Free MLB Picks For Today 5/3/2022
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Braves at Mets—We will look at Game 1 of this doubleheader. Charlie Morton to start for the Braves. Morton in four starts has allowed fourteen earned runs in 18 innings of work. The righthander has seen his strikeout rate fall to 17.4% with walk rate of 12.8%. His ground ball rate down and surrendering 1.50 home runs per nine innings.
Carlos Carrasco the starter for the Mets. Carrasco in four starts allowed ten earned runs in 17 innings. The righthander has seen his strikeout rate increase to 25.6% with walk rate lower. He does have a 41.7% ground ball rate and limits homers. Atlanta took the opener of this series with the 5-2 win. Mets do a good job of hitting righthanders. Play New York.
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Padres at Guardians—Mike Clevinger to start for the Padres. He makes his 2022 debut with a stint on the DL with a knee. He last seen action in 2020 and was shut down due to Tommy John surgery. In three starts in the minors Clevinger allowed two earned runs with fifteen strikeouts in 8 2/3rd innings.
Past three seasons the righthander averaged an ERA of 2.79 and WHIP 1.19. Zach Plesac the starter for the Guardians. Plesac in four starts allowed 9 earned runs in 21 1/3rd innings. The righty is pitching to high contact with a strikeout rate of 13.3% with ground ball rate down. He is giving up higher line drive contact and giving up 1.27 home runs per nine innings.
Padres have won five of six on this trip taking two off three in Pittsburgh. Guardians return home salvaging the final three of their ten game road trip losing the first seven. Play San Diego -140.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Diamondbacks at Marlins—Humberto Castellanos the starter for the Diamondbacks. Castellanos in five outings allowed nine earned runs in fifteen innings pitched. He pitches to high contact with 12.9% strikeout rate with control issues at 9.7% walk rate. Velocity is down and so is his ground ball rate.
Castellanos surrendering 24.4% line drive rate. Trevor Rogers to throw for Miami. Rogers in four starts has given up ten earned runs in 17 2/3rd innings. Strikeouts have dipped to 18.4% with walk rate of 11.8%. No homers allowed.
Arizona took the opener of this series 5-4 for their five win in seven games. Marlins have lost two straight after a seven game win streak. Diamondbacks batting only .179 with struggles in the bullpen. Play Miami.
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Rangers at Phillies—Glen Otto to start for Texas. Otto in two starts has allowed three earned runs in 9 1/3rd innings. He started the season at Triple A and in two starts allowed no runs in seven innings with nine strikeouts. With this short sample Otto has a 27% strikeout rate with 50% ground balls.
Ranger Suarez to start for the Phillies. Suarez in four starts allowed nine earned runs in 18 1/3rd innings. The lefty strikeouts down at 14.5% with 9.6% walk rate. Ground balls still good at 51.6%. Rangers open this series after taking two of three at home to Atlanta. They do a better job hitting lefty’s. Phillies dropped two of three in New York after the 10-6 loss at the Mets Sunday. Play Texas +145.
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Twins at Orioles—Joe Ryan to start for Minnesota. Ryan in four starts allowed three earned runs in 23 innings of work. The righthander has posted a 30.1% strikeout rate with 36.7% ground balls. Line drive rate only 10.2%. Bruce Zimmermann to go for Baltimore. Zimmermann has four starts allowing two earned runs in 19 1/3rd innings.
The lefty has posted a 26.3% strikeout rate with 43.1% ground balls. Concern is 27.5% line drives. Twins have won nine of ten with their 2-1 win in the opener. Orioles have lost six of eight. Play Baltimore and Minnesota under seven.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Yankees at Blue Jays—Jameson Taillon to start for New York. Taillon in four starts has allowed seven earned runs in 19 1/3rd innings. Strikeout rate is down to 21% but ground balls up at 42.4% with good control. Home run rate is 1.40 per nine innings.
Alek Manoah will start for Toronto. Manoah in four starts has allowed four earned runs in 25 innings of work. A strikeout rate of 25.8% with 34.4% ground balls. His fastball reaches 93.9 MPH. He has dominated this Yankees lineup. Play Toronto -134.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Pirates at Tigers—Bryse Wilson to start for Pittsburgh. Wilson in four appearances allowed eight earned runs in 15 1/3rd innings. He pitches to high contact but 42.6% ground ball rate. Control an issue with a 12.1% walk rate.
Michael Pineda throws for the Tigers. Pineda in two starts allowed four earned runs in ten innings. With this short sample the righthander is pitching to high contact with 10.3% strikeout rate but 42.9% ground balls.
Pirates have lost five of six with their 5-2 loss on Sunday. Tigers have dropped seven of eight with their 6-4 loss at the Dodgers Sunday. Tigers batting only .217 against righthanders. Detroit bullpen has been outstanding. Play Detroit and Pittsburgh under eight.
LA Angels vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Angels at Red Sox—Noah Syndergaard to start for LAA. Syndergaard in three starts has allowed four earned runs in seventeen innings. The righthander has a strikeout rate of 16.4% and a good ground ball rate of 58%. Line drive contact only 85.
Michael Wacha to start for Boston. Wacha in four starts has allowed four earned runs in 20 1/3rd innings. Veteran with a strikeout rate of 21.3% but walk rate 11.3%. He has seen a rise in ground balls at 42.6%. Angels split a four game series at the White Sox. They had won seven of eight prior to their loss on Monday.
Red Sox open this series dropping two of three at Baltimore. The return home losing seven of ten on their road trip. Play LA Angels -125.
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Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
White Sox at Cubs—Michael Kopech to start for the White Sox. Kopech in four starts has allowed three earned runs in nineteen innings. Strikeouts at 24.7% but walk rate of 12.3%. Drew Smyly starting for the Cubs. The lefty in four starts has allowed six earned runs in 19 1/3rd innings. Smyly pitches to high contact but good control with 54.8% ground ball rate. Line drive rate only 8.1%.
There has been a dip in velocity and Smyly giving up 1.86 home runs per nine innings. White Sox hitting .277 against lefty’s. White Sox split a four game home series with the Angels. Cubs had lost seven of nine until their 2-0 win at Milwaukee on Sunday. Cubs have been held to two runs or fewer in five of six. Play White Sox -141.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Reds at Brewers—Tyler Mahle to start for the Reds. Mahle in five starts has allowed sixteen earned runs in 22 1/3rd innings. Mahle a walk rate of 10.8% with line drive rate of 23.9%. Strikeouts are down. Brandon Woodruff to throw for the Brewers. Woodruff in four starts has given up eleven earned runs in 18 2/3rd innings.
All the damage was done on the road as he has allowed no runs in eleven innings at home Reds have lost 19 of 22. The yare batting .199 as a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.48. Play Milwaukee on run line -1.5 runs at -114.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Mariners at Astros—Chris Flexen to start for Seattle. Flexen in four starts allowed nine earned runs in 24 innings of work. Strikeout rate down to 15.6% with ground balls down to 39.7%. Velocity has dipped. Cristian Javier to start for Houston.
Javier in four appearances allowed two earned runs in 13 1/3rd innings. The righthander a strikeout rate of 31.4% with good control. He limits homers and line drive rate lower. Mariners have lost five of six with the 3-0 defeat in the opener. Astros have won five of seven. Play Houston -150.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Cardinals at Royals—Dakota Hudson to start for St Louis. Hudson in four starts allowed six earned runs in 19 2/3rd innings. Strikeouts at 18.2% but control and issue with 11.7% walk rate. Ground ball good at 43.8%. Brad Keller to start for KC. Keller in four starts has allowed six earned runs in 24 2/3rd innings.
Control good with 55.9% ground ball rate and 18.9% strikeouts. Line drive rate down. St Louis split a four game home series with Arizona. Royals have lost eight of ten getting swept at home to the Yankees. KC bullpen has struggled. Play St Louis -112.
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Nationals at Rockies—Erick Fedde to start for Washington. Fedde in four starts allowed twelve earned runs in 20 innings of work. The righthander a strikeout rate of 23.5% with walk rate of 9.9%. Home run ball has hurt Fedde in his career and carries a 1.50 per nine inning rate on the season. German Marquez to throw for the Rockies. Marquez in four starts allowed thirteen earned runs in 21 innings of work.
Strikeouts have plummeted to 14.7% with good control and 51.9% ground ball rate. He surrenders 1.71 home runs per nine innings. Nationals did take two of three at San Francisco.
Rockies swept a three game home series to Cincinnati. Colorado has won nine of thirteen at home. Fedde tough to back. Play Colorado on the run line -1.5 runs at +120.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Rays at Athletics—Ryan Yarbrough to start for Tampa Bay. Yarbrough expected to make his 2022 debut coming off a groin injury. He worked three innings in the minors in rehab allowing one earned run with four strikeouts but six walks. He posted an ERA of 5.11 in 2021 with 1.45 home run per nine innings and 24.4% line drive rate. Paul Blackburn to start for Oakland. Blackburn in four starts allowed three earned runs in 20 innings of work.
Strikeouts up to 24.7% with good control and 56.6% ground balls. Rays have won six of nine with their 6-1 win on Monday. Athletics have dropped six of seven at home. Oakland bats only .200 against lefty’s. Play Tampa Bay and Oakland under.
San Francisco Giants vs. LA Dodgers MLB Pick Prediction 5/3/2022
Giants at Dodgers—Carlos Rodon to start for San Francisco. The lefty in four starts allowed three earned runs in 23 innings of work. Rodon has a sick 43.2% strikeout rate with 34.1% ground balls with low line drives. No homers allowed. Julio Urias to start for LAD. Urias in four starts allowed five earned runs in eighteen innings. The lefthander has seen a drop in velocity and strikeout rate down to 20.5%. Control an issue with walk rate of 11%.
Giants have lost three of four. LAD has been held to three runs or fewer in four of eight. Both offenses struggle hitting lefthanders and getting good work from their pen. Play San Francisco +126.
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