Free MLB Picks For Today 5/11/2022
LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Dodgers at Pirates—Ryan Pepiot to start for LAD. Pepiot makes his MLB debut on Wednesday. In six starts in Triple A the righthander carried an ERA of 2.05 with WHIP 1.15. He compiled 36 strikeouts in 26 1/3rd innings.
Beau Sulser the starter for the Pirates. Sulser has worked three games out of the bullpen in his MLB first season allowing no runs over 5 2/3rd innings. In his short sample Sulser had a 17.2% walk rate with a FIP of 4.13 which estimates an ERA over time with the numbers posted.
LA has won seven of eight after pounding the Pirates on Tuesday. Dodgers getting the better work from their bullpen. In their 20 wins the Dodgers have covered the run line each time. Play LA Dodgers on run line -1.5 runs.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Blue Jays at Yankees—Jose Berrios the starter for Toronto. Berrios in six starts carries an ERA of 5.34 with WHIP 1.64. The righthander has seen his strikeout rate plummet to 14.8% with a 7.4% walk rate. Ground balls way down as well. He is getting hurt by the home run ball with 1.57 per nine innings.
Jamison Taillon to start for Toronto. Taillon has five starts and has an ERA of 2.84 with WHIP 1.14. Strikeout rate is 20% with great control. Ground ball rate up to 42.3%. Good velocity.
Yankees have won eight of ten with their dramatic walk off 6-5 win. Blue Jays have lost six of eight. New York getting elite work out of their bullpen. Another poor outing by the Toronto bullpen. Play New York Yankees -140.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Brewers at Reds—Adrian Houser to start for the Brewers. Houser in five starts carries an ERA of 3.42 and WHIP 1.25. Strikeouts sit at 19.8% with walk rate of 9.9%. Ground balls at 44.2% but line drive rate is 27.3%. Good home run to fly ball rate of 0.34 per nine innings.
Vladimir Gutierrez to start for Cincinnati. Gutierrez in five starts has an ERA of 8.86 with WHIP 2.02. The righthander has seen his strikeout rate plummet and walk rate balloon to 15.9%. He is allowing 1.69 home runs per nine innings.
Brewers broke a three game losing streak with their 5-4 win on Tuesday. Reds had played to over in eight straight prior to pushing the closing number. Their bullpen sits with an ERA of 4.89 and WHIP 1.43. Play Milwaukee and Cincinnati over nine.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Guardians at White Sox—Aaron Civale to start for the Guardians. Civale in five starts has an ERA of 9.45 with WHIP 1.70. The righthander has been hurt again by the home run ball with 1.80 per nine innings. Strikeouts at 22.2% and walk rate 6.1%. Line drive contact at 22.7%.
White Sox start Vince Velasquez. The righthander in five starts has an ERA of 3.97 with WHIP 1.37. Strikeouts down a bit at 21.2% with 9.1% walk rate. He has limited his home run damage to 1.19 per nine innings almost half of last season. Cleveland had won eight of nine prior to their 4-1 defeat on Tuesday. White Sox have won seven of eight. Can’t back Civale with his current form. Play Chicago -130.
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Marlins at Diamondbacks—Sandy Alcantara to start for Miami. Alcantara in six starts carries an ERA of 3.03 and WHIP 1.32. The righthander good velocity of 97.4 MPH with a 21.4% strikeout rate. Walks are high at 11%. Ground ball rate is 46.8%.
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona. Kelly in six starts has an ERA of 1.22 and WHIP 1.03. The righty has a strikeout rate of 23% with good control at 6.1% walk rate. He is dealing 44.7% ground ball rate and has not allowed a home run.
Marlins have dropped nine of ten with their 9-3 defeat on Tuesday. Diamondbacks have won seven of eight. Play Arizona -114.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Phillies at Mariners—Bailey Falter expected starter for Philadelphia. Falter in four appearances carries an ERA of 4.91 and WHIP 1.36. Lack of work sent him back to the minors. He has pitched 5 1/3rd scoreless innings in the minors. In his short sample in the Major this season Falter a strikeout rate of 9.7% and 6.5% walk rate. He is allowing 2.45 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 6.62 which suggest a higher ERA should these numbers remain the same.
Logan Gilbert the starter for the Mariners. Gilbert in six starts carries an ERA of 1.36 and WHIP 1.09. Strikeout rate is 24.8% with walk rate of 8.3%. He is allowing 38.6% ground balls. Limited home run damage. Phillies have dropped six of eight with their 5-4 defeat on Tuesday. Philadelphia bullpen an ERA of 4.30. Play Seattle.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Rockies at Giants—Chad Kuhl to start for Colorado. Kuhl in five starts has an ERA of 1.82 with WHIP 0.84. Strikeouts are at 19.8% with 8.1% walks. Good rate on ground balls at 43.8%. Home runs are limited.
Alex Cobb the starter for the Giants. Cobb in four starts has allowed eight earned runs in 15 innings of work. Good strikeout rate of 31.9% with 8.7% walks. Velocity is up to 94.8 MPH and limits home run damage. His FIP is 2.21 which suggests a considerable drop in ERA should these numbers hold.
Rockies have lost four of five on this trip with their 9-2 defeat on Tuesday. Giants have won four straight as their offense picks up and also facing weaker pitching staffs. Play San Francisco run line -1.5 runs at +106.
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Cubs at Padres—Mark Leiter expected to start for San Diego. Leiter in four appearances has allowed nine earned runs in 10 1/3rd innings. He has been crushed by a home run rate of 1.74 per nine innings with 14.3% walk rate.
Nick Martinez to start for San Diego. Martinez in five starts carries an ERA of 3.38 and WHIP 1.43. Strikeout rate of 19.6% but walk rate high at 11.6%. He is allowing 1.69 home runs per nine innings. Cubs have lost eight of their with their 5-4 defeat on Tuesday. Padres have won five of seven. Play San Diego.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. LA Angels MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Rays at Angels—Shane McClanahan to start for the Rays. McClanahan in six starts carries an ERA of 3.06 and WHIP 0.99. Strikeout rate is 36.7% with 7% walks and 59.2% grounders. He does allow 1.39 home runs per nine innings.
Shohei Ohtani to start for LAA. Ohtani In five starts posts an ERA of 3.08 with WHIP 1.03. Strikeout rate sits at 4.6% and limits home run damage. Rays have lost three straight getting no hit in a 12-0 defeat. Angels have won six of seven. Play LA Angels -117.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Mets at Nationals—On the mound for New York is Tyler Megill. The righthander in six starts carries an ERA of 2.43 and WHIP 0.90. Megill posts a 27.7% strikeout rate and 45.2% ground ball. He does limit home run damage.
Aaron Sanchez to start for Washington. Sanchez has started three games this season surrendering thirteen earned runs in 13 2/3rd innings. He started three games in Triple A where he posted an ERA of 3.60 and WHIP 1.47.
The righthander pitches to high contact but good control at 5% walk rate. He has allowed 1.32 home runs per nine innings. With ground ball rate at 52.3%. His FIP is 4.54 reflecting a possible significant lowering of his ERA should his numbers remain the same. Mets have won five of seven with their 4-2 win on Tuesday.
Nationals have dropped five of six. New York is crushing right handed pitching. Nationals bullpen an ERA of 4.09. Play New York on run line -1.5 runs at -110.
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Red Sox at Braves—Nathan Eovaldi to start for the Red Sox. Eovaldi in six starts carries an ERA of 2.94 and WHIP 1.07. His strikeout rate is 26.3% with 4.4% walks. He has been hurt with the home run ball with 2.14 per nine innings.
Ian Anderson starts for Atlanta. Anderson in five starts has an ERA of 4.01 with WHIP 1.38. The righthander has seen a dip in his strikeout rate to 17% with 14.2% walk rate. Home runs sit at 1.09 per nine innings.
Red Sox had lost seven of eight prior to their 9-4 win on Tuesday. Red Sox bullpen an ERA of 4.19. Control a huge issue for Anderson. Play Boston +114.
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Athletics at Tigers—Zach Logue the starter for the Athletics. Logue has worked two games this season allowing two earned runs in 6 1/3rd innings. He has four appearances in Triple a posting an ERA of 5.63 and WHIP 1.81 in 16 innings with five home runs allowed.
Joey Wentz the starter for Detroit. Wentz makes his MLB debut here. The lefty started five games in Triple A posting an ERA of 4.12 and WHIP 1.09. He did allow 1.87 home runs per nine innings. He has spent parts of seven seasons in the minors.
Control has been a major issue the past two seasons. They split a doubleheader on Tuesday. Athletics batting .208 against lefty’s and Tigers .266 plus have the better bullpen. Play Detroit -116.
Baltimore Orioles vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Orioles at Cardinals—Spenser Watkins the starter for the Orioles. Watkins in five starts has an ERA of 3.22 and WHIP 1.39. The righthander pitches to high contact with 10.3% strikeouts and 10.3% walk rate. He does allow 1.21 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 5.54 which signals a significant rise in his ERA should these numbers remain.
Miles Mikolas the starter for St Louis. Mikolas in six starts carries an ERA of 1.53 and WHIP 0.99. Strikeouts up to 19.9% and limits home run damage. He allows 45.2% ground balls. Orioles have won five of six with their 5-3 win on Tuesday. Cardinals have dropped three straight. Orioles bullpen has performed well. Play Baltimore +190.
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Astros at Twins—Jose Urquidy to start for Houston. Urquidy in five starts posts an ERA of 4.56 and WHIP 1.36. The righty pitches to high contact but good control. He does allow 1.40 home runs per nine innings.
Chris Archer to start for the Twins. Archer in five starts carries an ERA of 3.26 with WHIP 1.29. Archer a good strikeout rate of 24.1% but walk rate of 10.8%. He has been crushed by the home run ball with 2.33 per nine innings. His FIP is 5.76 which suggest a significant rise in ERA if his numbers stay the same.
Astros have won eight straight with their 5-0 win on Tuesday. Their pitching staff has performed outstanding. They have gone under in nine of ten. Both bullpens have been good. Archer FIP a concern to look under here. Play Houston -118.
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers MLB Pick Prediction 5/11/2022
Royals at Rangers—Brady Singer to start for the Royals. Singer in three starts has allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3rd innings. He has worked 7 2/3rd in the minors giving up one run in 7 2/3rd innings. In his short MLB sample this year the strikeout rate is 23.1% with good control.
Home runs sit at 1.59 per nine innings. A.J. Alexy to start for Texas. Alexy makes his 2022 debut after six starts in Triple A where the compiled an ERA of 5.04 with WHIP 1.76. He walked 20 batters in 25 innings allowing four homers. KC have lost eight of ten dropping a 6-4 decision on Tuesday. Rangers have won six of eight. KC bullpen an ERA of 4.60 and WHIP 1.44. Play Texas.
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