Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-6) vs New Mexico State Aggies (6-3)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs New Mexico State Aggies 11/4/23 – As the college football season heads into Week 10, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders face a challenging road encounter against the New Mexico State Aggies. The Blue Raiders, standing at a struggling 2-6, will take the field on Saturday, November 4, 2023, at 6:00 PM ET, hoping to disrupt the Aggies’ more favorable 6-3 record. The game is slated for action at Aggie Memorial Stadium and will be broadcast on ESP+. In the handicapping world, the top premium picks are leaning towards a competitive match-up, with the Aggies favored but with enough room for the Blue Raiders to potentially pull an upset.
Middle Tennessee enters this contest with significant pressure to turn their season around. Key player Jaiden Credle, the RB with a robust 5.2 yards per rush attempt, must find gaps in the Aggie’s defense to set the tone on the ground. On the receiving end, Elijah Metcalf’s 483 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns showcase his big-play ability. Metcalf’s explosiveness will be crucial for Middle Tennessee to stretch the field and score against a solid Aggies defense.
On the opposing side, the New Mexico State Aggies are putting together an impressive campaign. With a notable 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, they come off as a team that not only wins but also covers the spread consistently. Key to their offense is Diego Pavia, the dual-threat QB who has racked up impressive numbers both through the air and on the ground, signaling versatility and adaptability in their offensive schemes. Coupled with Jonathan Brady, the WR with a whopping 16.9 yards per reception, the Aggies have the firepower to challenge any defense they come up against.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs New Mexico State Aggies 11/4/23 Game Info
|When:||Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET|
|Where:||Aggie Memorial Stadium|
Nicholas Vattiato QB vs. Diego Pavia QB
Nicholas Vattiato of Middle Tennessee has a commendable 68.1 completion percentage, reflecting his accuracy, but his 8 interceptions also highlight a vulnerability under pressure. With 2156 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, Vattiato has shown he can lead an offense, but against New Mexico State, his resilience and ability to avoid turnovers will be put to the test.
In contrast, New Mexico State’s Diego Pavia has been a beacon of efficiency, boasting a higher passer rating of 159.8 and a better yards per attempt at 9.1. His dual-threat nature makes him unpredictable and a constant thorn in the side of defenses. Pavia’s ability to extend plays with his legs and his decision-making skills will be pivotal for the Aggies as they look to exploit Middle Tennessee’s defensive woes.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: New Mexico State Aggies -153, Total Odds: 56
The betting odds favor the Aggies with a -3 spread and a -153 moneyline, implying confidence from oddsmakers in their ability to cover. The total is set at 56, with equal odds on the over and under, presenting an interesting decision for bettors given both teams’ performance trends.
Middle Tennessee Betting Trends
The Blue Raiders have struggled ATS, particularly on the road and against Independents, which may give bettors pause. Their tendency to go OVER in November games could hint at high-scoring affairs, possibly due to defensive lapses or a catch-up style of play in late-season games.
New Mexico State Betting Trends
New Mexico State’s betting trends suggest a team that’s not just winning but outperforming expectations, particularly ATS and at home. Their UNDER trend suggests a strong defense or a ball-control offense, both of which could limit Middle Tennessee’s scoring opportunities.
Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State 11/4/23 Betting Picks
Given the analysis and betting trends, the recommendation leans towards trusting the Aggies to cover the spread. They’ve shown consistency and an ability to outmatch their opponents tactically and physically. Middle Tennessee’s difficulties in covering and securing wins on the road further reinforce this pick.
In the battle of picks, the better bet seems to be on the New Mexico State Aggies. They have shown a robust performance ATS, and their strong home record is hard to ignore. Prop bets on Pavia for total yards could be promising, given his dual-threat capabilities. The over/under is trickier, but given Middle Tennessee’s trend of hitting the OVER in November, and considering the NCAAF free predictions, a slight lean towards the OVER might be justified, expecting both offenses to push the pace.
Free Pick and Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies 34, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 24