UFC 295: Rebecki vs. Roberts 11/11/23 – On the Saturday, the storied venue of Madison Square Garden is set to welcome the pinnacle of mixed martial arts action with UFC 295. This highly-anticipated evening of competition will spotlight a riveting confrontation in the lightweight division between the tenacious Mateusz Rebecki and the strategically gifted Roosevelt “The Predator” Roberts. This encounter is poised to offer more than just the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat; it stands as a critical juncture for MMA future picks contenders who may redefine the dynamics of the division.
UFC 295: Rebecki vs. Roberts 11/11/23 Game Info
|When:||Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET|
|Where:||Madison Square Garden, New York, NY|
Mateusz R?becki Analysis
Mateusz Rebecki steps into the octagon carrying a formidable record of 17-1-0, evidence of his dominance and ability to finish fights, as shown by his notably short average fight time of just over eight and a half minutes. At 5’7″ and with a 66″ reach, Rebecki may not be the most physically imposing fighter in the lightweight division, but his southpaw stance and compact frame have provided him the leverage to execute powerful strikes and maintain an impressive striking landed per minute rate of 5.57. His accuracy, at 53%, is above average and demonstrates a precise approach to striking, while his defensive metrics show he absorbs a scant 2.18 significant strikes per minute, reinforcing his efficiency inside the cage.
Grappling is where Rebecki further distinguishes himself, boasting an average of 3.50 takedowns every 15 minutes with a 66% success rate. His submission average stands at 1.2 per bout, highlighting his propensity for ground finishes. Defensively, his takedown defense mirrors his offense at 66%, illustrating a balanced skill set that has served him well thus far. His latest victory over Radzhabov cements his status as a legitimate threat in the division and aligns with the oddsmakers’ view, positioning him as a strong favorite with a -600 moneyline.
Roosevelt “The Predator” Roberts Analysis
Roosevelt Roberts enters this matchup with a record reflecting both triumphs and tribulations at 12-4-0 (1 NC). Standing at an imposing 6’2″ with a 73″ reach, Roberts has a considerable size and reach advantage, which he utilizes to keep opponents at bay with his orthodox stance. His average fight time of over nine minutes showcases his endurance and ability to navigate the deeper waters of a fight. His striking landed per minute rate stands at 3.14, and while his accuracy may seem modest at 44%, it is his reach that often poses problems for his opponents.
Roberts’ defensive stats indicate an area of vulnerability, absorbing an average of 3.12 significant strikes per minute with a 53% defense rate, suggesting he is hittable in exchanges. Grappling statistics present a mixed bag; he achieves 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of just 29%. His takedown defense at 58% also hints at potential struggles against grappling-centric fighters. His submission average of 0.9 is respectable but not dominant. Roberts’ most recent outing resulted in a loss to Bahamondes, an outcome that has swayed the oddsmakers to list him as a sizable underdog at +425.
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts Stats
|Wins/Losses/Draws||17-1-0||12-4-0 (1 NC)|
|Average Fight Time||8:34||9:16|
|Height||5′ 7″||6′ 2″|
|Weight||155 lbs.||155 lbs.|
|Strikes Landed per Min.||5.57||3.14|
|Strikes Absorbed per Min.||2.18||3.12|
|Takedowns Average/15 min.||3.50||1.44|
|Submission Average/15 min.||1.2||0.9|
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts Betting Pick
While both fighters have their merits, the pick here gravitates towards Mateusz Rebecki. His balance of striking proficiency and grappling acumen, coupled with his demonstrated ability to finish fights, positions him as the likely victor. Roberts’ reach advantage and resilience are notable; however, Rebecki’s superior offensive stats and defensive solidity are compelling indicators of his capacity to neutralize Roberts’ attributes. Given the aggressive odds, it’s prudent to regard Rebecki as a solid bet to emerge victorious in this lightweight bout.
Free Pick: Mateusz Rebecki -600
As we culminate our expert analysis, the fight between Mateusz Rebecki and Roosevelt Roberts is shaping up to be a decisive battle, with Rebecki favored to solidify his place in the lightweight ranks. This bout will not only test the mettle of both fighters but also serve as a barometer for their potential ascent in the UFC hierarchy. As Madison Square Garden sets the stage for this encounter, it is Rebecki’s balanced offense and stout defense that tip the scales in his favor, making him the fighter to watch as UFC 295 unfolds.