Free MLB Picks For Today 10/4/2022
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Yankees at Rangers—Jameson Taillon to start Game 1 for the Yankees. Taillon in 31 starts carries an ERA 3.83 with WHIP 1.11. The righthander a strikeout mark of 20.9% with 4.3% walks. Ground balls dished at 40.9% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings.
Spencer Howard to start for Texas. Howard in ten appearances an ERA 7.41 with WHIP 1.73. The righty fans 17.9% with 8.4% walks. Ground balls 39.2% with 2.87 home runs per nine innings. Yankees win the opener of this series 3-1. Texas has lost six straight.
Past ten games Rangers hitting .181 against righthanders. As long as Judge sits at 61 homers the Yankees play starters to try to get Judge as many at bats as possible. Play NYY on run line -1.5 runs in the opener.
Gerritt Cole to start in Game 2 for NYY. Cole starts in 32 games produces an ERA 3.51 with WHIP 1.02. The veteran an elite 32.2% strikeout rate with 6.5% walks. Ground balls 42.6% with 1.48 home runs per nine innings.
Jon Gray to start for Texas. Gray has 23 starts with an ERA 3.93 plus WHIP 1.15. The righthander if fanning 26.3% with 7.8% walks. Grounders 44.2% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings.
If Judge doesn’t hit a homer in Game 1 would expect starters to see action to help him get as many at bats as possible. Play Yankees on run line in Game 2 -1.5 runs.
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Tigers at Mariners—Eduardo Rodriguez will start Game 1 for Detroit. Rodriguez starts in sixteen games producing an ERA 4.02 plus WHIP 1.35. The lefthander a strikeout mark of 17.8% with 9% walks. Grounders 43% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings.
Marco Gonzales to start for Seattle. Gonzales has 31 starts with an ERA 4.14 and WHIP 1.33. The lefthander pitches to contact with 13% strikeouts and 6.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 42.4% with 1.53 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 5.15 indicator of a rising ERA based on his numbers.
Tigers win the opener of this series 4-3 and have won nine of ten. Past ten games Tigers bullpen an ERA 1.73. Gonzales past three starts allowed twelve earned runs with six homers in 16 1/3rd innings. Tigers have hit him past two seasons. Mariners 13-18 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 past two seasons. Play Detroit +146 in Game 1.
Game 2 starter is Garrett Hill for Detroit. Hill in sixteen appearances an ERA 3.84 with WHP 1.33. The righthander pitches to 15% strikeouts with 11.5% walks. Ground balls dealt 36.8% with 1.23 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 5.22 suggests a rise in ERA based on this form.
Chris Flexen will start for Seattle. Flexen has 32 appearances posting an ERA 3.64 with WHIP 1.32. The righty a 16.3% strikeout mark with 32.9% walks. Ground ball rate 32.9% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings. Team record behind Flexen 12-1 against a tea getting outscored by 0.5 runs or greater past two seasons. Play Seattle in Game 2.
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Royals at Guardians—Daniel Lynch will start for KC. Lynch starts in 26 games with an ERA 4.96 and WHIP 1.55. The lefthander is striking out 20.8% with 8.7% walks. Ground balls come in at 41.4% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
Cal Quantrill will start for Cleveland. Quantrill has 31 starts carrying an ERA 3.43 plus WHIP 1.22. The righthander a strikeout mark of 16.5% with 6.3% walks. Ground ball rate 42% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings.
KC has evened this series at 2-2 with their 5-2 win. Lynch 8-1 to the under facing AL Teams averaging 4.4 runs or fewer this season. Past ten games Guardians bullpen an ERA 2.45. Play KC and Cleveland under 7.5.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Cardinals at Pirates—Jack Flaherty the primary pitcher for St Louis. Flaherty in eight starts posts an ERA 4.37 and WHIP 1.63. The righthander a strikeout mark 19.5% with 13.4% walks. Grounders 41.6% with 1.03 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 5.08 an indicator of a rising ERA based on his results.
JT Brubaker to start for Pittsburgh. Brubaker has 27 starts with an ERA 4.58 plus WHIP 1.46. The righty is striking out 22.9% with 8.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 44.4% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings.
Pittsburgh wins the opener of this series 3-2 and have won five of seven. Past ten games Cardinals hitting .221 against righthanders. Play Pittsburgh on run line +1.5 runs.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Cubs at Reds—Javier Assad to start for Chicago. Assad in eight appearances carries an ERA 3.62 plus WHIP 1.55. The righthander fans 17.8% with 13% walks. Ground balls 38.6% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 4.87 suggests an increase in ERA based on his advanced numbers.
Luis Cessa to start for Cincinnati. Cessa has nine starts posting an ERA 4.76 and WHIP 1.35. The righty is striking out 17.3% with 8.5% walks. Grounders 48.5% with 1.55 home runs per nine innings. Reds win the opener of this series 3-1 to break a six game losing streak. This broke a seven game win streak for Chicago.
Past ten games Reds hitting .158 against righthanders. Reds 6-14 at home facing a team hitting .250 or worse during the second half of this season. Cincinnati 12-21 when favored by -100 to -150 this season. Play Chicago +102.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Braves at Marlins—Jake Odorizzi to start for Atlanta. Odorizzi has 21 starts posting an ERA 4.53 with WHP 1.36. The veteran an 18.2% strikeout rate with 7.8% walks. Ground balls served at 31.8% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings.
Braxton Garrett to start for Miami. Garrett in sixteen starts an ERA 3.56 and WHIP 1.18. The lefthander fans 23.8% with 5.4% walks. Grounders 46.6% with 0.97 home runs per nine innings. Marlins win the opener of this series 4-0 and have won four of five.
Past ten games Braves hitting .283 against lefthanders and a bullpen ERA 0.83. Braves 28-15 to the run line against bad teams with .380 to .460 win percentage. Play Atlanta Braves on run line -1.5 runs at +110.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Blue Jays at Orioles—Mitch White to start for Toronto. White in 27 appearances producing an ERA 5.21 plus WHIP 1.44. The righthander is striking out 17.6% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 43.3% with 0.76 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 3.85 an indication of an ERA dropping based on these numbers.
Mike Baumann will start for Baltimore. Baumann has worked twelve games with an ERA 4.34 and WHIP 1.45. The righty pitches to contact with 15.2% strikeouts with 6.4% walks. Grounders 50.5% with limited home run damage.
Blue Jays win the opener of this series 5-1 and have won four straight. Orioles have dropped five of seven. Past ten games Orioles bullpen an ERA 6.30. White 12-4 to the over in night games this season. Both starters in poor form. Play Toronto and Baltimore over 7.5.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Rays at Red Sox—Jeffrey Springs getting the start for Tampa Bay. Springs in 32 appearances an ERA 2.45 and WHIP 1.07. The lefthander strikes out 26.3% with 5.6% walks. Grounders 41.3% with 0.95 home runs per nine innings.
Nathan Eovaldi to start for Boston. Eovaldi starts in nineteen posting an ERA 4.05 plus WHIP 1.26. The veteran is fanning 22.4% with 4.1% walks. Ground balls served 47.5% with 1.82 home runs per nine innings. Red Sox win the opener of this series with their 4-3 win. Rays have lost seven of nine.
Past ten games Tampa Bay hitting .202 against righthanders. Springs 13-4 to the under facing an AL team hitting .260 or worse this season. Springs 12-4 to the under when favored by -110 or greater this season. Play Tampa Bay and Boston under 7.5.
Washington Nationals vs. NY Mets MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Nationals at Mets—Paolo Espino the Game 1 starter for the Nationals. Espino in 41 games produces an ERA 4.30 with WHIP 1.31. The righthander a strikeout mark of 19.2% with 4.6% walks. Ground ball rate 39.2% with 1.67 home runs per nine innings.
Taijuan Walker getting the start for NYM. Walker in 28 starts posts an ERA 3.59 and WHIP 1.20. The veteran is striking out 19.3% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls dealt at 46.1% with 0.88 home runs per nine innings. Nationals lose three of four at home to the Phillies with the 8-1 defeat.
Mets are swept in a three game series at Atlanta with the 5-3 loss. A Braves win or Mets loss in the next three games and Atlanta wins the NL East. Past ten games Mets hitting .212 against righthanders with a bullpen ERA 5.13. Nationals in this period an ERA 1.80.
Washington 18-11 +21.7 units facing good teams with .620 win percentage of better during the second half of the season. Play Washington on Run Line +1.5 runs in Game 1.
With the rain out on Monday it appears the starters move to Game 2. Cory Abbott to for Washington. Abbott appeared in fifteen games with an ERA 5.11 with WHIP 1.36. The righthander a strikeout mark of 20.1% with 10.8% walks.
Ground balls 27.1% with 2.25 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 6.29 suggests a rising ERA with his numbers.Carlos Carrasco to start for NYM. Carrasco has 28 starts posting an ERA 3.95 and WHIP 1.32. The veteran fans 23.8% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls 45.9% with 0.97 home runs per nine innings. Play Washington +245.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Diamondbacks at Brewers—Zac Gallen to start for Arizona. Gallen in 30 starts carries an ERA 2.46 with WHIP 0.89. The righthander a K rate of 26.9% with 6.4% walks. Grounders 47% with limited home run damage.
Eric Lauer to start for Milwaukee. Lauer has 28 starts with an ERA 3.83 plus WHIP 1.24. The lefthander is striking out 23.5% with 8.6% walks. His ground balls 33.6% with 1.59 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 4.56 indicating a rise in ERA with his advanced numbers.
Milwaukee wins the opener of this series 6-5. Past ten games Milwaukee hitting .216 against righthanders. Team record behind Gallen 19-11 facing a team that averages 7 or greater strikeouts per game this season. Brewers eliminated from the playoffs with the Phillies win on Monday. Play Arizona -115.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Twins at White Sox—Josh Winder to start for Minnesota. Winder in fourteen appearances carrying an ERA 4.31 with WHIP 1.25. The righthander strikes out 16.5% with 6.2% walks. Ground balls 35.3% with 1.53 home runs per nine innings.
Lucas Giolito to start for Chicago. Giolito has fourteen starts with an ERA 5.00 and WHIP 1.47. The veteran fans 25.7% with 8.8% walks. A ground ball rate 38.1% with 1.40 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 4.07 an indicator of a dropping ERA with his form.
White Sox win the opener of this series with the 3-2 victory for their fourth win in five games. Twins have lost three straight. Twins 15-32 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. Play Chicago -120.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Phillies at Astros—Ranger Suarez to start for Philadelphia. Suarez in 28 starts has an ERA 3.37 with WHIP 1.30. the lefthander strikes out 19.7% with 8.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 55.8% with 0.71 home runs per nine innings.
Justin Verlander to start for Houston. Verlander has 27 starts posting an ERA 1.80 and WHIP 0.85. The veteran a strikeout mark of 26.9% with 4.3% walks. Grounders 37.7% with limited home run damage. A FIP 2.57 an indicator of a rising ERA based on his form.
Phillies win the opener of this series with the 3-0 victory for their third straight victory to clinch a wildcard spot. Past ten games Astros hitting .217 against lefthanders.
Phillies 11-2 to the under facing teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs or greater past two seasons. Verlander 9-1 to the under against a winning team this season. Play Philadelphia and Houston under seven.
LA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Angels at Athletics—Michael Lorenzen to start for LAA. Lorenzen in seventeen starts carries an ERA 4.52 plus WHIP 1.30. The righty deals 20.2% strikeouts with 10.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 51% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings.
Cole Irvin to start for Oakland. Irvin has 29 starts with an ERA 4.11 and WHIP 1.18. The lefthander a strikeout rate of 17.2% with 5% walks. Ground balls dished at 38.3% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings. Athletics win the opener of this series with their 5-4 win. This broke the Angels seven game win streak.
Past ten games LAA hitting .295 and Athletics .215. Angels 25-13 facing a team with a bad bullpen ERA 4.20 or worse past two seasons. Team record behind Irvin 10-23 against the AL West past two seasons. Irvin past six starts allowed 31 earned runs in 36 2/3rd innings. Play LA Angels -130.
Colorado Rockies vs. LA Dodgers MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Rockies at Dodgers—Ryan Feltner to start for Colorado. Feltner in nineteen appearances posts an ERA 6.01 and WHIP 1.43. The righthander fanning 19.8% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 41.8% with 1.48 home runs per nine innings. His FIP 4.74 implies a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
Julio Urias to start for LAD. Urias has thirty starts with an ERA 2.12 and WHIP 0.96. The lefthander a strikeout mark of 24.3% with 6% walks. Ground balls dished at 40% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 3.60 an indicator of a rise in ERA if form holds.
Rockies have evened this series at 2-2 with the 2-1 win. Past ten games Rockies bullpen ERA 7.46 and LAD 2.11. Team record behind Urias 15-6 to the run line on 5 or 6 days of rest. Play LA Dodgers on alternative run line -2 at -125.
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres MLB Pick Prediction 10/4/2022
Giants at Padres—Carlos Rodon to start for San Francisco. Rodon starts in 31 games has an ERA 2.88 with WHIP 1.03. The lefthander an elite strikeout rate of 33.4% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls sit 34.1% with limited home run damage. A FIP 2.25 suggests a drop in ERA with his numbers.
Sean Manaea to start for San Diego. Manaea has worked in 29 games posting an ERA 5.15 plus WHIP 1.34. The lefty is striking out 23% with 7.5% walks. Grounders 38.1% with 1.72 home runs per nine innings. Padres win the opener of this series 7-4.
San Francisco had won six of seven prior to that defeat. Rodon has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five starts. Manaea past four starts allowed 19 earned runs in 17 innings. Play San Francisco.
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