UFC 295: Pavlovich vs. Aspinall 11/11/23 – As the season ushers in the fall foliage across New York City, the venerable Madison Square Garden prepares to open its doors for a significant event in the annals of the UFC’s heavyweight category. On Saturday, at the hour of 11 PM ET, connoisseurs of the martial arts are set to partake in the spectacle of a heavyweight title bout, as Sergei Pavlovich faces Tom Aspinall for the UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship. The community of combat sports, from casual observers to seasoned analysts, is engaged in a diligent examination of statistics and fighter histories, seeking to formulate expert UFC predictions for an outcome that remains eagerly anticipated.
UFC 295: Pavlovich vs Aspinall 11/11/23 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 11:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Sergei Pavlovich Analysis
Sporting an impressive 18-1-0 record, Sergei Pavlovich enters the octagon with the kind of knockout power that has left many of his opponents staring up at the lights. Averaging a fight time of just over two minutes, his aggressive style has rarely allowed his adversaries to settle into a rhythm. Boasting an SLpM (Strikes Landed per Minute) of 8.72 with a striking accuracy of 49%, his stand-up game is not to be taken lightly. However, it’s his ability to absorb punishment (4.33 SApM) while maintaining a 57% defense that truly makes him a formidable force.
What Pavlovich lacks in grappling – with a takedown average of 0.00 – he compensates for with a solid takedown defense of 75%. His previous bout against Curtis Blaydes was a testament to his striking prowess, as he managed to dismantle a wrestler of high caliber. But grappling remains an area where he hasn’t been truly tested, given the brevity of his bouts and his preferred method of victory – the knockout.
Tom Aspinall Analysis
Tom Aspinall‘s tale of the tape reads like that of a well-rounded warrior primed for the highest honors. With a record of 13-3-0, he stands slightly taller and matches Pavlovich nearly pound for pound. His average fight time mirrors that of his Russian adversary, suggesting a similar propensity for early finishes. Yet, it is in the details that Aspinall’s advantages begin to emerge. His reach may be shorter, but a striking accuracy of 66% coupled with a defense of 65% indicates a precision and evasiveness that could pose problems for Pavlovich.
Aspinall’s grappling is where he eclipses many in the heavyweight division. With a staggering takedown average of 3.70 per 15 minutes and a flawless takedown accuracy and defense – both standing at 100% – he has proven his ability to control where the fight takes place. His submission average of 1.9 per 15 minutes could be the key to exploiting Pavlovich’s untested ground game. Aspinall’s victory over Marcin Tybura showcased his dynamic skill set, blending striking with seamless transitions to grappling, highlighting his readiness for a title shot.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Stats
| Pavlovich | Aspinall | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 18-1-0 | 13-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 2:23 | 2:19 |
| Height | 6′ 3″ | 6′ 5″ |
| Weight | 257 lbs. | 256 lbs. |
| Reach | 84″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 8.72 | 7.65 |
| Striking Accuracy | 49% | 66% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 4.33 | 2.90 |
| Defense | 57% | 65% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 0% | 100% |
| Takedown Defense | 75% | 100% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.0 | 1.9 |
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Betting Pick
With all factors considered, the pick here leans towards Tom Aspinall. The crucial difference-maker could be his superior grappling and submission skills, which have the potential to neutralize Pavlovich’s striking force. Aspinall’s defense and accuracy on the feet should allow him to engage effectively, and his ability to take the fight to the ground at will is an advantage that cannot be overlooked. Given Pavlovich’s lack of grappling prowess shown in his fight history, Aspinall’s multifaceted approach could see him dictate the pace and location of the contest.
Free Pick: Tom Aspinall -121
As the anticipation for UFC 295 reaches its zenith, the matchup between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall has all the ingredients of a classic heavyweight showdown. Our performance expert picks suggest that while Pavlovich’s knockout power makes him a perpetual threat, Aspinall’s tactical versatility is likely to prevail. In the grand stage of Madison Square Garden, with the interim title at stake, look for Aspinall to potentially endure an early storm before implementing a strategic grappling game to secure the victory. As always, the unpredictable nature of the sport provides no guarantees, but the analysis indicates Aspinall is primed to claim the interim heavyweight crown.