Houston Texans (4-4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals 11/12/23 – As the season crosses the halfway point, NFL statistical analysis becomes crucial in understanding team tendencies and performances. In a fascinating Week 10 matchup, the evenly matched Houston Texans visit the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Sunday. This encounter promises to be a pivotal moment in the season for both franchises as they vie for a stronger foothold heading into the latter half of the season.
The Texans have demonstrated a dual-threat offensive approach, with C.J. Stroud at the helm showcasing impressive passing numbers. Stroud has tallied 2,270 passing yards and 14 touchdowns against a singular interception, exemplifying efficiency and threat in the passing game. Yet, it is the ground game where Houston has room for improvement. Dameon Pierce has been a workhorse with 109 attempts but averages only 3 yards per rush, indicating a need for better run-blocking or play-calling adjustments. On the receiving end, Nico Collins has emerged as a bright spot. His 631 receiving yards and 17.5 yards per reception signal a high-impact presence on the field, stretching defenses and providing Houston with explosive play potential.
The Bengals’ offense is characterized by a more balanced attack. Joe Burrow, the cerebral quarterback, has compiled a slightly lower yardage total than Stroud but maintains a commendable 66.3 completion percentage. The rushing responsibilities are shouldered by Joe Mixon, who provides a consistent and slightly more effective run game than his Texan counterpart, averaging 4 yards per carry and garnering rushing first downs on 26 occasions. In the air, Ja’Marr Chase continues to establish himself as one of the league’s elite receivers, amassing 656 yards and four touchdowns to date, along with substantial after-the-catch yardage.
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals 11/12/23 Game Info
|When:||Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET|
|Stream:||NFL Game Pass|
C.J. Stroud QB vs. Joe Burrow QB
C.J. Stroud has risen to the challenge in his 8 games, with a robust 102.9 passer rating that reflects his reliability and poise in the pocket. With a low interception count and high yards per attempt, Stroud is effectively pushing the ball downfield. However, with 18 sacks, there is a vulnerability in protection that must be addressed. Stroud’s performance is pivotal for Houston’s success, and his continued poise against a formidable Bengals defense will be key.
Joe Burrow counters with experience and a slightly conservative 5.7 yards per attempt. Despite a lower passer rating of 87.5, Burrow’s leadership and game management cannot be underestimated. His tenacity and playmaking ability under duress have been tested, and with 17 sacks to his name, like Stroud, he must navigate the pocket with care to mitigate pressure from the Texans’ defense.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -400, Total Odds: 44.5
The betting odds are leaning heavily towards the Bengals, understandable given their solid record and performance at home. The spread sits at -8.5 for Cincinnati, suggesting confidence in their ability to win by more than a touchdown. For total points, the line is set at 44.5, with trends suggesting that an under might be the play here, given both teams’ recent history.
Houston Texans Betting Trends
Houston has covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 games, indicating a tenacity that belies their overall record. The total going UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games suggests a combination of stout defense and an offense that hasn’t quite hit a high-scoring rhythm. Notably, their historical edge against Cincinnati, with an 8-3 ATS in their last 11 matchups, could influence betting trends.
Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends
Cincinnati’s recent form has been impressive, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The trend of the total going UNDER in 7 of their last 10 games highlights their defensive capabilities. At home, the Bengals have been dominant with a 10-1 SU record in their last 11 games. However, they have struggled to cover the spread against Houston at home, with an 0-5 ATS mark in such scenarios.
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals 11/12/23 Betting Picks
In considering all data, the Texans show resilience against the spread, particularly when facing the Bengals. This, coupled with their strong ATS performance recently, suggests they may cover once more. However, Cincinnati’s outright winning record, especially at home, cannot be ignored. Sports analysts’ tips often lean towards historical trends, but current season dynamics must take precedence.
Given the tight nature of this matchup and considering the underwhelming rushing stats from both sides, the better pick may lie with the Bengals to win but not cover the spread. Prop bets on individual player performances, like Stroud’s passing yards or Chase’s receiving yards, may also present value. The under on total points appears enticing, in line with the trends.
Free Pick and Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 24, Houston Texans 20