Indianapolis Colts (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (2-7)
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots 11/12/23 – In an intriguing Week 10 NFL showdown, the Indianapolis Colts will take on the New England Patriots. Both teams are entering the second half of the season with differing prospects. The Colts, with a 4-5 record, are looking to inch closer to .500 and keep playoff hopes alive, while the Patriots, sitting at 2-7, are seeking to salvage their season with a morale-boosting victory. As the latest NFL game previews roll in, all eyes turn to Deutsche Bank Park for this matchup, which could be critical for the Colts ambitions or could mark the beginning of a turnaround for the Patriots.
The Colts’ performance this season has been marked by flashes of solid play marred by inconsistent execution. On the ground, Zack Moss has emerged as a credible threat, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and totaling 589 rushing yards over 7 games. His ability to rip off sizable gains is notable, with 6 plays of 20+ yards, and his presence in the end zone is palpable with 5 touchdowns. In the passing game, Michael Pittman Jr. has been a reliable outlet, bringing in 50 receptions for 529 yards. His role is critical to the Colts’ offensive balance and his ability to rack up yards after catch—261 to be exact—will be vital against the Patriots’ defense.
Conversely, the Patriots have had a disappointing campaign and are looking to find a rhythm offensively. Mac Jones, despite facing criticism, has completed 64.8% of his passes for 1861 yards, albeit with a nearly 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio. The ground game, led by Rhamondre Stevenson, hasn’t provided much relief either, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Yet, Kendrick Bourne has provided a glimmer of hope, with his 11 yards per reception offering a potential matchup problem for the Colts’ secondary.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots 11/12/23 Game Info
|When:||Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 9:30 AM ET|
|Where:||Deutsche Bank Park|
|Stream:||NFL Game Pass|
Gardner Minshew QB vs. Mac Jones QB
Colts’ quarterback Gardner Minshew has filled the role of a cautious game manager this season, with a completion percentage of 63.4% and a respectable passer rating of 85. However, the offensive line must improve, evidenced by 14 total sacks allowed. Minshew’s ability to connect with his receivers, especially under pressure, will be a key factor in determining the Colts’ offensive efficacy.
For the Patriots, Mac Jones‘ sophomore year hasn’t gone as planned. Despite an acceptable completion percentage, his average of 6.1 yards per pass attempt indicates a conservative passing game that struggles with downfield threats. His passer rating of 80.2 tells a story of a quarterback still trying to find his confidence and consistency in the NFL.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: New England Patriots -216, Total Odds: 40.5
The betting odds set the Patriots as favorites with a -5 point spread, despite their poorer record, indicating the oddsmakers’ belief in their ability to win at home. The total is set conservatively at 40.5, hinting at expected offensive struggles or strong defensive play from both teams.
Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends
The Colts have seen the total go OVER in 11 of their last 15 games, suggesting their games have been higher scoring than anticipated. However, they’ve struggled in head-to-head matchups, going 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against the Patriots and a disheartening 1-9 straight up in their last 10 encounters. Their road performance trend isn’t optimistic either, as they haven’t covered the spread in their last 5 visits to New England.
New England Patriots Betting Trends
The Patriots’ recent betting trends have not been promising, with a worrying 2-11 record against the spread in their last 13 games. However, they have had a better track record in terms of the game’s total, with it going UNDER in 6 of their last 8 games. At home against the Colts, they’ve been a solid bet, going 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 encounters at home.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots 11/12/23 Betting Picks
Under current trends and team dynamics, the Colts may appear an attractive underdog bet against New England at +5 with their prolific offensive potential and underachieving defense. Yet New England may possess a tactical edge against them as evidenced by their strong ATS record against them at home against this matchup.
Expert analysis indicates that, despite being favorites, this game could be closely contested and even see an upset occur. The Colts possess tools to challenge the Patriots defense and can protect Minshew to have a chance at covering or winning outright.
Free Pick and Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 23, New England Patriots 20