San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins 5/11/2023 Picks Predictions

San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins 5/11/2023 Picks Predictions Previews

The Minnesota Twins are hosting the San Diego Padres at the Target Field in Minnesota on Thursday, May 11, 2023, at 13:10 ET in Game 3 of this series. Both have won once and are looking for the win that will give them the 2-1 lead.

The Twins have a 20-17 record so far this season and are 11-7 at home. They are 19-18 on the runline (9-9 at home) and 14-20-3 in over/under.

They are sitting on the first place of the Central Division. Byron Buxton leads the team in home runs this season with 8 and he also leads the team in batting average with .226.

The Twins are bottom-10 in the league offensively with 4.24 runs but they have the second-best defense, allowing 3.64 runs per game.

They have a .220 hitting percentage and their bullpen has a 3.65 ERA. They average 1.25 home runs per game and 9.53 strikeouts.

On the mound for the Twins today will be Bailey Ober who has a 2-0 record, 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He is coming off a perfect game where he allowed no runs in 7 innings pitched in a 2-0 win against the Cleveland Guardians.

Twins Betting Trends:

Under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
Under is 4-0 in their last 4 games following a win.
Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 Thursday games.
Under is 6-0-2 in their last 8 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass.

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San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins Predictions 5/11/2023

The Padres have a 19-18 record so far this season and are 9-7 on the road. They are 20-17 on the runline (11-5 on the road) and 13-23-1 in over/under.

They are sitting on the third place of the West Division. Xander Bogaerts leads the team both in home runs this season with 6 and in batting average with .272.

The Padres average 4.18 runs offensively while allowing 4.18 runs per game defensively. They have a .231 hitting percentage and their bullpen has a 3.77 ERA. They average 1.11 home runs per game and 9.04 strikeouts.

On the mound for the Padres today will be Yu Darvish who has a 2-2 record, 3.19 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. In his last start he allowed just one run in 6.2 innings pitched in a 5-2 wins against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Padres Betting Trends:

Under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 interleague games.
Under is 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.

In their previous meeting yesterday, the Twins won at home with a 4-3 score. The Twins got the 2-0 lead by the bottom of the third inning, but the Padres bounced back and tied the game 2-2 on the top of the 8th.

Alex Kirilloff singled to drive in Max Kepler from second in the bottom of the 11th inning to give the Minnesota Twins a 4-3 walk-off win over the Padres.

Head-to-Head Trends:

Padres are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in Minnesota.
Padres are 5-14 in the last 19 meetings.

Prediction:

Both previous games of this series had 7 total runs and the pitchers of today’s game are strong. There are also strong under trends for both teams individually, so I’m going to roll with under 8 today.

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