erceg vs. Costa 11/11/23 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Steve “AstroBoy”Erceg Analysis
Steve Erceg boasts an impressive 10-1-0 record and enters each octagon confidently, showing no fear for going the distance. Standing 5’8″, Erceg employs an orthodox stance with his classic approach to striking and grappling.
Erceg’s striking game is impressive in both volume and accuracy with 3.60 strikes landed per minute at 38% accuracy; yet is supplemented by his powerful grappling. Erceg boasts an average takedown rate of 3.00 per 15 minutes at 75% accuracy which indicates his preference for taking fights to the mat.
“Astroboy” holds an impressive 53% defense stat against strikes and can absorb 3.53 strikes per minute without incurring excessive injuries. Furthermore, his submission average of one per 15 minutes underscores his well-rounded martial artist approach.
His recent victory over Dvorak highlighted not only his staying power but also his strategic implementation of a game plan that enabled him to exploit his grappling edge, a quality that may well be a decisive factor in his upcoming fight.
Alessandro “Nono” Costa Analysis
Across the octagon stands Alessandro Costa, who brings a record of 13-3-0 to the fray. His average fight time of 11:05 indicates a more dynamic, perhaps aggressive style. Costa’s 5’4″ frame is paired with a 67″ reach, operating from an orthodox stance that serves him well in striking exchanges.
In the striking department, Costa lands an impressive 3.82 significant strikes per minute with a higher accuracy of 43%. His defense is notable at 63%, managing to absorb a lower rate of 3.01 strikes per minute, speaking to his ability to dodge and weave through oncoming assaults effectively.
What stands out for “Nono” is his takedown defense, a staggering 91%, a statistic that will be thoroughly tested against Erceg’s grappling-heavy approach. However, his lack of takedowns and submissions per 15 minutes perhaps underlines a preference to keep the battle standing where he can utilize his striking acumen.
Costa’s latest win over Flick served to reinforce his reputation as a striker who can outmaneuver and outwork opponents, an asset that he will need to leverage to the fullest against a ground specialist like Erceg.
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa Stats
| Erceg | Costa | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 10-1-0 | 13-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 15:00 | 11:05 |
| Height | 5′ 8″ | 5′ 4″ |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 68″ | 67″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 3.60 | 3.82 |
| Striking Accuracy | 38% | 43% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 3.53 | 3.01 |
| Defense | 53% | 63% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 75% | 0% |
| Takedown Defense | 66% | 91% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa Betting Pick
After dissecting the data, the pick here leans towards Steve Erceg. His superior grappling statistics and his proven track record of controlling the pace and position of his fights give him a significant edge. Although Costa’s striking and takedown defense are commendable, Erceg’s ability to potentially neutralize his opponent’s stand-up game with takedowns and control on the ground could be the deciding factor.
Free Pick: Steve “AstroBoy” Erceg -190
As UFC 295 fight night approaches, Steve Erceg and Alessandro Costa’s flyweight bout promises a strategic chess match. Each competitor brings unique advantages to the table, setting the stage for an intense showdown. The free MMA tips suggest placing confidence in Erceg’s grappling proficiency to secure victory. As the odds slightly favor him, it’s worth considering that in MMA, the smallest margins can make the biggest difference, and Erceg’s well-rounded skill set may very well carve the path to his success in the Octagon.