UNLV Rebels (6-2) vs. New Mexico Lobos (3-5)
UNLV Rebels vs. New Mexico Lobos 11/4/23 – As college football season reaches its critical weeks, fans and bettors alike are looking ahead to an eye-catching Mountain West matchup scheduled for November 4th 2023. The UNLV Rebels boasting an impressive 6-2 record are gearing up to meet New Mexico Lobos with less-than-stellar records of 3-5; this meeting promises to be pivotal moment for both sides, garnering significant attention among those searching for free NCAAF predictions. With Rebels enjoying commanding position this season and Lobos hoping for an upset victory, University Stadium promises an exhilarating battle!
UNLV enters this game having displayed impressive offensive performance throughout the year, led by players such as Vincent Davis Jr. and Ricky White. Davis Jr. has led his team with 456 rushing yards at an average of 5.6 yards per rush attempt and two touchdowns while White has made waves at wide receiver with 46 receptions and 711 receiving yards resulting in four touchdowns for an outstanding showing come game day.
New Mexico Lobos despite their sub-.500 record have shown glimpses of promise thanks to Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremiah Hixon’s performances, particularly their efforts on defense. Croskey-Merritt is an emerging threat in the backfield rushing for 589 yards with an outstanding average of 5.8 yards per carry and crossing into the end zone 12 times; Hixon is a reliable target who amassed 336 receiving yards and scored 5 touchdowns, an essential element in breaking down Rebel defense.
D will be crucial in unlocking the Rebels’ defense.
UNLV Rebels vs. New Mexico Lobos 11/4/23 Game Info
|When:||Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET|
Jayden Maiava QB vs. Dylan Hopkins QB
Jayden Maiava has been an indispensable leader for UNLV this season. His stats reflect this, with 121 completions, 1581 passing yards and an outstanding passer rating of 142.3. Maiava boasts an outstanding 64% completion rate while also averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt – showing precision and depth of play he makes smart plays under pressure while knowing when it is appropriate to take risks – but Lobos look for opportunities in his susceptibility to sacks; having taken 6 so far.
Dylan Hopkins of the New Mexico Lobos offers an entirely different style. With 1638 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to his credit, Hopkins has shown he can move the chains. But his completion percentage of only 58.1% falls short of Maiava’s, and his passer rating of 134.2 falls just short. With his ability to throw long (78-yard longest pass) or under duress (7 interceptions), Hopkins may make a difference; thus his matchup will play a critical role in this game’s outcome.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: UNLV Rebels -350, Total Odds: 60.5
The betting odds are tilting significantly in favor of the UNLV Rebels, and with a spread of -10, it indicates that oddsmakers expect them to win by a substantial margin. A moneyline of -350 suggests confidence in their ability to secure a victory, whereas the Lobos, at +280, are seen as clear underdogs. The total at 60.5 leans towards expectations of a high-scoring affair, potentially with both offenses firing on all cylinders.
UNLV Rebels Betting Trends
The Rebels have been consistent performers against the spread, with a 7-1 record ATS in their last 8 games, signaling their reliability in covering expectations. Their games have tended to be high-scoring, with the total going OVER in 4 of their last 6 outings. Their overall 5-1 straight-up (SU) record in recent games further emphasizes their form and threat. Particularly on the road, they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games, showing they travel well and handle hostile environments effectively.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Trends
The betting trends for the Lobos reflect their struggles; a concerning 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games shows a pattern of underperforming relative to betting expectations. The total has consistently gone OVER in their games, suggesting their defense might be giving up as many points as their offense can score. A worrisome 3-14 SU record in their last 17 games is indicative of the challenges they face, and their 1-4 ATS record when playing at home against the Rebels is particularly telling ahead of this matchup.
UNLV Rebels vs. New Mexico Lobos 11/4/23 Betting Picks
In analyzing the data and current trends, the Rebels appear poised to continue their dominance, particularly given their strong performance ATS and their SU record. While the Lobos have the ability to put up points, their defensive vulnerabilities may be too much to overcome against a balanced and efficient UNLV offense. The over has potential, given both teams’ trends, but the Rebels covering the spread seems to be the more compelling pick.
For those looking at premium matchup selections, the Rebels’ ability to cover the spread despite the -10 line is attractive. Prop bets on individual player performance, such as Vincent Davis Jr.’s rushing yards or Ricky White’s receptions, could offer additional value. Considering the offensive capabilities on display, taking the OVER on the total points might also be a shrewd move.
Free Pick and Prediction: UNLV Rebels 38, New Mexico Lobos 24